Swing state polling roundup at Kos looks great

[Adenoid_Hynkel]

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/18/1146731/-Swing-state-polls-turn-to-Obama

getting back to where we were pre-debates - and president over 50 in quite a few of them:

Colorado (PPP, 10/16-18): Obama 50, Romney 47
Florida (Newsmax/Zogby, 10/14-16): Obama 47, Romney 44
Iowa (Marist/NBC, 10/15-17): Obama 51, Romney 43
Michigan (EPIC-MRA, 10/17): Obama 52, Romney 46
North Carolina (Rasmussen, 10/17): Obama 46, Romney 52
Ohio (Rasmussen, 10/17): Obama 49, Romney 48
Ohio (SurveyUSA, 10/12-15): Obama 45, Romney 42
Virginia (PPP, 10/15-16): Obama 49, Romney 48
Wisconsin (Marist/NBC, 10/15-17): Obama 51, Romney 45

Toss the Rasmussen +R garbage and it looks even better - North Carolina is the only one Obama's down in, and it's likely closer and still winnable

Florida is probably still a big question mark, as Zogby's polls are weird

and bear in mind that a lot of these were taken before Obama trounced Mitt on Tuesday

[SCliberal091294]

1. Forget NC...

I think the Obama campaign should move out of NC. Put half in Virginia and the others elsewhere. The campaign only needs Nevada, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Ohio to win. Also go for NH and CO.

[CoffeeCat]

2. I agree...pull out of NC...

...and focus on Ohio.

Iowa is in the bag. I'm in Iowa and there's no doubt Obama will win here.

Early voting is very heavy and Obama has a 5:1 advantage!!

[LisaL]

3. I am not ready to give up on NC.

[ProfessionalLeftist]

7. Rmoney already pulled out of NC because they feel they've got it won

They moved to Ohio.

Obama shouldn't waste anymore time in that bassackwards state either. They want Romney, an asshole non-taxpaying Repub governor (who also won't release his returns) and a Repub legislature. NC is in for some MAJOR destruction. Idiots.

[LisaL]

8. They are already voting in higher numbers than they did in 2008.

[ProfessionalLeftist]

10. I read that and I hope I'm wrong

I hope NC pulls another one for the Blue Team. But I dunnoooo.

[LisaL]

11. They are certainly out there voting.

???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????

[DCBob]

4. WTF are you talking about?? NC is very much in play.

and if Romney pulls out then its easy pickings.

[LisaL]

5. Agreed.

We need to GOTV.

[CoffeeCat]

6. Is Romney talking about pulling out of NC?

I said pull out of NC because we are behind by 7, according to the latest polls. If we could focus on OH, PA, WI, MI, NV and VA--and cement those in our column--I could see pulling out of NC.

But hey, if we could win it, we should try and stay, for sure.

[DCBob]

9. supposedly..

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=154212

[ProSense]

13. Wrong! Clearly, you haven't

checked the trend in NC:

On Oct 1, SurveyUSA had Obama up 2 point.

Since then, PPP issued a poll showing Romney up 2 points.

Additionally, Rasmussen has issued three polls showing Romney up 4 points, 3 points and 6 points.

The only other poll in the period since Oct 1 is Gravis, which puts Romney up 9 points.

Now here is the problem: Rasmussen, which is primarily responsible for the huge shift to Romney having issued three polls post Oct 1, has had Romney ahead the entire GE:

May, Romney up 8 points
June, Romney up 3 points
August, Romney up 5 points
September, Romney up 6 points


Now, other polling prior to Oct 1, grouped by poll

ARG: Romny up 4 points.

PPP:
Late Sept, tie
Early Sept, Obama up 1 point
August, Obama up 3 points

High Point:
Early Sept, Obama up 4 points
Late August (w/SurveyUSA), Romney up 3 points.

Civitas:
Mid Sept, Obama up 4 points
Early Sept (w/SurveyUSA), Romney up 10 points.


More polls: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/nc/north_carolina_romney_vs_obama-1784.html

It's not clear to me that the lead Romney enjoys post Oct 1 is significant or real because it's based mostly on Rasmussen.

[courseofhistory]

12. Great News! n/t