The Delegate Math "Death March"

[MohRokTah]

There was a phenomenon during the 2008 Democratic Primaries that had been referred to as the Delegate Math "Death March". What happened was Barack Obama established a small lead. From there, he built on that lead.

What happened in the delegate math was, as Hillary Clinton was unable to make up the difference between her delegate count and Barack Obama's, the ability to make up that difference became increasingly more difficult as the pool of remaining delegates continued to shrink. Even when she won primaries, she ended up further behind because she didn't win enough delegates in those primary wins. As the primaries continued, she continued winning and continued falling further behind. In the end, after the final primary had been held and Barack Obama gave his victory speech, he rolled out 60 Super Delegates giving him the required number of delegates to secure the nomination. Hillary Clinton then suspended her campaign and endorsed Barack Obama.

Once all of the delegates from Tuesday night have been allocated, we will have less than half the total number of pledged delegates remaining. Hillary has established a commanding lead. Sanders is coming up on some wins, but he faces the same delegate math "death march" that Hillary faced in 2008, only worse. Hillary's delegate lead is much higher than Barack Obama's was and it is currently more difficult for Sanders to secure half the pledged delegates than it was for Hillary Clinton at this time in 2008.

In fact, in an odd twist of delegate math, Bernie Sander currently requires about 57% of all remaining pledged delegates to secure half of the pledged delegates (2026). By contrast, Hillary Clinton currently requires about 59% of all remaining pledged delegates to secure the nomination requirement (2382). That number is without any Super Delegates at all, which would top Barack Obama's 2008 achievement.

The numbers for both candidates are going to increase in the next couple of days, but for every three delegates Sanders increases his total by, Hillary is going to increase hers by five. The delegate math only gets worse and by the time it is all sorted out, Sanders will need about 59% of remaining pledged delegates to secure half of the pledged delegates while Hillary will need about 57% to secure the required 2382 for the nomination with no super delegates at all.

BASIC MATH: In a mathematical division series with a reducing denominator over time, if the numerator does not decrease at the same rate as the denominator, the result will increase over time.

EDITED TO ADD: I fully support Bernie Sanders remaining in the primary race until at least the point in time when a GOP nominee is set in stone.

[bobbobbins01]

1. March 15th was always touted as the high water mark for Hillary

So the next 2 weeks will be what proves or disproves the math. I have a feeling this is going all the way to Cali before its put to bed for good.

[MohRokTah]

2. Since Super delegates are a part of the delegate math, it will be put to bed much sooner.

After all, Super Delegates determined the outcome in 2008.

With Super Delegates, the math is even worse for Sanders. Hillary should secure the nomination in about a month or so, even with horrendous losses in every contest between now and then. She will have more than 2382 delegates before April is over.

[bobbobbins01]

3. Super delegates don't get counted until the convention.

But regardless, Hillary isn't going to hit 2382.

[MohRokTah]

4. Super Delegates get counted when they announce.

That's how Obama secured the nomination nearly two months before the convention in 2008. If not for Super Delegates, it would have been an open convention.

[Still In Wisconsin]

5. I agree. It's time for the Sanders supporters to sit down and shut up.

And, by the way, I was a Sanders guy. You won, we lost. Congrats on a hard-fought victory.

[MohRokTah]

6. I don't want Sanders supporters to sit down and shut up.

I want them out there showing every bit as much passion against Trump as they did against Hillary!

And I want Sanders to keep on going at least until the GOP nominee has secured his position.

[KittyWampus]

7. Jeez, not shut-up. That isn't right. But how about just focusing on

doing really practical things to get Democratic party more towards the Left.

Local politics.

All the young Sanders supporters could register as Democrats, take what they have learned about issues, and run in local elections.

[Still In Wisconsin]

21. I wish I could agree but

we Berners tried to take the party in a liberal direction but the voters answer was an emphatic "no." There are no participation trophies in politics. Bernie and his movement, of which I was a part, were simply anachronistic. Wrong time and wrong place. Now it's over and done.

[pat_k]

11. Disagree

http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511507143

[nadinbrzezinski]

8. Apart of the term death march and how it relates

to both the Bataan Death March and Aushwitz you might want to go argue with DWS about when super delegates are counted. Sorry, but she is the authority on this, not you, and they were not counted in 2008 either

[Garrett78]

9. I think the race is essentially over, but I expect Sanders to keep running until April 26th.

After NY, PA and MD, I suspect Clinton's lead will be so overwhelming that Sanders will determine it's best that he drop out.

Winning big in states such as MT, ID, WY, UT, SD, ND and AK isn't going to cut it. Relatively small wins in WA and OR also won't put much of a dent in Clinton's lead.

Generally speaking, Clinton does better in large states (with demographics that more closely resemble the Democratic electorate as a whole) and Sanders does better in small states that lack diversity. You don't have to be a math genius to understand why that's a problem for Sanders.

And Clinton just won the 2 states that matter most in the general election, Ohio and Florida.

Some people want so badly for something to happen that they convince themselves that it *will* happen, in spite of all evidence to the contrary. DU is littered with threads from people who are denying mathematical and demographic realities, as well as engaging in fallacious reasoning.

[MohRokTah]

12. Running the math and including super delegates in the math,...

Hillary should have at least 2382 delegates secured by May 17 at the absolute latest.

[Garrett78]

13. Superdelegates aside...

...I think there will come a point where Sanders accepts the inevitable, and I think that point will be reached next month.

[MohRokTah]

16. He may already be there.

He can do math.

I hope he stays in until the GOP nominee has been determined with absolute certainty, even if that doesn't happen until the GOP convention since their convention happens before ours.

[pat_k]

10. Couple corrections

140 have yet to be allocated from yesterday according to delegate tracker:

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/democrats/

2026 Pledged to win Pledged.

I'd wait for allocation of remaining 140 from yesterday before calculating anything.

But, in general, Bernie needing about 57% of remaining to win sounds about right. (far less than other numbers I've seen bandied around... like 72%.)

Long shot, but not outside the realm of possibility. As others have pointed out, the remaining calendar favors him. Add to that the fact that he has more enthusiastic ground operations and is still raising money at a fast pace (and therefore can likely outspend Hillary).

And, as for reasons to stay in to the Convention, regardless of cumulative numbers:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511507143

[MohRokTah]

14. 57% is for half the pledged delegates.

That number is likely to increase to 59% by the time the remaining 140 March 15 delegates have been allocated.

Right now Sanders needs 72% of all remaining delegates to secure the nomination. Super Delegates must be included in that math and 72% includes the remaining 219 Super Delegates who have not announced an endorsement.

By contrast, after the 140 remaining March 15 delegates have been allocated, Hillary will need 57% of the remaining pledged delegates to secure a total of 2382 pledged delegates and the nomination without a single Super Delegate.

We are at the precipice of it being mathematically more likely Hillary will secure the nomination without a single super delegate than it will be fore Sanders to secure half of just the pledged delegates.

By reminder, 50 delegates jumped ship from Hillary Clinton to Barack Obama in 2008, but they did so only AFTER Barack Obama had secured the nomination on June 3. Barack Obama secured that nomination by rolling out 60 super delegates with his win in the final primary.

[pat_k]

17. There's a reason unpledged are not included in FiveThirtyEight tracker

Most will go with whoever wins the most pledged -- or suffer significant blowback.

Sure, it's mathematically "more likely" Hillary will secure the nomination. I said as much. But "Hillary will more likely" does not = "Hillary will."

And, just about the only reason people are making the case that the nomination is "out of reach" for Sanders is to support the contention that Sanders should drop out before the convention.

I say he should not drop out, regardless of cumulative numbers. I state why in the post below. I imagine you think he should. Let's leave it at that.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511507143

[MohRokTah]

19. "Secure the nomination with ONLY PLEDGED DELEGATES"

You left off the most important part of that. Hillary's hurdle to reach 2382 with only pledged delegates is lower than Sanders' hurdle to reach only 2026 pledged delegates once the remaining March 15 pledged delegates have been allocated.

That's a devastating and undeniable truth.

[pat_k]

20. You've ignored the content of my post. I direct you back to it.

[leftofcool]

15. But the remaining states don't favor him

Hillary is ahead by 20-30 points in PA, NJ, NY, AZ and a few other small states. California is a toss up.

[pat_k]

18. We've seen how accurate the polls have been. We'll know soon enough.

The outcome will be what it is. Arguing "it's over" is just an attempt to create a self-fulfilling prophecy. It's a strategy that may be successful, but for myself, I'd rather see things play out.

And, regardless of numbers, he should stay in until the convention. Here's why:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511507143