2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumSo what do you think of all these YouGov Polls? (CO, FL, IA, NV, OH, PA, VA)
Obama leads in all but North Carolina where it's Romney +1
Latest Swing State Polls
Here are the latest polls from the battleground states, updated as needed:
Colorado: Obama 50%, Romney 45% (YouGov)
Florida: Obama 49%, Romney 47% (YouGov)
Iowa: Obama 50%, Romney 46% (YouGov)
Nevada: Obama 50%, Romney 45% (YouGov)
North Carolina: Romney 49%, Obama 48% (YouGov)
Ohio: Obama 50%, Romney 46% (YouGov)
Pennsylvania: Obama 51%, Romney 45% (YouGov)
Virginia: Obama 46%, Romney 45% (YouGov)
http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/10/16/latest_swing_state_polls.html
woolldog
(8,791 posts)And how accurate they've been in the past.
Do you have any info on that?
Of course the headline numbers are nice.
WI_DEM
(33,497 posts)the link will take you to the page where the polls are found then click on that link for whichever state you want to look at and it should have information regarding methodology, etc.
woolldog
(8,791 posts)Dont know what to think now.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)Mutiny In Heaven
(550 posts)Very good in the UK.
They're much more reliable than Gallup, though obviously every pollster has its up and downs.
woolldog
(8,791 posts)The numbers seem consistent with the rest of the polling I've seen, except florida and colorado, which I suspect is very close.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)Response to geek tragedy (Reply #9)
AverageJoe90 This message was self-deleted by its author.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,708 posts)In 2008, Rasmussen and the Pew Research Center polls were the best at picking who would be the next president and by what margin.
In fact, the two polling institutions' pre-election projections were the same as the actual election outcome, according to research by Costas Panagopoulos, a Fordham University political science professor.
Panagopoulos ranked 23 major polling organizations by the accuracy of their final 2008 presidential election polls. Here is his list:
1. Rasmussen
1. Pew Research Center
2. YouGov/Polimetrix
http://www.gazettenet.com/2012/09/15/a-look-at-polling-accuracy-in-2008
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)There's just no way to get a random sample online.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,708 posts).
Mutiny In Heaven
(550 posts)using this method and have usually been very accurate. Must weight their polls well.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,708 posts)They aren't polls where anybody can vote.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,708 posts)But as you can see by my above link some of the internet pollsters did much better than traditional posters.
My problem with yougov is their numbers are already five days old.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)like.
hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)otohara
(24,135 posts)They mix politics with business in their questions.
AverageJoe90
(10,745 posts)They have, in fact, done a better job than Gallup and Pew over these past few weeks. Their results tend to line up with ABC and NBC as well.
Though, TBH, I think they may be underestimating our advantage in Nevada. Remember what happened in 2010? Everybody thought Angle was going to win. Then her opponent kicked her ass to the curb. You know why that was? Three words: The. Chicano. Vote.
forestpath
(3,102 posts)didn't take VA again. And I'd feel a lot better if he was ahead by more than one point.