Their right, math is math

[angrychair]

While last night showed that she may win the Democratic Party's nomination, it proved beyond little doubt, that she is very unlikely to win the General Election.
Why? Math.

As I stated in a couple of different post, including here, if you cannot win Independents, especially in all-important swing states, you lose General Elections.
As an aside, if you combine that with little to no youth vote, 18-44 years old, than you have no path forward.
Not only did Clinton do nothing to move her General Election prospects forward last night, it appears to added more wood to the fire that she cannot win in all-important swing states like Ohio.

Bernie Sanders carried Independents in Ohio 65/33, a greater than 2-1 margin

Hillary Clinton lost the youth vote (18-44) in Ohio 66/34, just shy of a 2-1 margin loss.

As an aside, IL was worse:
Clinton lost Independents 70-30, greater than 2-1 margin.
Clinton lost the youth vote (17-44) by a greater than 2-1 margin, 70/30.


Even though FL is a closed primary, CNN still ask the same questions, even in a state with a closed primary, Clinton lost self-identified Independents 55/42 and lost the youth vote, 51/49.

Combined with lower voter turnout for Democrats compared to republicans, in almost every state that has voted so far, this is not a very positive General Election picture.

At the end of the day, this process is not about picking someone that can win the Democratic Party nomination, it's about picking someone that can win the general election.

[thereismore]

1. They're right.

[Capt. Obvious]

2. My right

[jcgoldie]

9. English is English

[SidDithers]

24. There you go again, being right...nt

Sid

[DrDan]

41. I have a hard time plodding through a post that starts like that

[asuhornets]

3. Hillary cleaned house..

last night especially in Ohio-she won big there. And a come from behind win in Missouri.. She is doing very well and plenty of people are voting for her. So what are you talking about. Bernie lost all five states so how is he the better candidate for the General Election?

[pinebox]

7. Bernie does better in a General Election than Hillary

We've said this all along.
Against a Republican opponent, Bernie cleans house and Hillary loses to every single one, some polls show her beating Trump, some polls don't. Trump is a toss up against Hillary.

I'll try to explain why.

Hillary is popular among Democrats only. When it comes to Indy voters who are bigger than both Republican & Democrat voters, Bernie carries them by a wide margin against Hillary. In a General Election, Trump carries the indy voter. This is where it gets bas for Dems.

You need to look outside the Democrat bubble to really see the whole picture. I'm going to be really honest with you here. I'm no Dem, I'm an indy myself. In a GE, should Hillary be the nominee, you're looking at Dems putting up a candidate who most people see as corrupt and who most people do not trust against a Republican who is a celebrity and is running a conservative populist campaign. You have to remember and I am being honest here that Hillary is hated and I mean HATED by the right, many of us on the left can't stand her either. A nomination for Hillary would make millions either pencil Bernie in, vote Green party or just stay home and then you have the millions who would show up on the right to vote just to make sure Hillary isn't elected.

You can bookmark me now but I'm calling it, should this scenario play out, Dems are looking a landslide scenario where Republicans retake the White House.

It is what it is.

[JTFrog]

10. Well you've been so right about everything else so far.

[asuhornets]

15. Your words:

"You need to look outside the Democrat bubble to really see the whole picture. I'm going to be really honest with you here. I'm no Dem, I'm an indy myself. "

U need to look within the Democratic party because we Dems are saying we want Hillary as the nominee. Most Bernie supporters here are Independents and now that Bernie is losing---you have no horse in this race, and waiting on Hillary to lose the GE---but it won't happen she will win the GE.. And you are going to like it.

[pinebox]

25. No we're not going to like it and either will you

when Hillary is indicted but whatever.

You ignore the facts and they are right there, quite the revisionism. For the sake of reality. Hillary has NO crossover support. There is no path to the white house for her because she does NOT get the indy vote. Dem support is fine but you can't win the white house on that alone, can you? Nope. That is the reality.

You focus on the little bubble, we focus on the whole picture. As I said, Dems will loose the GE should Hillary be the nominee and your only real hope in that scenario is the GOP throws Trump under the bus and have a brokered/contested convention & Trump goes 3rd party.

Millions won't vote between the liar or the stupid.

[asuhornets]

30. the only thing ...

you can do for Bernie right now is to continue to send him money. If he keeps losing that's going to dry up. He outspent her in most of those states she won last night. Talk about alternate reality.

[pinebox]

33. Welcome to half time!

Guess whose path forward it is now.
Bernie.
The remaining states favor him.
Now what?

Alternate reality is when you refuse to accept things like your candidate supported TPP, KXL, Honduras, NAFTA, DOMA, DADT and a host of other bad positions yet letting her accountability slide because "OMG IT'S HILLARY!"
You'd think she was flippin' Pope or something or the Beatles in 1962.

Nope, sorry, I like reality. I like it a lot. American's died in Libya and the Reagan's didn't help AIDS research. Thinking otherwise is alternate reality. Gee, who has that problem? Not Bernie.

Cheers!

[zappaman]

36. ok. n/t

[asuhornets]

37. Sure he will win a few more states, but it won't be enough...n/tt

[pinebox]

40. Oh? Stay tuned it's over when Cali feels the Bern

[DrDan]

43. there is not going to be an indictment . . . geez louise

[pinebox]

45. Jeez is right, 100-150 agents working on the case

And this just out this morning http://www.politico.com/story/2016/03/hillary-clinton-emails-state-department-220689
Have fun!

[DrDan]

47. ". . . refuses GOP questions . . ." - you did catch the "GOP" part, right?

enjoy that company you are keeping . . .

[magical thyme]

26. Hillary didn't "clean house"

As I posted nearly 2 weeks ago, yesterday was "Super Tuesday Part 2" and the second half of the southern firewall.

The media tried to mis-set expectations to make it look like Hillary is already inevitable. Not. True

In reality, Bernie (not so) simply needed to get past the firewall with enough delegates to remain viable. Last night he outperformed realistic expectations in a few states, slightly underperformed in others. Overall, though, he made more than enough delegates (and limited Hillary's gains) to remain viable.

Hillary's strongest states are now behind her. Bernie's strongest are ahead. His path always showed today as his lowest point, and Hillary's highest. Going forward he starts cutting into her lead; most of his paths converge on June 7 when he breaks even.

He's in it to the convention.

[asuhornets]

28. how's that....

"Last night he outperformed realistic expectations" he lost all five states, Illinois by 40,000 votes. She crushed him in Ohio.

[magical thyme]

44. it's not about winning states. It's about winning delegates. He needed to win enough to stay viable.

He did, and he limited her gains. Super Tuesday's part 1 and 2 were about winning enough delegates to survive to the blue states; simultaneously limiting Hillary's gains. He succeeded. He remains viable and the map now turns to his favor.

Sorry if that is too complicated for you to understand.

[asuhornets]

48. come on now..

u know the opposite happened Tuesday nite.. She gained delegates thereby putting him behind in delegates. He needed 54% before Super Tuesday now he needs 58%...

[magical thyme]

49. he limited her gains and limited his losses. That's all he needed to do.

His bigger than expected loss in Ohio was offset by his smaller than expected loss in NC. He remains a viable candidate. He's already won 58-64% in multiple states in the north and northwest. He's very strong in the upcoming states.

And he has alternate strategies to pursue.

Nothing more to say. Carry on alone...

[DemocracyDirect]

4. They are not right about the math in the primary.

In a two person race, the person with the most pledged delegates at the end is the winner.

There is no complex math calculation involved.

Super delegates are not going to override the pledged delegates.

All the way to the convention!

Be the change that you want to see in the world!

Be the Bern!

[surrealAmerican]

5. Welcome to DU, but ...

... I think you misunderstood what this post is about.

[DemocracyDirect]

6. I did understand...

But the premise of the title seems to imply that we should give up on the primary contest...

and now look at the lot of the general election.

Not so fast!

[brush]

8. Just a thought: Sanders until 8 months ago was an independent. Of course he would . . .

win more independents than Clinton.

If he does lose the nomination, he will campaign for Clinton and pull many of those independents, and younger voter, who voted for him over to vote Democratic.

And what makes you thing that independents who voted for Bernie would make a 180 degree turn to vote for the neo-facist Trump?

Does that make sense to you?

[Tommy_Carcetti]

11. Their right, my left?

[randome]

14. There, there.

[hr][font color="blue"][center]Don't ever underestimate the long-term effects of a good night's sleep.[/center][/font][hr]

[reflection]

12. Early polling means little.

I'm a strong Bernie advocate, the thought of President Clinton makes me somewhat ill. That being said, I'll crawl over broken glass to vote for her if/when she becomes the nominee (and it will be about that pleasant, I truly dislike her penchant for taking every side of every position).

BUT - and I know I'm just a regular schmo with no political background, I think Hillary is going to wipe the floor with Trump. She will eviscerate him in the debates, which EVERYONE will be watching, especially independents. They'll see a competent person they may or may not like juxtaposed against an empty suit with no experience and no concrete plans. The questions will be tougher and he'll be playing to the whole audience this time, not just red-meat right-wing weirdos. And if Trump goes after Hillary in the personal way he went after his fellow republicans, he will be lucky to garner a single female vote outside of the southern Republican evangelical Stepford Wife demographic. Either way, AAs and Latinos will clog up the polls against him.

What scares me is if Kasich manages to wrestle the nomination from Trump in a contested convention. The red-meat "I hate Hillary" republicans will suck up their pride and vote against her, the independents may well be swayed by the thin veneer of respectability that surrounds his odiousness, and the young Bernie supporters will just check out (which hell, a lot appear to be doing anyway or this would be an entirely different narrative). Kasich can also claim Ohio, an important state, and he'll be able to sell the fact that the Congress will work with him better than Hillary.

tl;dr version: Trump vs. Hillary: Hillary destroys Trump. Hillary vs. Kasich: I get scared.

One man's opinion, worth what you paid for it, nothing.

[artislife]

38. I won't crawl over broken glass for her. nt

[reflection]

42. Believe me, I understand.

Like I said, I shudder at the thought of her as President. But I go into a full-blown fetal position on the ground at the thought of a Republican instead. Everyone's gotta do what they've gotta do.

[Garrett78]

13. Romney won among independents by double digits...

...in the crucial state of Ohio.

[rbrnmw]

17. remind me who ended up winning Ohio

[Garrett78]

19. That was my point.

[rbrnmw]

22. Right I know

[Skwmom]

34. Romney didn't get crossover Democrats.

[MSMITH33156]

16. I'm thoroughly confused about the logical fallacy being displayed here that

1) That primary turnout translates to the general election. But even if that were true, that would apply equally to both candidates.

2) That somehow Hillary's primary demographic losses persist to a general election, but Sanders' do not. If Hillary "can't win" without the youth vote, how exactly does Sanders win with this in Ohio?

Race. Black voters in Ohio backed Clinton over Sanders by more than 2-1, 68-30 percent – but that was well down from her 5-1 advantage among blacks in previous contests to date. What put Ohio away for Clinton was the fact that she also, narrowly, won whites, 51-48 percent. In the Michigan upset last week, for comparison, Sanders won whites by 56-42 percent.

Age. Two-thirds of voters 45 and older backed Clinton. Sanders, typically, had an even wider lead among younger voters. His challenge was that they made up less of the electorate; 62 percent were 45 and older.

Gender. Clinton won women by 61-38 percent, roughly typical for the year. And they accounted for 57 percent of voters.

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/live-mini-super-tuesday-democratic-exit-poll-analysis/story?id=37666687

Of course, none of this actually matters because it's a Democratic primary, and not a general election. But if you're going to argue that Hillary will struggle with the same demographic groups in the general election as she has in the primary, then for consistency, the same would apply to Sanders, and he would be completely unelectable.

But fret not, because both of our candidates are fine in the general election:

There actually is no historic correlation between primary turnout and general election turnout. None. The highest turnout in a Democratic primary—before the outlier of 2008—was in 1988. Gov. Michael Dukakis got killed in November. Democratic primary turnout was actually lower in 1992—two million fewer Democrats voted in the primaries that year. The drop in turnout didn’t stop Bill Clinton from winning the general election convincingly.

Democrats on the other hand would strongly back the nominee: 78 percent would be satisfied with Secretary Hillary Clinton and 63 percent would back Sen. Bernie Sanders no matter their first choice.

http://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/presidential-campaign/272381-the-truth-about-primary-voter-turnout

[jcgoldie]

20. Nice

Good points

[brooklynite]

18. And therefore, why are you spreading this information here?

An anonymous blog has no impact at all; you should be out trying to sell this missive to the actual voters, who seem to prefer Hillary over Bernie.

[pdsimdars]

21. Amen, just like the climate deniers, they refuse to look at the data and face the facts.

[trumad]

23. Yawn

[RealAmericanDem]

29. OP's math assumes Bernie is in the race.

Just because Bernie get's more young people and independents means NOTHING once he is not in the race. When Clinton and Trump are the ONLY choices what makes you think these groups would pick Trump over Clinton especially with Bernie out campaigning for Hillary.

[Lizzie Poppet]

35. It's not that they'll vote for Trump...

...it's that they'll stay home. Without young voters and left-to-moderate independents, you're missing a huge chunk of the Obama coalition...and AA voters won't make up for that.

[SidDithers]

27. If there's one thing that the failed Sanders bid has shown us...

it's that counting on the youth vote to fuel your campaign is sheer folly.

Sid

[Vinca]

31. I don't think Hillary is a terribly strong candidate, but it's likely the GOP is going to fracture

into at least 2 pieces which will diminish the Trump vote significantly. I love Bernie and think he would be a much more exciting candidate for us, but it is what it is.

[HassleCat]

32. We are irreversibly committed to this strategy.

This is where we have been going for 30 years, and we can't quit now. Voter turnout is pathetic. Candidates are uninspiring. We are the minority party. Fortunately, the other party has nothing but a crazy guy. But crazy might do it this time. We are in trouble. If the Trump rebellion succeeds, he will bring congressional seats to the GOP.

[alcibiades_mystery]

39. For months Sanders people have argued that Clinton can't win the general: the argument is weak

It's simply not working.

You can argue it over and over again. People seem to find it unpersuasive.

Probably because primaries and generals are apples and oranges, but whatever. It's not really necessary to explain why this argument is so ineffective. It simply is. It doesn't work. Hillary keeps winning.

[Betty Karlson]

46. Math only counts when it can be spun in Clinton's favor. eom