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Sat Mar 19, 2016, 08:04 PM

A Look at the Patterns of the Democratic Primary and Why They Support a Sanders Comeback

A Look at the Patterns of the Democratic Primary and Why They Support a Sanders Comeback
By Jackxter
Saturday Mar 19, 2016 ∑ 6:25 AM EST



Let me be terse in my introduction so I can get straight to the juicy bits (and because itís 5:00 AM here and Iím about ready to pass out). Anyway, Iíve skimmed articles on this website before but never gotten into its internal politics. I know there has been a lot of flak thrown between both the Clinton and Sanders camps and I want no part in it. I come here to simply set the record straight as a person who has near-obsessively observed the interesting, twisting patterns of the presidential race.

This article is not meant to be an attack on Hillary supporters or Hillary Clinton herself, nor is it meant to discourage them. That being said, if you are a Hillary supporter, since this article may do so, it would probably be wise to stop reading now. This article is meant to encourage Sanders supporters, as I fear many may be demoralized at the moment, not do the opposite to you.

Now, letís get down to business. To begin, let me lay down some obvious and some not-so-obvious points.

1. Bernie Sanders has won every state with an African American demographic below 8% with the exception of Iowa, a virtual tie. This is not meant to be a racist statement: African Americans simply tend to go for Hillary instead of Bernie, and thatís greatly affected the race.

2. Bernie has either won or come within a 5% margin of victory or outright won in every state except Virginia with an above average (of the national average) amount of internet users , or put another way, above average high-speed internet infrastructure. [Related Data] ó Page 11 gives the clearest view.

3. In every state (save for Iowa) with a combination of these two factors, Bernie has won by 15%+ margins.

4. Bernie has had a youth turnout in recent states at near President Obama levels. In Illinois, a state that has a large African American population and one that Bernie *lost* while Obama won, nearly 547,600 of people between the ages of 18-35 compared to Obamaís 633,000 turned out to vote for the respective candidates. It can be reasoned that Bernie will do better in states where the average age of the population is below the national median. [Related Data] (Note: Minor factor)

5. Contrary to what one may expect, Bernie has either won or come close in every state except Virginia that has an above average household income above the United States average. [Related Data]. (Note: Minor factor)

Note: Hillary has done well with Hispanics in Texas and Florida yet not in Nevada. It is not yet known where they will go in the Southwest. This is going to be a real wildcard in the race, though it wonít be as big of a factor working against Bernie as the African American vote given what we know so far. If they turn out en masse for Hillary, itíll decrease Sandersí chances in New Mexico, Peurto Rico, and Arizona, and decrease his victory gain in California.

Because of all this, one can make a semi-accurate prediction of where the rest of the race will go. Obviously, this is only an estimation, and how much he loses or wins in the remaining states will determine if he wins or not, but let me give you a picture on what will likely happen and list the factors that work for Bernie. The only thing that could possibly change this is if Hillaryís campaign does really well or bombs in some regard and likewise with Bernie.

Arizona: Bernie will either win or lose by a 5% margin. [Factor 1, 4]

Idaho: Bernie will win by a 15%+ margin. [Factor 1, 4]

Utah: Bernie will win by a 15%+ margin. [Factor 3, 4, 5]

Alaska: Bernie will win by a 15%+ margin. [Factor 3, 4, 5]

Hawaii: Bernie will win by a 15%+ margin. [Factor 3, 5]

Washington: Bernie will win by a 15%+ margin. [Factor 3, 4, 5]

Wisconsin: Bernie will win by a 15%+ margin. [Factor 3, 5]

Wyoming: Bernie will win by a 15%+ margin. [Factor 3, 4, 5]

New York: Bernie will either win or lose between 5% him or 10% Clinton. [Factor 2]

Connecticut: Bernie will win or lose within a 5% margin. [Factor 2, 5]

Delaware: Bernie will lose by around a 15%+ margin. [Factor 5]

Maryland: Bernie will win or lose by around a 5% margin. [Factor 2, 5]

Pennsylvania: Bernie will win or lose within a 5% margin. [Factor 2, 5]

Rhode Island: Bernie will win by a 15%+ margin. [Factor 3, 5]

Indiana: Bernie will lose by around 10-15% [Factor 4]

Guam: Bernie will lose by around a 10%+ margin. [A major lack of internet connectivity cancels out Factor 1]

West Virginia: Bernie will win or tie within a margin of 5%. [Factor 1]

Kentucky: Bernie will win or lose within a factor of 5%. [Factor 1]

Oregon: Bernie will win by a margin of 15%+ [Factor 3, 5]

Virgin Islands: Bernie will lose by a 10%+ margin. [A major lack of internet connectivity cancels out Factor 1]

Puerto Rico: Bernie will win or lose within a 5% margin. [Factor 1]

California: Bernie will win by a margin of 20%+ [Factor 3, 4, 5]

Montana: Bernie will win by a margin of 10%+ [Factor 1]

New Jersey: Bernie will win or lose within a margin of 5%. [Factor 2, 5]

New Mexico: Bernie will win or lose within a margin of 5%. [1, 4]

North Dakota: Bernie will win by a margin of 15%+ [Factor 3, 4, 5]

South Dakota: Bernie will win by a margin of 15%+ [Factor 1, 5]

District of Columbia: Bernie will lose by around 10%+ [Factor 5]

There you have it, folks. On the lower end of optimistic projections, Bernie wins by a tight 30 delegates. However, itís very likely that, taking states that he has the potential to win big in similar to Kansas, he could score higher. Scoring high in small states and losing by, say, 5% in New York/Pennsylvania would still earn him a win. Thereís also the scenario in which he knocks Clinton out of the water in Washington and Oregon, which is something that any Clinton fan still reading this should probably be worried about given how progressive those two states are.

In conclusion, You can say heís doomed all you want, but the patterns of the race give Sanders a fair chance as long as his supporters keep pushing. To any Bernie fans still dazed by the hit on the 15th, time to put some pep in your step soldiers! Youíve got phone banking to do!

Important Note: I made an error when I was tallying up delegates. Bernie will need to win either Washington or Oregon by 25% to break away from Hillary. Preferably, heíll need to win one of those two states by either larger margins or a number of the smaller states by larger margins in order to negate potential losses in New York/Pennsylvania.

Bonus Section: Comment Section Myth Busting.

Myth #1: Bernie does terrible among Democrats! Heís only good in states where Independents can save his butt!

Fact #1: Not true. Bernie has won in Nebraska, Maine, Oklahoma, Colorado, and Kansas. These are all either closed caucuses or closed primaries. Only Democrats can vote in them.

Myth #2: Bernie underperformed in the most recent primaries and heíll do it again!

Fact #2: Nope. In Illinois and Missouri, he overperformed aggregate polling by a small amount. In North Carolina he overperformed by a large amount. Only in Florida and Ohio did he underperform, but only by a small amount.

Myth #3: Bernieís gonna lose Arizona cus heís down in the polls! Heís also going to lose California!

Fact #3: Heís down in the poll. One poll. In Arizona. And we all know how much singular polls can predict this primary season. And yes, Sanders is down in the polls in CaliforniaÖ the last one taken at the beginning of January.

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/3/19/1503653/-A-Look-at-the-Patterns-of-the-Democratic-Primary-and-Why-They-Support-a-Sanders-Comeback

7 replies, 2060 views

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Reply A Look at the Patterns of the Democratic Primary and Why They Support a Sanders Comeback (Original post)
FourScore Mar 2016 OP
k8conant Mar 2016 #1
grossproffit Mar 2016 #3
grasswire Mar 2016 #2
DrDan Mar 2016 #4
hrmjustin Mar 2016 #5
marions ghost Mar 2016 #6
silvershadow Mar 2016 #7


Response to k8conant (Reply #1)

Sat Mar 19, 2016, 08:36 PM

3. It's not until May 10th and that poll is from 2/22. Hopefully, new polls will be available soon.

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Response to FourScore (Original post)

Sat Mar 19, 2016, 08:30 PM

2. very interesting, thank you! nt

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Response to FourScore (Original post)

Sat Mar 19, 2016, 08:40 PM

4. you do realize that those big states where he MIGHT win by 5%

(NY, NJ, PA) puts him further behind. He needs to win BIG in every remaining state.

15-point wins in SD, ND, ID, Utah, WY helps him very little.

But you knew that.

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Response to FourScore (Original post)

Sat Mar 19, 2016, 08:41 PM

5. Hillary will win NY and the April 26th states big.

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Response to FourScore (Original post)

Sat Mar 19, 2016, 09:02 PM

6. OK so it'll be interesting to see how close

this projection comes.

thx

That Yuge turnout for Bernie in Utah makes me want to believe this....

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Response to FourScore (Original post)

Sat Mar 19, 2016, 10:13 PM

7. I recommended. I am taking you at your word because

 

i'm no longer mess with Kos

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