10 Reasons Bernie Sanders Can Still Win the Democratic Nomination (VIDEO)

[Uncle Joe]

It’s undeniable that Bernie Sanders did not have a good night. He lost all five of the Super Tuesday States, including Ohio, which he lost by a lot. Some blame the Ohio loss on John Kasich, since Bernie gains most traction with independents. Hillary Clinton has a 300-delegate lead on Sanders, which makes it extraordinarily difficult for Sanders to catch up. But not impossible. Here’s the good news for Bernie supporters.

1. Money, money, money.
2. Big state wins possible.
3. Pro-Clinton South voted first.
4. Check the count on April 19.
5. California, here we come.
6. New York state of mind.
7. Don't forget the superdelegates.
8. Those Clinton emails.
9. Raising Arizona.
10. Bread basket of America.

So fear not, Bernie supporters. It won't come easy, but there still could be a path to winning the Democratic nomination.

Watch the Young Turks discuss Bernie Sanders' chances:

http://www.alternet.org/election-2016/10-reasons-bernie-sanders-can-still-win-democratic-nomination

More detailed information is on the link.

[cosmicone]

1. One reason he has no prayer in hell

Arithmetic

[Uncle Joe]

2. Politics is much more than arithmetic, too many unknown variables can happen over the coming

weeks and months.

[onenote]

13. That's true for any candidate in any contest

But absent some external event that changes the current dynamic, it's hard to see how the math changes.

[Uncle Joe]

14. The math has been heavily skewed to the conservative side as the vast majority of the states

which have voted are in the South.

That's of course leaving aside any future external events altering the dynamics.

[alcibiades_mystery]

3. Sanders has proven utterly incapable of winning major urban areas

North or south, east or west: he hits a major urban area and he loses by 10 percentage points, minimum. He's not going to win a Democratic primary in Maryland, Pennsylvania, New York, or California if he's losing the cities that badly. He'll barely pull a split delegate victory in Wisconsin (maybe +2% or so). Granted, he'll win Washington and Oregon given their urban demographics, and he'll pull some Western mountain states.

But this "path forward" business was put forward before the devastating weakness of the Sanders campaign became clear: he can't win a major city in a primary. He's lost every single one, and some by a lot.

[Uncle Joe]

4. Bernie won the second largest city; Grand Rapids in Michigan.

http://graphics.latimes.com/election-2016-michigan-results/

Bernie won every district in Minnesota

http://wtop.com/presidential-election/2016/03/2016-minnesota-presidential-caucus-results/

Bernie won every county in Colorado including Denver

http://data.denverpost.com/election/results/county/denver/2016/

Hillary's primary advantage to date is that the vast majority of contests have been held in the conservative South.

No state on the left coast has even voted yet with only Colorado which Bernie won handily and Nevada which was a close race having taken place in the west.

Furthermore as I mentioned on post#2 there are too many variables over the coming weeks and months for anyone to state categorically how future results in urban, suburban or rural areas will take place.

The dynamics are continually shifting and Hillary has her own major weaknesses.

[senz]

7. +1000

Thank you, favorite Uncle!

[Uncle Joe]

9. ...

[alcibiades_mystery]

11. Grand Rapids?

Good luck in Philly and Baltimore and New York and Los Angeles.

[Uncle Joe]

12. Grand Rapids with a population over a million is the second largest city in Michigan.

The Grand Rapids-Wyoming Metropolitan Statistical Area, as defined by the United States Census Bureau, is an area consisting of four counties in western Michigan, anchored by the cities of Grand Rapids and Wyoming. The MSA has a population of 1,027,703. It comprises four counties which include Barry, Kent, Montcalm, and Ottawa.[1]

The Grand Rapids – Muskegon – Holland Combined Statistical Area is the 2nd largest CSA in the U.S. state of Michigan (behind Metro Detroit). As of the 2010 census, the CSA had a population of 1,321,557. (1,421,374 2014 est.) The primary cultural and financial centers of the region are Grand Rapids, Muskegon and Holland. It includes the four counties in the Grand Rapids-Wyoming Metropolitan Statisical Area plus one metropolitan area, adding Muskegon-Norton Shores in Muskegon County, and three micropolitan areas of Holland in Allegan County, Ionia in Ionia County and Big Rapids in Mecosta County for a total of eight counties. The Grand Rapids metropolitan area is part of the Great Lakes Megalopolis containing an estimated 54 million people.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Rapids_metropolitan_area

[alcibiades_mystery]

15. Fair enough

I'll put Boston, Chicago, Detroit, Cleveland, Cincinnati, St. Louis, and Kansas City up against Grand Rapids any day of the week. They all produced total vote that dwarfed the 68,000+ vote TOTAL out of Grand Rapids (Kent County). Plus, they have major league baseball teams . If we want to talk about what's more of an indicator for voting patterns in Philadelphia, Baltimore, New York, Los Angeles, I'll spot you your Grand Rapids.

Grand Rapids is the second-largest city in the U.S. state of Michigan, and the largest city in West Michigan. It is located on the Grand River about 30 miles east of Lake Michigan. As of the 2010 census, the city population was 188,040.

[Uncle Joe]

16. Denver the largest city in Colorado voted for Bernie and they won the Super Bowl.

[alcibiades_mystery]

20. OK

As I noted in my post, I was referring to primary states only. Just to prove I'm not goalpost moving on that, I link here to an earlier post where I mention Denver and Minneapolis for the same argument. We should, of course, then bring in Las Vegas as well.

I also, however, left out all the other cities Clinton completely thrashed Sanders in, mostly because they were in the South and you didn't want to talk about the beatings Sanders took down South. I like the Super Bowl thing, though. So, let's catalog just the cities with top flight professional teams (NFL, MLB, NBA, NHL) won by Clinton and Sanders. My list looks like this:

Clinton: Boston, Chicago, Detroit, St. Louis, Kansas City, Cleveland, Cincinnati, Atlanta, Miami, Tampa, Houston, Dallas, San Antonio, Nashville, Columbus (!), Memphis, New Orleans, Charlotte (all primary).

Sanders: Denver (caucus), Minneapolis (caucus), Oklahoma City (primary: 66,000).

Am I missing any?

Pennsylvania is a primary; Maryland is a primary; New Jersey is a primary; New York is a primary.

[onenote]

17. Demographically, comparing Grand Rapids to Baltimore or Philadelphia is comparing apples and oranges

Grand Rapids is a city of under 200,000 people, located in a county of 600,000 and an MSA of 1 million. The city's population is over 60 percent white and the percentage of white inhabitants grows when you look at the county and MSA statistics, approaching 80 percent.

Philadelphia is a county whose population is the same as Philadelphia city: 1.5 million. It is majority non-white. And even if you expand it to cover the 2.7 million people in the Philadelphia et al PSA, the percentage of non-white residents is substantially higher than it is in Grand Rapids.

And Baltimore has an even higher percentage of non-white residents than Philadelphia.

[KingFlorez]

5. Sanders is down to asking superdelegates to hand him the nomination

At this point his campaign is lobbying superdelegates to hand him the nomination contrary to the pledged delegate count. That is desperate and a clear sign that he is finished. Bye Bye Bernie.

[Uncle Joe]

8. No Bernie is only asking super delegates to support him in states he wins that would most likely

vote for the Democratic Candidate in a general election.

If Bernie doesn't win those states and from my take have more pledged delegates than Hillary with neither going over the top by the convention nothing would be expected from them.

http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2016/02/bernie-sanders-hopes-sway-superdelegates.html

http://crooksandliars.com/2016/03/bernie-sanders-looks-flip-superdelegates

“Absent Hillary getting out of the race, I think there’s no way that this race isn’t going to be very close in pledged delegates, even if we succeed,” Devine said. “The best outcome for us, given the nature of the system, is a very close advantage at the end."

(snip)

About that. First, more power to the Sanders campaign if they can woo some superdelegates away. And second, aren't they glad they've got that as a potential strategic aim, because otherwise the narrative would be a simple one in the press after Clinton opened a 300+ pledged delegate lead on him, right? They'd call the race. But superdelegates, combined with the remaining races, offer a strategy that the campaign is willing to follow, hoping for a narrow delegate lead at the end.

[senz]

6. I will not give up on something this good.

Bernie is once in a lifetime. Hillary, imo, is the essence of dishonesty and corruption -- both personally and ideologically. Her loyalties are firmly with a very corrupt establishment that is the direct result of the Reagan revolution. She is antithetical to everything the Democratic Party once represented.

Those of us who are older may never have another chance to turn this country around peacefully. This is our chance. Fight on. Fight hard for the peaceful, orderly revolution that Bernie represents.

Do not give up.

[polly7]

22. +1,000,000 senz! nt.

[senz]

10. K & R!

[AzDar]

18. Not about to let Debbie WantsToRigIt-Shultz and mostly Southern States pick the Nominee...

Go, Bernie... GO!!

[seabeyond]

19. Just.... not even.

[Octafish]

21. Thank you, Uncle Joe!

There's a lot of good fighting yet to come.