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Wed Mar 16, 2016, 10:28 AM

Won Delegates Clinton 1112, Sanders 806

Delegates won.

Clinton--1112

Sanders--806

It's a much closer race than the media is reporting (1599-844), since the actual delegates won matters more than the totals with Super-Delegates. The purpose of tacking the "Supers" on there is to depress Sanders folks, to make people think it's all over, it's already a runaway.

There are thirty more States coming, and many are in areas of the country Sanders won by margins like 60-40. And in the end, if Sanders catches Hillary, and moves ahead to restore a more liberal Democrat to the party, perhaps saving it, and maybe pulling Republicans back from the brink?--well the normal practice for Super Delegates is to reverse their support, and put it in the leaders camp.

Not doing that, spells disaster for the Democrats in the general election.

There is still time. Hillary does worse in polls against Trump than Sanders. Heed. Thirty more Sanders supporters--truth is, last night wasn't too bad--did better in NC, tied in two big norther States, and a lot of independents that usually fall for Sanders, switched and put Kasich ahead in Ohio.

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Arrow 30 replies Author Time Post
Reply Won Delegates Clinton 1112, Sanders 806 (Original post)
liberalmike27 Mar 2016 OP
Renew Deal Mar 2016 #1
DrDan Mar 2016 #7
Stallion Mar 2016 #19
Garrett78 Mar 2016 #20
DrDan Mar 2016 #25
Thinkingabout Mar 2016 #2
JaneyVee Mar 2016 #3
Lizzie Poppet Mar 2016 #10
Gregorian Mar 2016 #4
Jenny_92808 Mar 2016 #23
liberalmike27 Mar 2016 #5
Uncle Joe Mar 2016 #9
Renew Deal Mar 2016 #11
Capt. Obvious Mar 2016 #12
Garrett78 Mar 2016 #14
Uncle Joe Mar 2016 #15
Garrett78 Mar 2016 #17
Dr Hobbitstein Mar 2016 #13
NCTraveler Mar 2016 #18
NCTraveler Mar 2016 #16
Le Taz Hot Mar 2016 #24
liberalmike27 Mar 2016 #6
Uncle Joe Mar 2016 #8
Faux pas Mar 2016 #21
pa28 Mar 2016 #22
Historic NY Mar 2016 #26
Mudcat Mar 2016 #27
Gregorian Mar 2016 #28
LonePirate Mar 2016 #29
Peace Patriot Mar 2016 #30

Response to liberalmike27 (Original post)

Wed Mar 16, 2016, 10:32 AM

1. That's nice. Which states do you predict Sanders will lose and what margins will Sanders need

to make up for it?

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Response to Renew Deal (Reply #1)

Wed Mar 16, 2016, 11:13 AM

7. just checked a few polls - winning big in ND, SD, Wyoming, Idaho, Montana

close races in NY, California, Pa

hmmmmm . . .

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Response to DrDan (Reply #7)

Wed Mar 16, 2016, 11:27 AM

19. There are Democrats in ND, SD, Wyoming, Idaho and Montana?

probably the population of those 5 states equals the population of the DFW Metroplex

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Response to Stallion (Reply #19)

Wed Mar 16, 2016, 11:30 AM

20. Talk about red states. The reddest of the red.

When you do best in small states and your opponent does best in large states, your deficit can only grow. Math.

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Response to Stallion (Reply #19)

Wed Mar 16, 2016, 12:20 PM

25. exactly - big wins there will do nothing to offset one loss (or tie) in NY, CA, or PA

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Response to liberalmike27 (Original post)

Wed Mar 16, 2016, 10:34 AM

2. Oh, really.

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Response to liberalmike27 (Original post)

Wed Mar 16, 2016, 10:36 AM

3. 324 delegates is virtually impossible to make up.

 

Dems allocate delegates proportionally.

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Response to JaneyVee (Reply #3)

Wed Mar 16, 2016, 11:18 AM

10. I don't disagree.

 

Not actually impossible...but very, very close to it.

*shrug* It's not like I feel I have any choice but to stick with Bernie until the actual nomination is made. He's the only candidate, with the possible exception of Jill Stein, that is anywhere near my views.

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Response to liberalmike27 (Original post)

Wed Mar 16, 2016, 10:50 AM

4. Looking over the numbers, I'm again confident in Bernie's chances to win this.

The process is tilted against progressives, but I think Bernie is still going to win. Where does clinton make up ground? She got her Texas and Florida. Now it's a matter of Bernie's margins from here on out.

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Response to Gregorian (Reply #4)

Wed Mar 16, 2016, 11:38 AM

23. I too am confident

 

that Bernie will win. I feel the momentum in growing in the progressive states!

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Response to liberalmike27 (Original post)

Wed Mar 16, 2016, 11:09 AM

5. Thirty States left,

California is more liberal, winner take all, over 400 delegates alone. Not much talk about New York, and Sanders is from the Bronx.

Plus he has been winning states 60-40 outside of the deep South.

Folks, Hillary is winning big in States that will not matter in the general election. No matter whether black voters are choosing her there, their votes will be lost in the pool of my liberal vote, in the general election, that 37% that hangs onto voting Democrat, in a sea of red.

Analyze the States outside of the South--look how the farther North you get, the higher Sanders percentage is--in NC last night he got 41%. In Alabama, what, about 17%.

Thirty States left--lots of fight.

The whole point in them reporting the delegate totals with SD's is to weaken your resolve. The media is in it for Hillary, as she is the establishment, corporate, Wall Street, Third Way, (ugh) New Democrat, Triangulating candidate. I reject her.

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Response to liberalmike27 (Reply #5)

Wed Mar 16, 2016, 11:15 AM

9. Is California winner take all? n/t

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Response to Uncle Joe (Reply #9)

Wed Mar 16, 2016, 11:18 AM

11. Not for Democrats

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Response to Uncle Joe (Reply #9)

Wed Mar 16, 2016, 11:20 AM

12. No

Mark Penn thought so

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Response to Uncle Joe (Reply #9)

Wed Mar 16, 2016, 11:21 AM

14. No. As has been pointed out dozens of times...

...the Democrats don't have winner-take-all primaries/caucuses.

Secondly, there are 24 states left. Plus DC, Puerto Rico and The Virgin Islands.

Thirdly, Clinton won the 2 states that matter most in the general election--OH and FL.

When people are so misinformed, it's no wonder people don't grasp the mathematical and demographic realities that point to it being virtually impossible for Clinton to lose at this point.

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Response to Garrett78 (Reply #14)

Wed Mar 16, 2016, 11:22 AM

15. I didn't think so, it was question to a post by the OP. n/t

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Response to Uncle Joe (Reply #15)

Wed Mar 16, 2016, 11:24 AM

17. I know. And the OP is wrong on many counts.

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Response to liberalmike27 (Reply #5)

Wed Mar 16, 2016, 11:20 AM

13. I didn't think any Democratic primaries are winner-take-all.

Are you sure about California? From what I've read, it's only winner-take-all for Republicans, proportional for Democrats.

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Response to liberalmike27 (Reply #5)

Wed Mar 16, 2016, 11:23 AM

16. With what you just said...

 

This has to completely change your thoughts.

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/CA-D

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Response to liberalmike27 (Reply #5)

Wed Mar 16, 2016, 11:44 AM

24. No . . . Califoria is NOT winner-takes-all.

Oy!

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Response to liberalmike27 (Original post)

Wed Mar 16, 2016, 11:13 AM

8. Kicked and recommended.

Thanks for the thread, liberalmike.

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Response to liberalmike27 (Original post)

Wed Mar 16, 2016, 11:31 AM

21. K N R-ed

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Response to liberalmike27 (Original post)

Wed Mar 16, 2016, 11:31 AM

22. Yes, he's collecting lots of delegates and four months is an eternity in politics.

Bernie is in this to the convention.

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Response to liberalmike27 (Original post)

Wed Mar 16, 2016, 12:28 PM

26. BS would have to win 70% of the remaining states completely.....

do the math even if its a split Hillary will still be ahead.

Clinton needs 784
Sanders needs 1539

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Response to Historic NY (Reply #26)


Response to Historic NY (Reply #26)

Wed Mar 16, 2016, 01:55 PM

28. That's incorrect. They're only split by approx. 300 delegates.

You're counting pledged delegates. Doesn't work that way.

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Response to liberalmike27 (Original post)

Wed Mar 16, 2016, 02:01 PM

29. Actually, only 24 states, DC and three territories have not voted.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries,_2016


Here are the pledged delegate counts for the remaining primaries and caucuses:

AZ: 75
ID: 23
UT: 33
AK: 16
HI: 25
WA: 101
WI: 86
WY: 14
NY: 247
CT: 55
DE: 21
MD: 95
PA: 189
RI: 24
IN: 83
Guam: 7
WV: 29
KY: 55
OR: 61
Virgin Islands: 7
Puerto Rico: 60
CA: 475
MT: 21
NJ: 126
NM: 34
ND: 18
SD: 20
DC: 20

Total pledged remaining: 2005

HRC leads Bernie by a little over 300 pledged delegates. Bernie must win roughly 1165 to HRC's 840 in order to win a majority of pledged delegates. That amounts to just over 58% of the remaining pledged delegates (or a 58/42 split from all of the remaining contests).

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Response to liberalmike27 (Original post)

Wed Mar 16, 2016, 02:25 PM

30. "truth is, last night wasn't too bad" --I totally agree.

But--viewing this as a 'horse race' (which is a narrow way to look at it)--we need to factor in the ENORMOUS HANDICAPS that have been imposed on the Bernie Sanders campaign from the beginning, from the outside. These include:

--the current Clinton/Corporate narrative that "it's over"
--the past Clinton/Corporate narratives that it was "over" at each marker on the racecourse
--the beginning Clinton/Corporate narrative that our 'Seabiscuit' never had a chance
--the cumulative impact of all of these narratives: NO COVERAGE
--the heavily imposed Corporate narrative that it's a 'horse race' and NOT ABOUT IDEAS
--the brainwashing and heavy dumbing down of the American electorate
--the shocking 99% coverage handed to Trump vs a campaign of IDEAS (Sanders)--TWO insurgent campaigns, one gets 24/7 coverage, the other gets, oh, 0.01% grudging notice after huge wins

--the Democratic National Committee's incredibly unfair bias toward Clinton
--the existing system of pay-to-play that puts almost all Dem elected officials in debt to Clinton/DNC
--all Dem elected officials (& most candidates) dependent on corporate/billionaire $ (unlike Sanders who rejects it)
--almost all Dem party officials & leaders part of the pay-to-play system
--labor unions decimated by Reagan junta; almost all labor union upper-mucks now 'players'
--erosion (almost disappearance) of Dem party principles: pro-workers, pro-poor, etc.
--in general, the simply gargantuan power of Wall Street, banksters, transglobal corps, MIC privateers, consolidated Corp media, et al, and foreign influences (the Saudis, other $$ investors)

--the frontload of rightwing states in the primaries (handed Clinton a winning 'narrative'--in truth a hollow one--going into the swing states; Sanders early wins and ties--a remarkable showing--swamped when Dixiecrats hit the Corporate airwaves).

And one self-imposed handicap: no superpacs, no Corp or billionaire money (This handicap is the core of the Sanders campaign, but it is nevertheless a handicap for operating in this atmosphere--for one thing, it doubles-down the determination of all of the above to kill Sanders' ideas and stop his campaign).

Personally, I would add this handicap: The privatized vote counting system (since 2004), with 'TRADE SECRET' code in all of our voting systems, nationwide, owned and controlled by a handful of private corporations (the biggest one, ES&S/Diebold with far rightwing connections) and no auditing in half the states and inadequate auditing in the other half. Who knows what they are doing? They, do, in fact, have the ability--the easy ability--to rig elections, and have probably done so (Bush '04, Congress, governors, state leg's).

Conclusion: It is utterly amazing how well this campaign of ideas, led by the most principled and honest politician in the USA--and the best Democrat!--has done so far. Sanders is, in fact, still in the running as to the 'horse race' due to his incredible energy, the power of his ideas and the millions of people who have supported him as volunteers, donors and internet news activists. He has run a brilliant campaign and so have we. This campaign had NO chance six months ago. Now it has a chance, as to the 'horse race,' with March 15 behind us, and blue skies ahead.

But we need to be aware--very aware--of the handicaps we are operating under. They will probably intensify. I'm a Californian and, believe me, our state party is now a Corporate Democratic Party like all the rest. And that includes Gov. Jerry Brown. We are a socially liberal state but our Establishment is as bad as any of them on the most important matters: income inequality and filthy campaign $$ (and all its ills--lobbying, revolving door, rule by the uber-rich, etc.). I'm not saying Sanders can't win here--I think he can--but it won't be an easy ride.

ONE MORE TIME: This is a campaign of IDEAS, not a 'horse race'--or not only a 'horse race.' That is why Sanders is in it to the Convention, and, as to ideas, beyond the Convention. He has sparked a revolution--and we have sparked a revolution--that has the power to transform the Democratic Party into the party of the people once again, and to transform our country back into a democracy, which it has not been for some time now. We have only the vestiges of a hollowed out, rigged, and now Corporate-run democratic system to work with. Consider this to be the FIRST massive effort to change it from within. An amazing accomplishment, truly. And remember...SEABISCUIT! (Americans love an underdog!)

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