# 2016 Postmortem

Related: About this forum# As we know Bernie is staying in for the duration, what's the point of the nonstop "math threads"

other than goading, crowing, and FUD?

**107 replies**= new reply since forum marked as read

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#### cosmicone

(11,014 posts)#### whatchamacallit

(15,558 posts)#### bkkyosemite

(5,792 posts)#### cosmicone

(11,014 posts)If you want us to "leave you alone," don't ask questions.

#### Karma13612

(4,655 posts)But, a good chunk of the country hasn't voted yet.

#### jfern

(5,204 posts)We don't need obnoxious people claiming it's all over when it's not.

#### cosmicone

(11,014 posts)only result in a prolonged agony and frustration after each primary coming up where Bernie doesn't get 58% of the vote?

At least Weaver and Devine are getting paid handsomely to continue the charade out of your hard earned contributions. There is nothing in it for anyone to just continue this tragedy.

#### Ken Burch

(50,254 posts)It's not as if Bernie shouldn't have run.

#### cosmicone

(11,014 posts)and crashing his car in a ditch while Weaver and Devine laugh all the way to the bank.

I bet they told him he would be another Obama -- big, I mean BIG mistake!

#### jfern

(5,204 posts)#### cosmicone

(11,014 posts)#### jfern

(5,204 posts)And you Hillary supporters are asses.

#### Ken Burch

(50,254 posts)Weaver and Devine are just a couple of staffers. They aren't diabolical fiends.

Nothing would be better if Bernie hadn't run. And your candidate wasn't owed an uncontested nomination.

#### cosmicone

(11,014 posts)#### Ken Burch

(50,254 posts)That's insulting and totally disrespectful to the man.

It would have been fundamentally wrong for HRC to be nominated without any opposition. That would have guaranteed that she wouldn't even have been a millimeter to the left of Bill.

Primaries are supposed to be competitive and a place for real debate.

#### Stuckinthebush

(10,990 posts)They are ignoring math. So...math threads.

#### whatchamacallit

(15,558 posts)Thanks for trying.

#### Stuckinthebush

(10,990 posts)Oy vey.

#### whatchamacallit

(15,558 posts)but you knew that.

#### Stuckinthebush

(10,990 posts)One never knows these days.

But it's actually true - the math posts are to explain the math. But believe what you will.

#### whatchamacallit

(15,558 posts)Everyone understands the probabilities involved. No need to state it over and over and over...

#### Stuckinthebush

(10,990 posts)In reality, GDP is a silly place.

#### whatchamacallit

(15,558 posts)#### Stuckinthebush

(10,990 posts)#### onenote

(44,086 posts)for Bernie?

Those posts do no one any good. As a Sanders supporter I want to keep my hopes up, but I also want to remain grounded in reality and not have false hopes raised.

#### liberal from boston

(856 posts)Thank you. Also Not buying it--sounds like it is an organized effort to push him out. (IMHO Clinton Campaign is worried). Senator Sanders Missouri vote was basically a tie & Illinois was quite close. If you watched his speech in Arizona to an enormous crowd you would know that Bernie is in this til the convention.

#### kennetha

(3,666 posts)How many big crowds did Bernie get in states where he's been crushed?

Fundamental error Sanders supporters make -- judging the power of the candidate by the size of his or her crowds.

I bet Bernie's average crowd dwarfs Hillary's but a LOT more people have voted for Hillary than for Bernie.

#### jfern

(5,204 posts)#### Stuckinthebush

(10,990 posts)We can inscribe a triangle on a sphere and get more than 180 degrees in the angles.

Bernie can get 66% of remaining delegates, flip half of Hillarys supers and win the whole enchilada. Yep. It could happen.

Hugs to you.

#### jfern

(5,204 posts)#### Stuckinthebush

(10,990 posts)Sure. Those two things can happen.

#### jfern

(5,204 posts)#### Stuckinthebush

(10,990 posts)I did the math over here:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=1508431

#### jfern

(5,204 posts)#### Stuckinthebush

(10,990 posts)I don't care if you are discouraged, encouraged or itchy. Please vote for Bernie. Go for it. it really doesn't matter to us. In fact, we encourage you to vote your conscience.

The math is clear. He needs to flip supers and get 58% of the remaining votes. Both are impossible. But, carry on!

#### peacebird

(14,195 posts)Your silly efforts to discourage us are just so much FAIL.

Hills will never be president.

#### Stuckinthebush

(10,990 posts)Keep repeating it. It may help you deal with the sad.

Peace. Bird.

#### peacebird

(14,195 posts)Sadly if you are not in the 1%, you simply will not matter.

I will fight for Bernie because he fights for us. The sad will be you Hilly folk, when you realize she has sold you down the river for her rich buds.

At least Bernie will TRY to help us.

#### Stuckinthebush

(10,990 posts)That's the way to deal with dissonance!

#### kennetha

(3,666 posts)Like he's going to win New York and New Jersey and California and Pennsylvania by 58% or more.

Care to make a bet on that proposition?

For one thing, Bernie is going to basically drop out of the news. It's going to be all Trump vs the Repugnant establishment and all Clinton vs Trump from here on out.

Notice how they treated Bernie in his hour of defeat last night? More of that is coming. Plus with no more debates, he will only reach those already open to his message, hardly likely to win any new converts.

People will wonder if he is even still running. He'll pay for lots of paid advertising and draw the true blue to his rallies, especially in college towns, but basically he's had his 15 minutes.

Sorry about that.

#### peacebird

(14,195 posts)Long ago.

Still he continued to rise in the polls. And he has continued to this day. He will keep rising, and Hills will keep dropping. Even with media blackout Bernie has risen.

He raised more money than Hills in Jan and Feb. Pretty sure Marxh will be the same as he had over 27,500 donations after the March 15 contests.

#### Half-Century Man

(5,279 posts)It is our duty as citizens, a duty which transcends simple party membership, to select the best possible choices for public office. The office of a servant of the greater good, the major domo of the country's cadre of servants.

It is our duty to hold those elected accountable for their actions.

It is our duty to remember actions from the past which have, as of yet, no accounting.

#### djean111

(14,255 posts)Attempting to dishearten.

I don't see them much, I started using my ignore function today; it is lovely!

#### AtomicKitten

(46,585 posts)#### pat_k

(10,378 posts)And this is what gets lost in all the "probabilities" talk. He has already accomplished amazing things. Regardless of numbers, there are good reasons for him to stay in through the convention:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511507143

#### AtomicKitten

(46,585 posts)I've read analyses stating March 15th would be the high water mark of delegates for Hillary. Bernie-favorable states have yet to vote. The points you make in your link are excellent.

#### liberal_at_heart

(12,081 posts)will be caucusing which means we will be coerced into changing our vote because of "the math." I guarantee you there will be nothing Hillary supporters can say to me at the caucus that would change my vote.

#### geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)#### bkkyosemite

(5,792 posts)supporters. You keep trying to stick it to us with the ha ha ha he can't win..As Bernie would say enough is enough.

#### Fumesucker

(45,851 posts)#### thereismore

(13,326 posts)not certainties, and they can't bear it!

#### noretreatnosurrender

(1,890 posts)the purpose of those childish threads. I don't even bother posting in those kind of threads. It's a waste of time but I have bookmarked a few of them to bring them back at a later time.

#### MohRokTah

(15,429 posts)It is an undeniable truth.

#### whatchamacallit

(15,558 posts)is it pointless to fight the odds?

#### MohRokTah

(15,429 posts)Biological factors and the truths of delegate math are about that dissimilar.

#### whatchamacallit

(15,558 posts)It may be highly probable based statistical trends, but it's not yet mathematical certainty.

#### MohRokTah

(15,429 posts)**Mathematical Truth:**If a denominator in an operation reduces over time while the numerator does not reduce at an identical rate, the result grows over time.

Sanders will need 59% of all pledged delegates in the remaining races in order to secure 50% + 1 of the pledged delegates.

If he does not secure 77 out of 131 delegates up for grabs on March 22, the hurdle goes above 60%. If he gets those 77 delegates, he still needs 59% of the remaining delegates.

Delegate math is harsh when you are behind.

By contrast, Hillary only needs 54 of those delegates to stay on track for 2026 pledged delegates, or 50% + 1. If she gets those 54 delegates, she only needs 41% of the remaining delegates to secure half of the pledged delegates. If she gets more, then the precentage requirement drops for her while increasing for Sanders.

This was the slow delegate math death march Hillary had to face in 2008. Even when she won, she lost because she was further behind in terms of the required percentage of the remaining delegates than before she won the contests.

Barack Obama's 2008 lead was NEVER as high as Hillary Clinton's 2016 lead is now.

#### whatchamacallit

(15,558 posts)In the meantime how about you give the truth a rest.

#### MohRokTah

(15,429 posts)In most primaries, to receive 59% of the delegates one needs almost 2/3 of the votes.

Outside of Vermont, the Senator has not been able to achieve that sort of blowout. He did well in some states but not that sort of true blowout level consistently. Meanwhile the Secretary has achieved those numbers time and time again, and not in small states but in states with a vast number of delegates.

You are placing your entire hope on Sanders achieving a blowout in every remaining race. This is not a realistic expectation.

#### whatchamacallit

(15,558 posts)He's not ready to throw in the towel any earlier than Hillary was in '08. Deal with it.

#### MohRokTah

(15,429 posts)He simply will not be able to overcome the delegate math hurdles he needs to jump. It simply cannot happen.

He is currently at the same place Hillary was mid-May of 2008 in terms of the delegate math.

#### whatchamacallit

(15,558 posts)#### MohRokTah

(15,429 posts)There were less than three weeks left then.

But oh well, Kasich has been mathematically eliminated because he needs more delegates than there are left but he's still in it too.

#### JonLeibowitz

(6,282 posts)#### MohRokTah

(15,429 posts)#### JonLeibowitz

(6,282 posts)#### MohRokTah

(15,429 posts)In fact, referring to it as absurd is being nice about it.

#### MaggieD

(7,393 posts)#### whatchamacallit

(15,558 posts)#### MaggieD

(7,393 posts)huh?

#### stonecutter357

(12,761 posts)#### whatchamacallit

(15,558 posts)that decision will bring.

#### upaloopa

(11,417 posts)The primary is over per the math. We need to pivot to the general as Hillary and Trump have done.

You can send Bernie money so he can stay in as long as the money holds out but he can't win enough delegates to be nominated that is the math.

#### liberal from boston

(856 posts)I am going now to act blue & donate. Why are you so persistent--you have no right to demand that Senator Sanders drop out. If you watched his speech in Arizona you know that Bernie was in great spirits & the energy, enthusiasm from in Bernie's words from the "Huge crowd" was infectious.

#### upaloopa

(11,417 posts)He is not going to be the nominee. He needs 65% of the delegates in the next primaries. Hillary needs 36%.

Every time Bernie does not get 65% that percentage goes up. He will not get 65% in PA NY or CA to name 3.

So the math is against him.

If you want to not pay attention to that it is not my issue.

We need to elect a Dem in November to the White House. Hillary will be the nominee.

The primary is over, for us it is time to pivot to the general.

Do what you want but we are moving on.

I will donate to Hillary also.

#### dana_b

(11,546 posts)did you see this math?? You should drop out. Seriously, bro, why you hatin' on Hillary??"

I really have no idea. We're not going anywhere!!

Kind of like - we are the Leos and they are the Johnnys.

#### Warren DeMontague

(80,708 posts)But because they just want the opportunity to shut up everyone in GDP who disagrees with them, and they think a "settled" primary will mean that admin here will get rid of all their "enemies".

Not everyone, but some of the folks who confuse internet message board drama with real life.

#### Myrina

(12,296 posts)Exactly.

#### Kalidurga

(14,177 posts)#### RufusTFirefly

(8,812 posts)#### whatchamacallit

(15,558 posts)#### GoneFishin

(5,217 posts)offender POC for Wall Street profits, poisoning the drinking water of children and pregnant women with fracking fluids, or over throwing democratically elected leaders in South America because they won't hand over their stuff to neo-liberal vulture capitalists for fractions of pennies on the dollar.

#### onehandle

(51,122 posts)#### DanTex

(20,709 posts)#### whatchamacallit

(15,558 posts)... unless that was a shitty little dig at the intelligence of Sanders supporters in general.

#### DrDan

(20,411 posts)other than goading, crowing and FUD?

#### whatchamacallit

(15,558 posts)but I'm pretty certain most of them have been in response to the math inevitability posts.

#### NowSam

(1,252 posts)Because they drum beat telling us to quite when there are still, what 29 contests left? Must be afraid to let us vote. California is Bern Country.

#### upaloopa

(11,417 posts)CA is most likely split between the candidates. Bernie needs 65% of the rest of the delegates in the next primaries. Hillary needs 36%.

Bernie will not get 65% in NY or PA to name two. So by June 7 he will need more than 65% of CA to win the nomination. That just will not happen,

That is the math you don't want talked about.

We are moving on to the general. The sooner we do the better our chance of keeping the White House.

#### NowSam

(1,252 posts)I am not moving on until the 29 contests are done or one drops out. If Bernie wins I'm happiest. If not buy he can deny her the clinch then we have a brokered convention and get another chance at an alternative.

#### Depaysement

(1,835 posts)Accept and bow to your corporate masters. Love Big Brother or else.

#### reddread

(6,896 posts)they might need a better plan.

#### Chichiri

(4,667 posts)First, to soften the blow to Bernie supporters.

Second, to improve morale among my fellow Hillary supporters.

Third, to make Bernie supporters think twice about throwing their money against Hillary, rather than against Trump or their local GOP candidates.

And fourth, math is fun!

#### whatchamacallit

(15,558 posts)Thanks for the info.

#### Chichiri

(4,667 posts). . . and as much as we all would like to reach through the internet and slap someone silly, there simply isn't a Kickstarter for it yet.

#### NCTraveler

(30,481 posts)Less negative about each other, more positive about our own. It's a transition to the general. A slow transition.

#### whatchamacallit

(15,558 posts)Hillary will never be one of *my* own. Good luck.

#### NCTraveler

(30,481 posts)I though I was pretty clear. I think you make my point in being stuck in negative thought.

You promote Sanders, I promote Clinton. More positive about our own.

#### MineralMan

(147,197 posts)MineralMan speak truth to powerless.

#### orpupilofnature57

(15,472 posts)and we buy it, take away the Super-Lobbyists, the South ,he's right there .

#### PoliticAverse

(26,366 posts)The math is important because it can show when someone will actually have enough delegates to win.

Just remember probabilities are just that. And some are more probable than others.

#### DemocracyDirect

(708 posts)At the halfway point the difference established in the first half can be made up in the second half.

It's only over when one of the candidates exceeds half the number of total pledged delegates available.

And even then it's only the nomination that is over.

Every delegate then gets votes at the convention on the party platform.

The progressive movement will push forward!

Don't give them an inch.

All the way to Philadelphia!

Be the change you want to see in the world!

Be the Bern!

#### Tarc

(10,551 posts)Discounting super-delegates for a moment and only looking at the pledged, if Sanders completely ran the table for the rest of the contests 60%-40%, he'd be up 2,030 to 1,940.

As soon as you start cutting into that with realistic numbers (HRC will take 80% of DC, 70% of KY, and I'll be generous and call NY and NJ a 50-50 split), then she's up 2000 to 1968.

I'm even gifting you 60-40's in AZ and CA, above.

Sorry, it's just not going to happen.

#### corbettkroehler

(1,898 posts)I'm 100% in for Bernie but want to be cautious about the general election. If HRC wins the nomination, I want to be a part of stopping Drumpf.

I want the analysis of the delegate math to be sure that a path to victory remains. If it is closed, I need to stop donating because it would constitute throwing good money after bad.

#### ruralsteve

(20 posts)BEAN COUNTING

when engagement on the issues has over-tired them, I suppose.

#### brooklynite

(96,882 posts)I think the point of being here is to discuss politics. That includes electoral prospects.

#### whatchamacallit

(15,558 posts)I agree it's similar.