Black Dems Aren’t Turning Out For Hillary Like They Did For Obama

[Purveyor]

Presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton has to worry about a steep drop-off of the black vote that could imperil her chances of winning the White House in November, an analysis has found.

The number of African-Americans who voted in Tuesday’s primaries plummeted by an estimated 40 percent in Ohio, 38 percent in Florida and 34 percent in North Carolina compared with the 2008 Democratic primary when Barack Obama was on the ballot, reported the advocacy group Black Votes Matter.

Record numbers of African-American voters flocked to the polls to elect and re-elect America’s first black president.

Analysts expected some drop-off, but not the enormous numbers recorded Tuesday.

“Hillary’s repeated trouncing of Bernie Sanders with the black vote has masked the alarming fact that there has been a dramatic drop-off in black turnout in the Democratic primaries,” said Charlie King, founder of the Black Voters Matter super PAC.

more...

http://nypost.com/2016/03/18/black-dems-arent-turning-out-for-hillary-like-they-did-for-obama/

[Raster]

1. Chickens coming home to roost, part one.

[hack89]

2. 538: Primary Turnout Means Nothing For The General Election

But Democrats shouldn’t worry. Republicans shouldn’t celebrate. As others have pointed out, voter turnout is an indication of the competitiveness of a primary contest, not of what will happen in the general election. The GOP presidential primary is more competitive than the Democratic race.

Indeed, history suggests that there is no relationship between primary turnout and the general election outcome. You can see this on the most basic level by looking at raw turnout in years in which both parties had competitive primaries.

Still, the 2008 campaign is instructive in another way. Democratic primary turnout was high because it was a very competitive contest. People turn out to vote when they think their vote may make a difference.

So it shouldn’t be surprising that Republican turnout is higher than Democratic turnout this year. Hillary Clinton is a commanding front-runner on the Democratic side, while the front-runner on the Republican side has earned only one-third of the vote and less than half the delegates allocated so far. Voters are turning out for the more competitive contest.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/primary-turnout-means-nothing-for-the-general-election/

[uponit7771]

9. this is fact based and well...some don't deal in facts too good

[bigtree]

3. voter totals are down, overall, for all groups

...who is really surprised that these two white candidates don't draw the same number of blacks to the polls in a primary?

What's clear is that the republican campaign is going to motivate all Democrats to the polls in November, no matter the nominee.

[HooptieWagon]

10. It's clear republicans will turn out to vote against Clinton in Nov.

She doesn't get AAs to turn out in #s for her, she doesn't get youth, she doesn't get the liberal left, and she doesn't get Independants. That doesn't bode well for her winning a single swing state.

[bigtree]

12. no more, no less than any other Democrat, probably less than Obama with black voters

...question always is, how many will turn out against a republican opponent? If you don't know the answer to that, you're not paying attention where it counts.

[Native]

16. Hmmmm

Hillary is getting my vote and I've been a registered independent for 40 years. My two college-aged children are registered democrats and plan to vote for Hillary as well. We live in Florida.

[Politicalboi]

4. Great news

They know she is NOT like Obama at all. At least Obama doesn't lie like she does. Hopefully they've looked at Bernie's past and they know who is the better choice.

[Uncle Joe]

5. I wonder how that compares to the turnout of people making over a 100k or 200k?

Thanks for the thread, Purveyor.

[Kip Humphrey]

6. Hillary's base doesn't turn out for Hillary (setting aside Hillary's Wall Street base for a moment)

Well, what a surprise!

Maybe it has something to do with Hillary...

Her high negatives, maybe?
Her constant flip-flopping such that virtually no one really knows what Hillary stands for?
She and her husband's record of actions that have been contrary to her base's best interests?
All that money?

[Lizzie Poppet]

7. No surprise.

And the youth vote won't come close to even their lower 2012 numbers for her.

November bloodbath...

[Native]

19. the youth vote is already

mobilizing against and protesting Trump. In my opinion, Trump will be the only mobilizing force the dems will need.

[JoePhilly]

8. Are they turning out for Bernie like they did for Obama?

Nope.

[HooptieWagon]

11. But youth/ Independants are turning out for Sanders.

That appears the Dem party's best chance in Nov., and for future party growth. Brush off youth/Independants, and those potential Democratic votes are gone for a generation.

[JI7]

14. not in the numbers comparable to 2008

[oasis]

13. The Supreme Court dust up should sway even more voters to back Hillary. nt

[MaggieD]

17. Exactly

SMH.

[ljm2002]

23. Why does it not surprise me...

...to see you agreeing wholeheartedly with "Name Removed"...

[Beacool]

18. And to think that Sanders is doing so well with AA voters.....

The NY Post is only good for lining a bird's cage. If you lived in this area you would know that.

[Jitter65]

20. Evidently they didn't turn out for Bernie either! nt

[CalvinballPro]

21. She did better than Obama's numbers in South Carolina though.

[book_worm]

22. Well that means Bernie would really need to worry since he has done even worse.

[democrattotheend]

24. I wouldn't expect them to

I wouldn't expect them to turn out in as high numbers for either of the candidates we have this year. The historic significance of Obama's election, combined with the fact that he is a more engaging politician than either of our current candidates, brought out a lot of people who may not turn out this year.

That is not to say this is not a concern. Having such a large black turnout combined with winning an even larger share than usual of the black vote is a big part of what enabled Obama to win states like Virginia and North Carolina (in 2008).