As we know Bernie is staying in for the duration, what's the point of the nonstop "math threads"

[whatchamacallit]

other than goading, crowing, and FUD?

[cosmicone]

1. To keep hopes (or lack thereof) realistic n/t

[whatchamacallit]

3. Lol. What an essential service you're providing

[bkkyosemite]

11. Hillary supporters can you just leave us alone?

[cosmicone]

70. I answered a question posed by the OP

If you want us to "leave you alone," don't ask questions.

[Karma13612]

15. my middle name is realistic.

But, a good chunk of the country hasn't voted yet.

[jfern]

43. We know the odds are against him

We don't need obnoxious people claiming it's all over when it's not.

[cosmicone]

73. Why hang on to a false hope which will

only result in a prolonged agony and frustration after each primary coming up where Bernie doesn't get 58% of the vote?

At least Weaver and Devine are getting paid handsomely to continue the charade out of your hard earned contributions. There is nothing in it for anyone to just continue this tragedy.

[Ken Burch]

81. Bernie's campaign is not a tragedy, and it's not about what Weaver and Devine want.

It's not as if Bernie shouldn't have run.

[cosmicone]

85. I see a perfectly good senator talked into running

and crashing his car in a ditch while Weaver and Devine laugh all the way to the bank.

I bet they told him he would be another Obama -- big, I mean BIG mistake!

[jfern]

86. Ridiculous, Bernie is still running for that actual chance he gets the nomination

[cosmicone]

93. There is a better chance of being hit by a meteor -- TWICE. n/t

[jfern]

99. The odds are against him, but that doesn't mean he doesn't have a chance

And you Hillary supporters are asses.

[Ken Burch]

87. He ran because the people wanted a candidate who spoke truth to power.

Weaver and Devine are just a couple of staffers. They aren't diabolical fiends.

Nothing would be better if Bernie hadn't run. And your candidate wasn't owed an uncontested nomination.

[cosmicone]

94. They were consulted and talked him into running. n/t

[Ken Burch]

95. You make it sound like Bernie is a puppet.

That's insulting and totally disrespectful to the man.

It would have been fundamentally wrong for HRC to be nominated without any opposition. That would have guaranteed that she wouldn't even have been a millimeter to the left of Bill.

Primaries are supposed to be competitive and a place for real debate.

[Stuckinthebush]

2. Because when people say he can win it all

They are ignoring math. So...math threads.

[whatchamacallit]

5. Not buying it

Thanks for trying.

[Stuckinthebush]

6. Not buying the math?

Oy vey.

[whatchamacallit]

10. Not buying the purpose of those posts

but you knew that.

[Stuckinthebush]

12. Not really

One never knows these days.

But it's actually true - the math posts are to explain the math. But believe what you will.

[whatchamacallit]

14. They are all essentially the same post

Everyone understands the probabilities involved. No need to state it over and over and over...

[Stuckinthebush]

34. As are the "why you want to post about math" posts

In reality, GDP is a silly place.

[whatchamacallit]

36. Well then carry on with the silly

[Stuckinthebush]

38. And you, good sir or madam!

[onenote]

44. If everyone understood the probabilities why are there posts implying it is an easy path to victory

for Bernie?

Those posts do no one any good. As a Sanders supporter I want to keep my hopes up, but I also want to remain grounded in reality and not have false hopes raised.

[liberal from boston]

55. Go Bernie

Thank you. Also Not buying it--sounds like it is an organized effort to push him out. (IMHO Clinton Campaign is worried). Senator Sanders Missouri vote was basically a tie & Illinois was quite close. If you watched his speech in Arizona to an enormous crowd you would know that Bernie is in this til the convention.

[kennetha]

82. Big Crowds don't mean big votes

How many big crowds did Bernie get in states where he's been crushed?

Fundamental error Sanders supporters make -- judging the power of the candidate by the size of his or her crowds.

I bet Bernie's average crowd dwarfs Hillary's but a LOT more people have voted for Hillary than for Bernie.

[jfern]

45. Math says he could still win the pledged delegates, so get lost

[Stuckinthebush]

49. Non Euclidian math

We can inscribe a triangle on a sphere and get more than 180 degrees in the angles.

Bernie can get 66% of remaining delegates, flip half of Hillarys supers and win the whole enchilada. Yep. It could happen.

Hugs to you.

[jfern]

66. Bernie only needs 58% of the remaining pledged delegates

[Stuckinthebush]

67. Assuming he can flip the supers

Sure. Those two things can happen.

[jfern]

68. I'm just talking about winning the pledged delegates

[Stuckinthebush]

71. Here ya go...

I did the math over here:


http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=1508431

[jfern]

72. Your attempt to discourage isn't working, he only needs 58% of remaining pledged delegates

[Stuckinthebush]

75. Oh, FFs

I don't care if you are discouraged, encouraged or itchy. Please vote for Bernie. Go for it. it really doesn't matter to us. In fact, we encourage you to vote your conscience.

The math is clear. He needs to flip supers and get 58% of the remaining votes. Both are impossible. But, carry on!

[peacebird]

80. Oh bushbaby, the supers WILL flip when Bernie gets the pledged delegates.

Your silly efforts to discourage us are just so much FAIL.

Hills will never be president.

[Stuckinthebush]

83. Nice mantra

Keep repeating it. It may help you deal with the sad.

Peace. Bird.

[peacebird]

89. bushbaby, Hills is a good friend of Kissinger and GWB. Not of We, the little people.

Sadly if you are not in the 1%, you simply will not matter.

I will fight for Bernie because he fights for us. The sad will be you Hilly folk, when you realize she has sold you down the river for her rich buds.

At least Bernie will TRY to help us.

[Stuckinthebush]

96. Excellent

That's the way to deal with dissonance!

[kennetha]

90. Like that's no biggie....

Like he's going to win New York and New Jersey and California and Pennsylvania by 58% or more.

Care to make a bet on that proposition?

For one thing, Bernie is going to basically drop out of the news. It's going to be all Trump vs the Repugnant establishment and all Clinton vs Trump from here on out.

Notice how they treated Bernie in his hour of defeat last night? More of that is coming. Plus with no more debates, he will only reach those already open to his message, hardly likely to win any new converts.

People will wonder if he is even still running. He'll pay for lots of paid advertising and draw the true blue to his rallies, especially in college towns, but basically he's had his 15 minutes.

Sorry about that.

[peacebird]

98. Hi ken, wondered when you would drop in. In case you hadn't noticed the Bernie Blackout was a thing

Long ago.

Still he continued to rise in the polls. And he has continued to this day. He will keep rising, and Hills will keep dropping. Even with media blackout Bernie has risen.

He raised more money than Hills in Jan and Feb. Pretty sure Marxh will be the same as he had over 27,500 donations after the March 15 contests.

[Half-Century Man]

103. Figures do not lie, but liars can figure.

It is our duty as citizens, a duty which transcends simple party membership, to select the best possible choices for public office. The office of a servant of the greater good, the major domo of the country's cadre of servants.
It is our duty to hold those elected accountable for their actions.
It is our duty to remember actions from the past which have, as of yet, no accounting.

[djean111]

4. goading, crowing, and FUD - that's right, actually.

Attempting to dishearten.
I don't see them much, I started using my ignore function today; it is lovely!

[AtomicKitten]

7. Thank you. It ain't over til it's over. And it ain't over.

[pat_k]

29. We're fighting to win, but ultimately it's about more than winning.

And this is what gets lost in all the "probabilities" talk. He has already accomplished amazing things. Regardless of numbers, there are good reasons for him to stay in through the convention:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511507143

[AtomicKitten]

51. the primary was front-loaded with Hillary-favorable states.

I've read analyses stating March 15th would be the high water mark of delegates for Hillary. Bernie-favorable states have yet to vote. The points you make in your link are excellent.

[liberal_at_heart]

8. They are trying to get people who haven't voted yet to give up. Some states like mine

will be caucusing which means we will be coerced into changing our vote because of "the math." I guarantee you there will be nothing Hillary supporters can say to me at the caucus that would change my vote.

[geek tragedy]

9. what's the point of GD: Primaries? nt

[bkkyosemite]

13. Hillary Supporter you just can't let up today can you...back off of us Bernie

supporters. You keep trying to stick it to us with the ha ha ha he can't win..As Bernie would say enough is enough.

[Fumesucker]

16. They want you to know that resistance is futile

[thereismore]

17. Bernie is a hero. Their math is just probabilities,

not certainties, and they can't bear it!

[noretreatnosurrender]

18. We All Know

the purpose of those childish threads. I don't even bother posting in those kind of threads. It's a waste of time but I have bookmarked a few of them to bring them back at a later time.

[MohRokTah]

19. The math is the math.

It is an undeniable truth.

[whatchamacallit]

20. Lets say your doctor tells you it's likely you have months to live

is it pointless to fight the odds?

[MohRokTah]

21. You just compared apples to meer cats

Biological factors and the truths of delegate math are about that dissimilar.

[whatchamacallit]

24. Truths? Until 51% is gained it's only a probability

It may be highly probable based statistical trends, but it's not yet mathematical certainty.

[MohRokTah]

33. Truths!

Mathematical Truth: If a denominator in an operation reduces over time while the numerator does not reduce at an identical rate, the result grows over time.

Sanders will need 59% of all pledged delegates in the remaining races in order to secure 50% + 1 of the pledged delegates.

If he does not secure 77 out of 131 delegates up for grabs on March 22, the hurdle goes above 60%. If he gets those 77 delegates, he still needs 59% of the remaining delegates.

Delegate math is harsh when you are behind.

By contrast, Hillary only needs 54 of those delegates to stay on track for 2026 pledged delegates, or 50% + 1. If she gets those 54 delegates, she only needs 41% of the remaining delegates to secure half of the pledged delegates. If she gets more, then the precentage requirement drops for her while increasing for Sanders.

This was the slow delegate math death march Hillary had to face in 2008. Even when she won, she lost because she was further behind in terms of the required percentage of the remaining delegates than before she won the contests.

Barack Obama's 2008 lead was NEVER as high as Hillary Clinton's 2016 lead is now.

[whatchamacallit]

35. Yeah, "if"

In the meantime how about you give the truth a rest.

[MohRokTah]

39. 59% is a complete blowout.

In most primaries, to receive 59% of the delegates one needs almost 2/3 of the votes.

Outside of Vermont, the Senator has not been able to achieve that sort of blowout. He did well in some states but not that sort of true blowout level consistently. Meanwhile the Secretary has achieved those numbers time and time again, and not in small states but in states with a vast number of delegates.

You are placing your entire hope on Sanders achieving a blowout in every remaining race. This is not a realistic expectation.

[whatchamacallit]

47. There's a stretch of road yet to travel

He's not ready to throw in the towel any earlier than Hillary was in '08. Deal with it.

[MohRokTah]

48. It's all over except for accepting it.

He simply will not be able to overcome the delegate math hurdles he needs to jump. It simply cannot happen.

He is currently at the same place Hillary was mid-May of 2008 in terms of the delegate math.

[whatchamacallit]

59. Well she had "acceptance" issues as well then

[MohRokTah]

61. I think she had accepted it by then.

There were less than three weeks left then.

But oh well, Kasich has been mathematically eliminated because he needs more delegates than there are left but he's still in it too.

[JonLeibowitz]

50. The comparison is apt. Many of us consider Clinton a cancer on progressivism.

[MohRokTah]

52. That's is an absurd assertion. eom

[JonLeibowitz]

60. No, it is not. n/t

[MohRokTah]

63. Yes, it very much is.

In fact, referring to it as absurd is being nice about it.

[MaggieD]

22. To show how foolish he is

[whatchamacallit]

26. So glad skinner sprang you

[MaggieD]

31. I'm sure you are disappointed you cannot censor the Hillary supporters

huh?

[stonecutter357]

58. umadbro.?

[whatchamacallit]

62. No, I will probably enjoy watching the ensuing and ultimately regrettable mayhem

that decision will bring.

[upaloopa]

23. Because it is not all about what you and Bernie want.

The primary is over per the math. We need to pivot to the general as Hillary and Trump have done.

You can send Bernie money so he can stay in as long as the money holds out but he can't win enough delegates to be nominated that is the math.

[liberal from boston]

65. Go Bernie

I am going now to act blue & donate. Why are you so persistent--you have no right to demand that Senator Sanders drop out. If you watched his speech in Arizona you know that Bernie was in great spirits & the energy, enthusiasm from in Bernie's words from the "Huge crowd" was infectious.

[upaloopa]

77. I said nothing about Sanders dropping out

He is not going to be the nominee. He needs 65% of the delegates in the next primaries. Hillary needs 36%.

Every time Bernie does not get 65% that percentage goes up. He will not get 65% in PA NY or CA to name 3.

So the math is against him.

If you want to not pay attention to that it is not my issue.

We need to elect a Dem in November to the White House. Hillary will be the nominee.

The primary is over, for us it is time to pivot to the general.

Do what you want but we are moving on.

I will donate to Hillary also.

[dana_b]

25. maybe we think that we'll go "oh hey... Bernie!!!

did you see this math?? You should drop out. Seriously, bro, why you hatin' on Hillary??"

I really have no idea. We're not going anywhere!!

Kind of like - we are the Leos and they are the Johnnys.

[Warren DeMontague]

27. I think some people want Sanders to quit not because it would help our party politically

But because they just want the opportunity to shut up everyone in GDP who disagrees with them, and they think a "settled" primary will mean that admin here will get rid of all their "enemies".

Not everyone, but some of the folks who confuse internet message board drama with real life.

[Myrina]

42. ^^ this ^^

Exactly.

[Kalidurga]

28. To show off that they can add Supers to pledged delegates to show insurmountable odds.

[RufusTFirefly]

30. I think you answered your own question.

[whatchamacallit]

32. twas rhetorical

[GoneFishin]

37. Because arguing about numbers is easier than discussing the immorality of imprisoning low level

offender POC for Wall Street profits, poisoning the drinking water of children and pregnant women with fracking fluids, or over throwing democratically elected leaders in South America because they won't hand over their stuff to neo-liberal vulture capitalists for fractions of pennies on the dollar.

[onehandle]

40. Math has a liberal bias. nt

[DanTex]

41. I probably wouldn't like math either if I was a Bernie supporter.

[whatchamacallit]

53. Maybe you meant 'the math'

... unless that was a shitty little dig at the intelligence of Sanders supporters in general.

[DrDan]

46. and what is the point of continuing to point out he is in "for the duration"

other than goading, crowing and FUD?

[whatchamacallit]

56. I'm sure we'll disagree about the chicken and egg

but I'm pretty certain most of them have been in response to the math inevitability posts.

[NowSam]

54. I think the Clinton folks must be scared to compete in the rest

Because they drum beat telling us to quite when there are still, what 29 contests left? Must be afraid to let us vote. California is Bern Country.

[upaloopa]

92. I live on the Central Coast of CA

CA is most likely split between the candidates. Bernie needs 65% of the rest of the delegates in the next primaries. Hillary needs 36%.

Bernie will not get 65% in NY or PA to name two. So by June 7 he will need more than 65% of CA to win the nomination. That just will not happen,

That is the math you don't want talked about.

We are moving on to the general. The sooner we do the better our chance of keeping the White House.

[NowSam]

101. Well feel free to do that

I am not moving on until the 29 contests are done or one drops out. If Bernie wins I'm happiest. If not buy he can deny her the clinch then we have a brokered convention and get another chance at an alternative.

[Depaysement]

57. To persuade us to give up

Accept and bow to your corporate masters. Love Big Brother or else.

[reddread]

64. they want to frighten less intelligent voters

they might need a better plan.

[Chichiri]

69. The purpose of the math threads is fourfold.

First, to soften the blow to Bernie supporters.

Second, to improve morale among my fellow Hillary supporters.

Third, to make Bernie supporters think twice about throwing their money against Hillary, rather than against Trump or their local GOP candidates.

And fourth, math is fun!

[whatchamacallit]

79. Haha, admitted psyops

Thanks for the info.

[Chichiri]

102. Well, anything that isn't psyops is physops . . .

. . . and as much as we all would like to reach through the internet and slap someone silly, there simply isn't a Kickstarter for it yet.

[NCTraveler]

74. The purpose is clear and I like it.

Less negative about each other, more positive about our own. It's a transition to the general. A slow transition.

[whatchamacallit]

76. Lol

Hillary will never be one of my own. Good luck.

[NCTraveler]

78. I didn't say she was.

I though I was pretty clear. I think you make my point in being stuck in negative thought.

You promote Sanders, I promote Clinton. More positive about our own.

[MineralMan]

84. Math good. Guesswork bad.

MineralMan speak truth to powerless.

[orpupilofnature57]

88. Discouragement, Desperate Dismissal, Iowa seemed like a 5000% win, MSM is the commercial for the 1%

and we buy it, take away the Super-Lobbyists, the South ,he's right there .

[PoliticAverse]

91. I don't believe politicians when they say they're in "until the end". Everyone says that.

The math is important because it can show when someone will actually have enough delegates to win.

Just remember probabilities are just that. And some are more probable than others.

[DemocracyDirect]

97. In a two person race that mathematical argument doesn't work. /nt

At the halfway point the difference established in the first half can be made up in the second half.

It's only over when one of the candidates exceeds half the number of total pledged delegates available.

And even then it's only the nomination that is over.

Every delegate then gets votes at the convention on the party platform.

The progressive movement will push forward!

Don't give them an inch.

All the way to Philadelphia!

Be the change you want to see in the world!
Be the Bern!

[Tarc]

100. Because the math argument beats the truthiness argument every time?

Discounting super-delegates for a moment and only looking at the pledged, if Sanders completely ran the table for the rest of the contests 60%-40%, he'd be up 2,030 to 1,940.

As soon as you start cutting into that with realistic numbers (HRC will take 80% of DC, 70% of KY, and I'll be generous and call NY and NJ a 50-50 split), then she's up 2000 to 1968.

I'm even gifting you 60-40's in AZ and CA, above.

Sorry, it's just not going to happen.

[corbettkroehler]

104. Throwing Good Money After Bad

I'm 100% in for Bernie but want to be cautious about the general election. If HRC wins the nomination, I want to be a part of stopping Drumpf.

I want the analysis of the delegate math to be sure that a path to victory remains. If it is closed, I need to stop donating because it would constitute throwing good money after bad.

[ruralsteve]

105. Some folks fall back on

BEAN COUNTING

when engagement on the issues has over-tired them, I suppose.

[brooklynite]

106. What's the point of all the "Hillary can't win the General Election" threads?

I think the point of being here is to discuss politics. That includes electoral prospects.

[whatchamacallit]

107. Fair enough

I agree it's similar.