2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumEverything You Need To Know About The Bad Democratic Turnout Numbers
by Zach Carter
Senior Political Economy Reporter
Huff Post Politics
03/09/2016
WASHINGTON -- So far in the Democratic primary, there's only one set of circumstances in which the party is producing strong voter turnout: When Bernie Sanders wins a state, tons of voters are showing up. In Colorado, Kansas and Maine, Democrats have actually surpassed the turnout of the 2008 primary contests, while the caucuses in Minnesota and Nebraska only narrowly missed. Sanders won all five states. That's no small feat. Democrats were energized in 2008, eager to turn the page on the Bush years, and excited by two candidates whose election would have represented a breakthrough for millions of people.
But much of this primary season has been a different story. In every state that Hillary Clinton has won -- which is most states -- the party is seeing a significant decline in voter turnout from the 2008 election. Half as many Texas Democrats came out to vote this year than in 2008. In South Carolina, turnout was down by a third. Virginia? Down by one-fifth. A lot of these states don't really matter -- Democrats aren't going to win Mississippi or Alabama, no matter how many people show up at the primary, and they aren't going to lose Vermont no matter how many people are feeling the Bern.
But low turnout should be at least somewhat worrying to party leaders, since Clinton will almost certainly be the eventual Democratic nominee. There aren't many independent voters anymore. People like to tell pollsters they're independent, but the voting patterns of these people are typically heavily partisan. The Democratic Party has a major demographic edge over Republicans -- if it can get the Obama coalition of black, Latino and Asian-American voters to show up at the polls. When they do, as in 2012, they win. When they don't, as in 2014, they lose.
The good news for Clinton is that low turnout at the primary stage doesn't mean a party will lose in the general election. As Nate Silver has noted, the party that secured the most primary votes has lost seven elections since 1972. But it's still a meaningful way to gauge the excitement among a party's base. Ask anyone at the Democratic National Committee whether they'd like to see good turnout numbers in the primary, and they'll tell you that, yes, of course they would.
more here: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/low-democratic-voter-turnout_us_56e0944ae4b0b25c9180a3ee
tularetom
(23,664 posts)Maedhros
(10,007 posts)Trust Buster
(7,299 posts)o
chillfactor
(7,566 posts)is always poor in the primary season...I do not understand why folks get so hyped about the turn-out numbers..it is a media frenzy....nothing more.
leveymg
(36,418 posts)Todays_Illusion
(1,209 posts)effective they have been.
And why isn't the DNC spending money registering and assisting people in getting these devilishly specific voter IDs?
Could it be because low voter turnout helps Hillary?