INSIDE the Gallup number from yesterday where etch a sketch was leading 51-45%

[Hawaii Hiker]

Though I'm surprised Obama is only leading 52-48% in the east...Other than NH, Obama will CRUSH Dracula, i mean Romney in the East and New England...

From electoral-vote.com 10/18:


Romney Has Massive Lead Over Obama in the South
Yesterday's Gallup poll shows Mitt Romney with his largest lead over over President Obama, 51% to 45%. The poll was taken before the second presidential debate. While this looks great for Romney, Markos Moulitsas has taken a more detailed look at the poll internals for Tuesday, which show a somewhat different picture.

Region Obama Romney Margin
East 52% 48% Obama +4%
Midwest 52% 48% Obama +4%
South 39% 61% Romney +22%
West 53% 47% Obama +6%


In other words, Obama is going to get creamed in Texas, Alabama, Mississippi, and possibly Florida, but Colorado and Nevada may not be so bad for him.

[mgcgulfcoast]

1. why is gallup the gold standard now?

all i hear on tv is romney up 6 on gallup. even the right leaning rasmussen has romney +1 nationally but Obama is +3 in swing states. media is ignoring this.

[Mutiny In Heaven]

2. Rasmussen is a lot better than Gallup, especially as you get closer to elections

Both were shit in 2010, but 2008, Rasmussen was far superior to Gallup, which horrendously overestimated Obama's winning margin (as it overestimated the GOP's in '10).

[Andy Stanton]

3. Gallup will change quickly

Gallup has shown massive swings several times this election cycle. Sorry Gallup, a reliable poll would not show a several point swing in a couple of days.

My prediction - By Monday Gallup will show an even race or Obama by 1 or 2.

[mgcgulfcoast]

4. then they will drop gallup, lol

maybe the media is against Obama

[Jennicut]

5. The east numbers ARE weird.

I live in Connecticut and I can say that the East is probably Obama's strongest support. New England, NY, NJ, PA. Double digit #'s in most of New England and NY and NJ. PA is probably anywhere from 6 to 10 points for Obama. Only NH is close. Who the heck is Gallup polling in the East?

IBC/Tipp's #'s for the east are: 54% to 37%. Don't know if they included MD, DE and VA but it seems much more reasonable.

[fugop]

7. Yea, East is weird.

All I can think is they're including Virginia and North Carolina as East (note that it isn't Northeast). That would make it look closer.

I just can't figure out why the Grand Ol' South is so anti-Obama tho. I'm thinking and thinking and ... What oh what could it be that makes the South dislike him so overwhelmingly? (I don't need a snark tag here do I?)

[Hawaii Hiker]

9. The east numbers are very weird, AND i wonder if pollsters

poll cell phone users....MANY people don't even use a land line anymore....I'd like to see a poll that includes cell phone users...

[smorkingapple]

6. I need to know what defines "East" but I'm not gonna bash Gallup.

Does it include SC, WV as well? Are they overlapping South with East at all? Why no MidWest section?

Hard to really read into this without seeing the detail.

I'm not going to start bashing Gallup when all of us were doing dances when they showed Obama up nationally. I'm sure their polls are accurate in terms of who they're polling. I think they are an outlier right now but if we're honest with ourselves the race is a LOT closer than it should be and it's all cause of that disastrous debate.

[Mutiny In Heaven]

8. Gallup's LV screen was likely never great for Obama

They just weren't showing it - Romney gained maybe a couple of points; for most of the year, Gallup's RV had anywhere from about a five point Obama lead to Romney up by two or three.

Fact is, Gallup's LV polls were egregiously off in both 2008 and 2010, albeit in different directions. There's no reason to suspect they're anything but one of the worst pollsters out there. I'm not talking conspiracies, just plain old faulty models.

[smorkingapple]

15. Their expanded LV model captures enthusiasm too which is why it's currently so bad

Again, effect of 1st debate. Republicans now smell blood.... This means they'll tell pollsters they're definitely voting while our side is probably hemming and hawing about how strong their voter intentions are, which we do normally anyway... Add this to the massive margins of victory Romney will get in the South(which are >'er than what Obama will get in his safe states) and this isn't a surprise to me.

My personal opinion is all these LV models are flawed just because the past few elections have been covered more than the previous 10 combined with the internet, 24/7 cable news, etc. If they're factoring in past voting actions and incorporating that somehow, I don't think it's that valid. More people vote now for the 1st time than ever before, and on a more consistent election to election basis, mostly because more people actually care about what's happening in the nation now, both left and right.

I'm guessing the RV models are probably better indicators of the true state of race but GOTV will be huge come gameday. I'm sure Obama team knows this and has metrics around measuring it vs just using pure polling.

[Jennicut]

10. There is a midwest section.

The East may include those states, making the South's #'s worse.

Gallup is frankly the only current poll showing Romney above 4. Which makes me question them, rightly so. I question any outliers. The race is close. 6 points is not close. 6 points is an electoral win on par with Obama's in 2008. Romney would have to be ahead in CO, NV, IA, OH, WI, PA to make the same equivalent #'s. And per the state polling from all sorts of other polling companies, he is not.

[bornskeptic]

11. I suspect they may be putting the whole eastern seaboard in the East,

including not only VA and NC, but also SC, GA, and FL. If that's the case, both the East number and the South number look more reasonable.

[yellowcanine]

12. Obama might lose Florida but he won't get creamed there.

Not possible given the large Hispanic vote, with a decreasing portion of that vote being Cuban.

[smorkingapple]

13. A loss is a loss. No moral victories esp give the amount of EC votes up for grabs...

Anyone feel good about only losing FL by 500 and whatever votes in 200?

[yellowcanine]

16. You missed my point. The state will be in play for Obama so this poll is suspect if it is

saying otherwise. And Romney HAS to win Florida. Obama doesn't.

[falcon97]

14. Nate Silver wrote that there was a 20 point swing

for Gore in Gallup in 2010. Apparently they have a lot of volatility.