2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumMichigan Poll: Romney 48% Obama 46%
Oh god, what the hell is going on!? How can people be falling for Romney? Romney of all people?! Jesus Christ this is a disaster!
Ok, I made that up. No such poll exists. But I do wonder if I gave anyone a panic attack. Honestly I don't know what is up with this place today. Why has all of the poll anxiety returned? All I see is one completely ridiculous Gallup poll that is so laughable that it probably doesn't even deserve mentioning, and a bunch of other polls that show Obama slightly ahead or the race tied. In the past week, we have gone from polls showing Romney up by 2-3 points, to Obama by 1-3 points. Why are we still freaking out? My god, the debate was less than 2 days ago, the one that all reputable sources (i.e. not CNN) showed was a pretty big Obama win and one where Romney fucked up horribly at points. That is 1 day of post debate polling that we have seen so far. What did we expect? To wake up yesterday morning and find Obama ahead by 15 points? These things take time to sink in. It took nearly a week for Romney's bounce to really show up in the polls. It took a few days for Biden's performance to have any impact. We are moving in the right direction. Despite what Fox and Wolf Blitzer will tell you, things are shifting back to Obama. However, it will take time for the dust to settle. Don't expect polling results that violate the space-time continuum to show up because Romney said he has binders full of women.
Give it a few days and chill the fuck out. The constant meltdowns over every poll that comes out is getting tiresome.
Maximumnegro
(1,134 posts)scheming daemons
(25,487 posts)Maximumnegro
(1,134 posts)to be positive. If Jim Jones was handing out kool-aid folks'd be asking him to make it a double.
Surya Gayatri
(15,445 posts)Doctor Jack
(3,072 posts)There is nothing to be nervous about.
scheming daemons
(25,487 posts)LisaL
(46,857 posts)Next thing we know, he will be claiming Romney is up in CA.
Doctor Jack
(3,072 posts)or whatever.
speedoo
(11,229 posts)And piss a bunch of us off.
woolldog
(8,791 posts)I can safely put this poster on ignore now.
LisaL
(46,857 posts)grasswire
(50,130 posts)Sugarcoated
(8,125 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(100,466 posts)LisaL
(46,857 posts)TroyD
(4,551 posts)Never heard of them before.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/mi/michigan_romney_vs_obama-1811.html
JiminyJominy
(340 posts)I seriously woulda jumped off a cliff if this had been true. Please don't do that.
Now I need to go find the Malox.
Lost-in-FL
(7,093 posts)Sugarcoated
(8,125 posts)"Concern" about Michigan?
abumbyanyothername
(2,711 posts)is that we can all go home and start drinking.
Cause if Obama can't beat "Let Detroit Go Bankrupt" in MI, there is really nothing to fight for.
lunamagica
(9,967 posts)Sorry, I'm an anxious person and a worrier by nature. But I try not to post too much so as no to bring others down with me.
However you deserve this
Mutiny In Heaven
(550 posts)I do believe that we retain an advantage in this race, and must avoid the temptation to panic. Panic if you cannot get to the polls or Gallup-esque numbers become the norm, but until then, save it. Panic if Romney is taking the oath of office instead of wistfully dreaming of what could've been over a bowl of oatmeal on January 21st, 2013.
tarheelsunc
(2,117 posts)smorkingapple
(827 posts)Doctor Jack
(3,072 posts)If in mid-october of 2008, i said that McCain was ahead in Michigan by 2. I think most would have laughed it off without going through the momentary panic. Sure things are closer now but have we really freaked ourselves out to the point where we would believe such things? Does anyone here actually think Romney has the advantage, especially to the point where Michigan would be in play?
Things are not that bad. And not only are they not that bad, but it seems Obama is rather good shape going into the next few weeks. The prediction markets think he is going to win, most polls show him leading nationally, and the state polls show he has a large advantage in the electoral vote. I understand the concern. President Romney would be a gut wrenching disaster. I would rather have Bush for 4 more years than this sociopath. But must we act like we are 10 points behind and all hope is lost, when everything seems to be pointing to an Obama victory?
Cha
(306,394 posts)on because I had just seen a viable Michigan poll that has Pres Obama with a healthy lead in MI and mitt's twits have pulled out of the beautiful state of Michigan.
I thought you got a hold of a bad poll, Doctor Jack, and I was going to help you out.
Impious
(42 posts)I agree with the point of your post, but deliberately misleading titles shouldn't be allowed.
shayes51
(1,105 posts)ProudProgressiveNow
(6,165 posts)Ell09
(100 posts)Every once in awhile a poll in Michigan will show a D candidate behind, or only slightly ahead, only for the race to be called quickly after the polls close for the Democratic candidate.
As for the poll anxiety you are describing, I admit I have it. I haven't been posting, but I am checking every poll (and Intrade) hoping for signs that the President is opening up a comfortable lead. It doesn't seem that long ago that we seemed to be in very good shape in Florida and another wave election was much more likely than a loss.
I probably watch too much CNN, but they have really been spinning HARD for Romney post-debate as if it is there goal to prevent any sort of 2nd debate bounce for the President. It's the exact opposite of what they were doing post the first debate where they were kissing the feet of the winner of the debate.
I am a little worried about the Obama campaign going to the "binders full of women" card as I don't think that's a strong attack and a much better one (on the same issue) would be to attack Romney for saying that women needed flexible schedules to be home to cook dinner! I would think that would be a much better route to widening the gender gap, but that's just my armchair analysis.
MassedPole
(242 posts)TroyD
(4,551 posts)So the headline could have been true. . .
center rising
(971 posts)AtomicKitten
(46,585 posts)politicaljack78
(312 posts)Don't be a Romney, read everything through. If you want to be predictive, get out there and work the phones, get people to vote, drive people to vote, make sure everyone you know is registered, spread the word on social media and let's rock this thing !
MjolnirTime
(1,800 posts)Rochester
(838 posts)"I SAVED YOUR JOB"
Doctor Jack
(3,072 posts)Obama is up by close to 9 points on average. I think 538 has Obama around a 95% chance if winning
Blueprogress
(64 posts)I was shocked when I saw the title and 7 recs. I thought why the heck would people on du rec a poll where Obama is losing Michigan? I agree Doc, the poll panic on du has gotten out of hand.