2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumRmoney: "He said that by now we'd have unemployment at 5.4%." WTF?
WTF? Did anybody else hear this last night? I haven't read anything about anywhere from anybody, so I checked the transcript to be sure. Yep. He said O said it would be 5.4 percent.
Wasn't the magic number 8 percent? Rmoney hammered that number over and over. Now that unemployment is below 8 percent, it appears Rmoney has changed the magic number.
link: http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/10/16/transcript-second-presidential-debate/comment-page-8/
Excerpt:
difference between where it is and 5.4 percent is 9 million Americans
without work.
I wasn't the one that said 5.4 percent. This was the president's
plan. Didn't get there.
liberal N proud
(60,334 posts)but there is no context as to when he said that.
Again, the republicans fail to mention the mess their little boy George boiled over in September of that year.
AtomicKitten
(46,585 posts)I was astounded to hear it in the second debate,
partially because Rmoney was hammering the 8% for so long.
I thought he just changed it because unemployment had dropped below 8%.
I wonder where he got the 5.4% figure?
liberal N proud
(60,334 posts)His ass?
Avalux
(35,015 posts)Exactly. His ass.
AtomicKitten
(46,585 posts)LiberalElite
(14,691 posts)I love that popcorn eating cat!
AtomicKitten
(46,585 posts)and welcome to DU
yellowcanine
(35,699 posts)But it caught so much flak Mitt quietly started using the $25, 000 figure, all the while acting real casual like the actual number is not important.
Cha
(297,154 posts)handed him last night.
AtomicKitten
(46,585 posts)Firebirds01
(576 posts)Like george lucas choosing "order 66" for revenge of the sith. Just made up cause it sounds good.
Basically they said 'SHIT Obama got unemployment under 8%....quick make something up." So they chose 5.4 because it sounds random enough that it must be true...right?
If I were a republican I would hop I would be insulted by the constant and overbearing lies that the party candidates tell. But here is the thing, regular republicans are ok with lies because they think that lies must be told to win and defeat the 'liberal bias media.' that is the beauty behind it....lying is alright because its a 'necessary evile' to counter the spin. republicans are so oppressed and need to lie, ya know.
fuck off Mitt.
Cosmocat
(14,564 posts)you can't even keep up with this guy.
literally.
exboyfil
(17,862 posts)http://live.boston.com/Event/Live_blog_Second_debate_between_President_Obama_and_Mitt_Romney/52176772
FACT CHECK: Obama promised a 5.4 percent unemployment rate by now: Romney's claim is based on a report Obama's Council of Economic Advisers prepared before Obama took office. The council predicted that passage of Obamas stimulus package would prevent unemployment from rising above 8 percent -- a fact Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney cites frequently -- and would bring it down to the mid-5s in the third quarter of 2012.
AtomicKitten
(46,585 posts)Thanks for the heads-up on this. This is waaaaaaaay before they realized how bad the recession was. It looks pretty anorexic to me. Romney is really, really reaching on this one.
Claim: Romney said Obama said unemployment would be 5.4% by now.
Facts: Two economists who would soon join the Obama administration issued a report in early January 2009 before Obama's inauguration predicting that an economic stimulus plan would prevent unemployment from rising above 8% and would push it down to about 5.4% by the third quarter of 2012. However, the economists underestimated the severity of the recession. Even without the stimulus, they forecast in that report that the jobless rate would be 5.9% by now.
Last year, the Commerce Department said the slump was far worse than it had estimated, with the economy contracting almost 9% in the fourth quarter of 2008 and 5.3% in the first quarter of 2009.
exboyfil
(17,862 posts)GDP growth rates.
Recession of 1980 -0.3%
Recession of 1982 -2.0%
Recession of 1991 -0.3%
Recession of 2009 -3.5%
The amazing thing is that we climbed out of the hole so fast. We were in a glidepath for destruction. We had a quarter of -8.9% which you mentioned.
Cha
(297,154 posts)Vowed he would be a one term president and the gop house hadn't done everything in its power to make it so then maybe we would be that low.
Ryan was part of that gang that met the night of January 21, 2008.
exboyfil
(17,862 posts)if Romney brings it up again. Romney could respond that his "bipartisanship" approach we make sure that this does not happen (which is garbage.).
Cha
(297,154 posts)he's a filthy liar.
ProSense
(116,464 posts)the projection was based on a high rate of nearly 8 percent, projecting that the figure would drop to below 6 percent by this time.
Secondly, the rate climbed to about 10 percent in mid 2009. It's down to 7.8 percent.
What Mittwit isn't going to mention is the despicable idiots in his party who, along with him, have been rooting for failure and sabotaging the recovery effort.
Macroeconomic Advisers on the American Jobs Act, proposed a year ago:
We estimate that the American Jobs Act (AJA), if enacted, would give a significant boost to GDP and employment over the near-term.
-The various tax cuts aimed at raising workers after-tax income and encouraging hiring and investing, combined with the spending increases aimed at maintaining state & local employment and funding infrastructure modernization, would:
-Boost the level of GDP by 1.3% by the end of 2012, and by 0.2% by the end of 2013.
-Raise nonfarm establishment employment by 1.3 million by the end of 2012 and 0.8 million by the end of 2013, relative to the baseline
Of course, it that had happened, Obama would be more or less a lock for reelection. Instead, having blocked the presidents economic plans, Republicans can point to weak job growth and claim that the presidents policies have failed.
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/08/the-jobs-program-that-wasnt/
In September 2011, Republicans blocked the American Jobs Act and up to 2 million jobs
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021294027
By PAUL KRUGMAN
Does anyone remember the American Jobs Act? A year ago President Obama proposed boosting the economy with a combination of tax cuts and spending increases, aimed in particular at sustaining state and local government employment. Independent analysts reacted favorably. For example, the consulting firm Macroeconomic Advisers estimated that the act would add 1.3 million jobs by the end of 2012.
There were good reasons for these positive assessments. Although youd never know it from political debate, worldwide experience since the financial crisis struck in 2008 has overwhelmingly confirmed the proposition that fiscal policy works, that temporary increases in spending boost employment in a depressed economy (and that spending cuts increase unemployment). The Jobs Act would have been just what the doctor ordered.
But the bill went nowhere, of course, blocked by Republicans in Congress. And now, having prevented Mr. Obama from implementing any of his policies, those same Republicans are pointing to disappointing job numbers and declaring that the presidents policies have failed.
Think of it as a two-part strategy. First, obstruct any and all efforts to strengthen the economy, then exploit the economys weakness for political gain. If this strategy sounds cynical, thats because it is. Yet its the G.O.P.s best chance for victory in November.
- more -
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/10/opinion/krugman-obstruct-and-exploit.html
- more -
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/05/opinion/krugman-states-of-depression.html
AtomicKitten
(46,585 posts)Rmoney abandoned the 8% claim and embraced the 5.4% claim to punctuate his bullshit, and this kind of bait and switch crap is starting to get noticed. Jon Huntsman was right when he called him a well-lubricated weather vane.
former9thward
(31,985 posts)This was in support of the stimulus bill.
http://www.economy.com/mark-zandi/documents/The_Job_Impact_of_the_American_Recovery_and_Reinvestment_Plan.pdf
On Jan. 10, 2009 Obama gave a radio address in support of the report. I asked my nominee for Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, Dr. Christina Romer, and the Vice President-Elect's Chief Economic Adviser, Dr. Jared Bernstein, to conduct a rigorous analysis of this plan and come up with projections of how many jobs it will create and what kind of jobs they will be. Today, I am releasing a report of their findings so that the American people can see exactly what this plan will mean for their families, their communities, and our economy.
http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=85391&st=jobs&st1=#axzz1OPNVsvHl
The 5.8% figure is accurate. It was a projection which did not work out.
AtomicKitten
(46,585 posts)A prediction, again, made before O was even inaugurated.
former9thward
(31,985 posts)Not every prediction comes true this was one of them.
AtomicKitten
(46,585 posts)I don't mean to be obtuse. Maybe I'm just not getting it but it seems to me both the 8% and 5.4% predictions were made before they had ascertained exactly how deep the recession was. I don't understand how anyone could hold Obama responsible and take him to task for something no more reliable than an astrological forecast.
Rosa Luxemburg
(28,627 posts)NCLefty
(3,678 posts)Tom Rinaldo
(22,912 posts)Our recovery is slower than the President initially forcast, but it turns out that the recession itself was far worse than how experts were characterizing it when Obama actually made his recovery projections. That fact was revealed in revised figures documenting the actual GDP loss during the recession that were retroactively released by the U.S. Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis:
The overall pattern of quarterly changes during the downturn was similar in both the revised and previously published estimates, though the revised estimates show larger decreases for 2008:Q4 (-8.9 percent compared with -6.8 percent) and for 2009:Q1 (-6.7 percent compared with -4.9 percent).
http://www.bea.gov/faq/index.cfm?faq_id=1004
And why was the economy so god damned awful in the first place when Obama took office? Because of the failed economic policies of the last Republican Administration.