2016 Postmortem

Csainvestor

(388 posts) Tue Mar 15, 2016, 11:52 PM Mar 2016

Hillary is up by 300 but there are 2500 more delegates left

This isn't even close to being over.

20 replies

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Hillary is up by 300 but there are 2500 more delegates left (Original Post) Csainvestor Mar 2016 OP

Its over. JaneyVee Mar 2016 #1

That's nice. What percentage does Bernie have to win to catch up? Renew Deal Mar 2016 #2

You assume bernie won't win lanslides going forward Csainvestor Mar 2016 #5

How many delegates will he net? Renew Deal Mar 2016 #6

WA has 118 total delegates in a closed caucus. Not sure how many of those are supers. LonePirate Mar 2016 #13

17 are super-delegates Renew Deal Mar 2016 #15

Thanks. Your link is very useful and informative. LonePirate Mar 2016 #16

He has to start winning big. Big margins in big states. Codeine Mar 2016 #3

Hillary won landslides and so will bernie. Csainvestor Mar 2016 #7

She may be up by 350 by the time the dust settles tonight. Codeine Mar 2016 #11

It is. But it's still far from a sheer cliff, innit? Scootaloo Mar 2016 #19

There's an outside chance, always. Codeine Mar 2016 #20

Except that closed caucuses favor Clinton. Thor_MN Mar 2016 #17

Lets us know what you are investing in pkdu Mar 2016 #4

Fair enough; explain which States Sanders wins AND BY WHAT PERCENTAGE? brooklynite Mar 2016 #8

Bernie will need to win them by at least 1400-1100 (or 56%-44%) LonePirate Mar 2016 #9

And? Csainvestor Mar 2016 #10

A large state blowout gives him some wiggle room. A 56% average is his bare minimum though. LonePirate Mar 2016 #14

not even correct hill2016 Mar 2016 #12

No. It's over. Stuckinthebush Mar 2016 #18

JaneyVee

(19,877 posts)

1. Its over.

Reply to Csainvestor (Original post)

Tue Mar 15, 2016, 11:53 PM

Mar 2016

Renew Deal

(81,851 posts)

2. That's nice. What percentage does Bernie have to win to catch up?

Reply to Csainvestor (Original post)

Tue Mar 15, 2016, 11:53 PM

Mar 2016

And lets not pretend the super-delegates don't count.

Csainvestor

(388 posts)

5. You assume bernie won't win lanslides going forward

Reply to Renew Deal (Reply #2)

Tue Mar 15, 2016, 11:54 PM

Mar 2016

For example He could win Washington big.

Renew Deal

(81,851 posts)

6. How many delegates will he net?

Reply to Csainvestor (Reply #5)

Tue Mar 15, 2016, 11:55 PM

Mar 2016

LonePirate

(13,412 posts)

13. WA has 118 total delegates in a closed caucus. Not sure how many of those are supers.

Reply to Renew Deal (Reply #6)

Wed Mar 16, 2016, 12:03 AM

Mar 2016

Renew Deal

(81,851 posts)

15. 17 are super-delegates

Reply to LonePirate (Reply #13)

Wed Mar 16, 2016, 12:04 AM

Mar 2016

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/WA-D#0326

Of the other 101, lets say he wins 60-40. He nets 20. Of course, that's on the high end.

LonePirate

(13,412 posts)

16. Thanks. Your link is very useful and informative.

Reply to Renew Deal (Reply #15)

Wed Mar 16, 2016, 12:07 AM

Mar 2016

Codeine

(25,586 posts)

3. He has to start winning big. Big margins in big states.

Reply to Csainvestor (Original post)

Tue Mar 15, 2016, 11:53 PM

Mar 2016

Little wins won't mean anything. Clinton has a layer of ablative armor several feet thick at this point.

Csainvestor

(388 posts)

7. Hillary won landslides and so will bernie.

Reply to Codeine (Reply #3)

Tue Mar 15, 2016, 11:56 PM

Mar 2016

Washington State may bring a Bernie landslide.

Point remains. She is up by 300 points but there are still 2500 points left to earn.

Codeine

(25,586 posts)

11. She may be up by 350 by the time the dust settles tonight.

Reply to Csainvestor (Reply #7)

Tue Mar 15, 2016, 11:59 PM

Mar 2016

That's a huge friggin' hill to climb.

Scootaloo

(25,699 posts)

19. It is. But it's still far from a sheer cliff, innit?

Reply to Codeine (Reply #11)

Wed Mar 16, 2016, 12:15 AM

Mar 2016

Codeine

(25,586 posts)

20. There's an outside chance, always.

Reply to Scootaloo (Reply #19)

Wed Mar 16, 2016, 12:18 AM

Mar 2016

I just think the "math looks good" posts are quite silly.

Thor_MN

(11,843 posts)

17. Except that closed caucuses favor Clinton.

Reply to Csainvestor (Reply #7)

Wed Mar 16, 2016, 12:08 AM

Mar 2016

Open caucus is more favorable to Sanders.

pkdu

(3,977 posts)

4. Lets us know what you are investing in

Reply to Csainvestor (Original post)

Tue Mar 15, 2016, 11:54 PM

Mar 2016

Id like to avoid it please.

brooklynite

(94,452 posts)

8. Fair enough; explain which States Sanders wins AND BY WHAT PERCENTAGE?

Reply to Csainvestor (Original post)

Tue Mar 15, 2016, 11:57 PM

Mar 2016

LonePirate

(13,412 posts)

9. Bernie will need to win them by at least 1400-1100 (or 56%-44%)

Reply to Csainvestor (Original post)

Tue Mar 15, 2016, 11:58 PM

Mar 2016

Csainvestor

(388 posts)

10. And?

Reply to LonePirate (Reply #9)

Tue Mar 15, 2016, 11:59 PM

Mar 2016

He may win a large state in a blowout.

LonePirate

(13,412 posts)

14. A large state blowout gives him some wiggle room. A 56% average is his bare minimum though.

Reply to Csainvestor (Reply #10)

Wed Mar 16, 2016, 12:04 AM

Mar 2016

hill2016

(1,772 posts)

12. not even correct

Reply to Csainvestor (Original post)

Wed Mar 16, 2016, 12:00 AM

Mar 2016

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/democrats/

There are 2000 delegates left after today.

Stuckinthebush

(10,842 posts)

18. No. It's over.

Reply to Csainvestor (Original post)

Wed Mar 16, 2016, 12:10 AM

Mar 2016

The math doesn't work. It's done. Good fight but it's over.

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