2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumGore won the popular vote - yet Gallup showed an 11 point lead for Bush on this day in 2000.
http://www.pollingreport.com/wh2gen1.htm10/18-20/00
Gore = 40
Bush = 51
Polled = 718 "Likely Voters"
Thanks to DemocratSinceBirth for this information.


unblock
(54,539 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(100,549 posts)They were showing three times the lead for Bush* on 10/18/00 that ABC/WAPO was.
mzmolly
(51,899 posts)Do you have an answer to Unblock's question below?
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=153345
I looked and can't find any info beyond this: http://www.pollingreport.com/2004.htm -
Thanks in advance.
mzmolly
(51,899 posts)Need my coffee today!
DemocratSinceBirth
(100,549 posts)TY for the mention.
mzmolly
(51,899 posts)Sorry bout that!
bigdarryl
(13,190 posts)just curious
mzmolly
(51,899 posts)but will check on that later. Unless someone beats me to it.
mzmolly
(51,899 posts)I can't find the info, sorry. I'll check with DSB and see if he knows.
WI_DEM
(33,497 posts)we combatting the lies in their ads?
since i live in ca, i have no idea except what i read.
ny times today discusses a romney ad in swing states that is
geared to women...plays big time on lies about the
debt/deficit, and says r is not against abortion, etc.
i hope we are combatting these deficit/debt ads with our own?
debt/deficit will go up under R and it was Bush who created the current one:
"2001-08: Republicans, including Ryan, repeatedly vote to increase the deficit during the George Bush administration. This includes votes in favor of two huge tax cuts, two huge wars, and a big Medicare expansion, none of which are paid for.
January 20, 2009: Barack Obama is inaugurated.
October 2009: After nine months of focusing on stimulus and job creation, Obama begins his famous "pivot" toward long-term deficit reduction.
January 2010: A Senate proposal to create a bipartisan deficit commission is filibustered. Politico explains what happened: "The tepid support from Democratic leaders contributed to the loss, but more decisive was the number of Republicans switching under pressure from their party to block the measure. Six Republicans who had co-sponsored the bill as recently as last month voted against it."
One day later: In his State of the Union address, Obama announces that he'll act on his own: "I've called for a bipartisan fiscal commission, modeled on a proposal by Republican Judd Gregg and Democrat Kent Conrad....Yesterday, the Senate blocked a bill that would have created this commission. So I'll issue an executive order that will allow us to go forward, because I refuse to pass this problem on to another generation of Americans." This is the birth of the Bowles-Simpson Commission.
March 2010: Republicans appoint six members to the commission. One of them is Paul Ryan.
December, 2010: The Bowles-Simpson commission fails to agree on a plan. All three of the House Republican appointees vote against it, including Paul Ryan.
July 9, 2011: House Speaker John Boehner abandons negotiations with President Obama over an ambitious plan to cut the deficit by $4 trillion. The Washington Post explains why: "Boehner (R-Ohio) told Obama that their plan to 'go big'....was crumbling under Obamas insistence on significant new tax revenue." One of the key opponents of compromise on taxes was Paul Ryan.
July 22, 2011: Boehner abandons yet another set of deficit negotiations when it becomes clear that House Republicans won't support tax increases of any kind. Sam Stein quotes a Republican aide explaining that Ryan was, once again, one of the key opponents: "There were certain people ... who thought the pursuit of the grand bargain was a useless pursuit because it could never pass anyway. Ryan was one of them. Ryan is opposed to tax increases."
August 2012: The Romney/Ryan campaign explicitly endorses tax cuts, but declines to take a stand on how they would pay for this by closing tax loopholes. The campaign also explicitly rejects any cuts in defense spending. Their Medicare plan proposes no cuts at all for a decade, and after that it proposes the same growth rate cap as Obamacare. However, unlike Obamacare, it doesn't include any plausible mechanisms for meeting that cap. Social Security reform is not addressed at all."
from mother jones
mzmolly
(51,899 posts)
Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)WI_DEM
(33,497 posts)50/44 positive Obama--three day sample.
Dawson Leery
(19,392 posts)Gallup was off by: Gore +8.5, Bush -3.2
Final Result:
Gore: 48.4%
Bush: 47.9%
Gallup was off by 11.6%.
DemocratSinceBirth
(100,549 posts)My larger point is they weren't doing a good job of actually portraying the race.
RobinA
(10,242 posts)was the only major pollster who called that one correctly. If I remember correctly, and I'm pretty sure I do.
mzmolly
(51,899 posts)or within a small MOE.
Butterbean
(1,014 posts)mzmolly
(51,899 posts)Butterbean
(1,014 posts)
DemocratSinceBirth
(100,549 posts)His final CA poll had Gore up by only 1%. He won it by 11% or 12%. Without a blow out win in CA, Gore would have certainly lost the pop vote. He won CA by > 1,300,000 votes. He won the U.S.A. by 500,000 or so. Do the math. A close win in CA and his pop vote victory disappears.
creeksneakers2
(7,634 posts)Gallup had a significant over estimation of the GOP vote.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251103761
mzmolly
(51,899 posts)thank you.