Thu Mar 17, 2016, 12:46 AM

kristopher (29,798 posts)

Removing the super delegates for clarity

Required to win nomination:
2383
Delegates available in upcoming contests:
2308

Sanders Pledged Delegates + (required to win):
825 + (1558) = 2383

Needs 67.5% of remaining to clinch nomination

Clinton Pledged Delegates + (required to win):
1139 + (1244) = 2383

Needs 54% of remaining to clinch nomination

IMO that looks like a high probability of a brokered convention. That is when the super delegates become relevant; until then their preference is irrelevant. And if/when we get there, the value of their current commitment is far less important than the lay of the political landscape at the time of the convention.

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70 replies	Author	Time	Post
Removing the super delegates for clarity (Original post)	kristopher	Mar 2016	OP
Good post. Thanks for sharing.	Kittycat	Mar 2016	#1
A majority of pledged delegates is just over 2000	jfern	Mar 2016	#2
True. But that isn't what is required to win in first round vote.	kristopher	Mar 2016	#14
Super-D's vote on the first ballot.	Adrahil	Mar 2016	#26
They can't really be counted yet.	pdsimdars	Mar 2016	#44
Clinton already has 400 superdelegates endorsing her	geek tragedy	Mar 2016	#3
Well, no, you can't do that now. Superdelegates are a part of Sanders strategy	stevenleser	Mar 2016	#4
And by the way there is close to zero chance of a brokered convention in a two person race.	stevenleser	Mar 2016	#5
If Hillary gets less than 54% AND Bernie gets less than 67.5% where does that lead...	kristopher	Mar 2016	#9
Since all delegates vote it leads to one of the two going over the threshold.	stevenleser	Mar 2016	#12
Ok, I thought I'd heard differently, but I accept your word.	kristopher	Mar 2016	#15
We're not republicans, we've got super delegates.	Firebrand Gary	Mar 2016	#6
That does the opposite of providing clarity	BainsBane	Mar 2016	#7
You are free to keep believing that fairytale.	kristopher	Mar 2016	#10
.	BainsBane	Mar 2016	#11
It's a fairy tale.	kristopher	Mar 2016	#17
I think he needs 74.6%	JaneyVee	Mar 2016	#30
I included his superdelegates	BainsBane	Mar 2016	#58
I have been finding it very curious how the msm always talks about the possibility of a GOP brokered	jillan	Mar 2016	#8
If you understand the process, you know that with only two candidates, its virtually impossible	stevenleser	Mar 2016	#13
This is why we must educate the supers	RobertEarl	Mar 2016	#16
Before you start educating Superdelegates...	brooklynite	Mar 2016	#27
Aren't you getting tired	leftynyc	Mar 2016	#42
My math is different.	LiberalFighter	Mar 2016	#18
You mean the assumptions are different	kristopher	Mar 2016	#19
I get what you're doing but...	Cheese Sandwich	Mar 2016	#21
hillary can sleepwak to get the 42% of the remaining pledge delegats...its the math	beachbum bob	Mar 2016	#28
There was only a 62 pledged delegate spread in 2008.	joshcryer	Mar 2016	#20
She won't need Sanders delegates	BainsBane	Mar 2016	#22
Sanders will release his delegates.	joshcryer	Mar 2016	#23
Ted Kennedy actually tried to get delegates released from their first round pledges in 80 and failed	DemocratSinceBirth	Mar 2016	#29
The supers are mostly symbolic.	joshcryer	Mar 2016	#32
Ted Kennedy wanted for the delegates to be released from their first round pledges.	DemocratSinceBirth	Mar 2016	#34
Yes, everyone seems to cloud the issue with their slanted theorizing	pdsimdars	Mar 2016	#46
I don't see anywhere that the minority heavy states benefit more than others.	LiberalFighter	Mar 2016	#61
I'm talking of why they go earlier.	joshcryer	Mar 2016	#69
I don't see how the Mikulski Commission brought about those states going earlier.	LiberalFighter	Mar 2016	#70
But, Bernie blew it with the superdelegates	Onlooker	Mar 2016	#24
I find it disingenuous for Bernie to even be on the ballot after all this time.	LiberalFighter	Mar 2016	#62
Superdelegate votes are counted on the first ballot.	BlueStateLib	Mar 2016	#25
Sort of, but with a two-candidate race like this it should really be just a formality.	eomer	Mar 2016	#31
I agree, but that isn't the line the news media is promoting to help Hillary.	kristopher	Mar 2016	#35
True, but I don't think it helps to go along with their framing.	eomer	Mar 2016	#45
And that is why, if Bernie really does pull it off, he will have beaten "the establishment"	pdsimdars	Mar 2016	#48
LOL. Brokered convention. Sorry, she's up by 300+ pledged. It's a done deal.	DanTex	Mar 2016	#33
No where will you find those thoughts in my posts.	kristopher	Mar 2016	#36
Sanders will lose the closed primaries in AZ, NY, PA, and MD.	hrmjustin	Mar 2016	#37
That may be true. Then again, maybe not.	kristopher	Mar 2016	#38
My point is these states have a large amount of delegates and Sanders does poorly among	hrmjustin	Mar 2016	#39
You actually don't have a point - just an opinion.	kristopher	Mar 2016	#40
Well on April 26th you will get my point.	hrmjustin	Mar 2016	#41
I always like to point out that the Democratic Party is only 31% of the electorate	pdsimdars	Mar 2016	#51
.. but are they 'winner take all' in terms of delegates?	Myrina	Mar 2016	#47
No but she will win them by double digits.	hrmjustin	Mar 2016	#49
Like she did the other night, and still only came away with 57 more delegates ...	Myrina	Mar 2016	#50
Not all the delegates have been distributed from Tuesday.	hrmjustin	Mar 2016	#52
It looks like the delegates from Tuesday are now all accounted.	LiberalFighter	Mar 2016	#64
Thanks.	hrmjustin	Mar 2016	#65
It is really not about losing states. (The media's fault)	LiberalFighter	Mar 2016	#63
With all the misleading posts about it being all over, it's nice to get real clarity. NUMBERS	pdsimdars	Mar 2016	#43
this OP is not clarity it is the opposite	jcgoldie	Mar 2016	#53
Fantastic Argument	DemocracyDirect	Mar 2016	#54
54% v. 57% and we're starting on states that are better for Bernie! Woot!	merrily	Mar 2016	#55
lol She doesnt need 54%	jcgoldie	Mar 2016	#56
Using numbers without the automatic delegates makes it easier.	LiberalFighter	Mar 2016	#66
I agree just throw out the superdelegates for the math	jcgoldie	Mar 2016	#68
+1	dana_b	Mar 2016	#60
Ignoring super delegates does not help Sanders	Gothmog	Mar 2016	#57
Even if Sanders wins every remaining state at 60%, and discounting supers entirely...	Tarc	Mar 2016	#59
Technically, most of the automatic delegates will not support Sanders.	LiberalFighter	Mar 2016	#67

Response to kristopher (Original post)

Thu Mar 17, 2016, 12:51 AM

Kittycat (10,493 posts)

1. Good post. Thanks for sharing.

With so much focus on what Bernie must overcome, it's interesting seeing what Hillary must. Side-by-side. Now we move in to his most favorable states. The dynamics have definitely shifted. The convention certainly will be interesting this year.

Removing the super delegates for clarity

1. Good post. Thanks for sharing.

2. A majority of pledged delegates is just over 2000

14. True. But that isn't what is required to win in first round vote.

26. Super-D's vote on the first ballot.

44. They can't really be counted yet.

3. Clinton already has 400 superdelegates endorsing her

4. Well, no, you can't do that now. Superdelegates are a part of Sanders strategy

5. And by the way there is close to zero chance of a brokered convention in a two person race.

9. If Hillary gets less than 54% AND Bernie gets less than 67.5% where does that lead...

12. Since all delegates vote it leads to one of the two going over the threshold.

15. Ok, I thought I'd heard differently, but I accept your word.

6. We're not republicans, we've got super delegates.

7. That does the opposite of providing clarity

10. You are free to keep believing that fairytale.

11. .

17. It's a fairy tale.

30. I think he needs 74.6%

58. I included his superdelegates

8. I have been finding it very curious how the msm always talks about the possibility of a GOP brokered

13. If you understand the process, you know that with only two candidates, its virtually impossible

16. This is why we must educate the supers

27. Before you start educating Superdelegates...

42. Aren't you getting tired

18. My math is different.

19. You mean the assumptions are different

21. I get what you're doing but...

28. hillary can sleepwak to get the 42% of the remaining pledge delegats...its the math

20. There was only a 62 pledged delegate spread in 2008.

22. She won't need Sanders delegates

23. Sanders will release his delegates.

29. Ted Kennedy actually tried to get delegates released from their first round pledges in 80 and failed

32. The supers are mostly symbolic.

34. Ted Kennedy wanted for the delegates to be released from their first round pledges.

46. Yes, everyone seems to cloud the issue with their slanted theorizing

61. I don't see anywhere that the minority heavy states benefit more than others.

69. I'm talking of why they go earlier.

70. I don't see how the Mikulski Commission brought about those states going earlier.

24. But, Bernie blew it with the superdelegates

62. I find it disingenuous for Bernie to even be on the ballot after all this time.

25. Superdelegate votes are counted on the first ballot.

31. Sort of, but with a two-candidate race like this it should really be just a formality.

35. I agree, but that isn't the line the news media is promoting to help Hillary.

45. True, but I don't think it helps to go along with their framing.

48. And that is why, if Bernie really does pull it off, he will have beaten "the establishment"

33. LOL. Brokered convention. Sorry, she's up by 300+ pledged. It's a done deal.

36. No where will you find those thoughts in my posts.

37. Sanders will lose the closed primaries in AZ, NY, PA, and MD.

38. That may be true. Then again, maybe not.

39. My point is these states have a large amount of delegates and Sanders does poorly among

40. You actually don't have a point - just an opinion.

41. Well on April 26th you will get my point.

51. I always like to point out that the Democratic Party is only 31% of the electorate

47. .. but are they 'winner take all' in terms of delegates?

49. No but she will win them by double digits.

50. Like she did the other night, and *still* only came away with 57 more delegates ...

52. Not all the delegates have been distributed from Tuesday.

64. It looks like the delegates from Tuesday are now all accounted.

65. Thanks.

63. It is really not about losing states. (The media's fault)

43. With all the misleading posts about it being all over, it's nice to get real clarity. NUMBERS

53. this OP is not clarity it is the opposite

54. Fantastic Argument

55. 54% v. 57% and we're starting on states that are better for Bernie! Woot!

56. lol She doesnt need 54%

66. Using numbers without the automatic delegates makes it easier.

68. I agree just throw out the superdelegates for the math

60. +1

57. Ignoring super delegates does not help Sanders

59. Even if Sanders wins every remaining state at 60%, and discounting supers entirely...

67. Technically, most of the automatic delegates will not support Sanders.

50. Like she did the other night, and still only came away with 57 more delegates ...