RAND: Obama continues surge, now leads Romney by 5.15%

[Drunken Irishman]

Obama's gain wasn't as sharp as yesterday ... but Romney's drop was, as Romney's now down to 44.51% and Obama's up to 49.66.

So, Obama enters the second debate with some momentum. Hopefully he can take Mitt out for good!

https://mmicdata.rand.org/alp/?page=election#election-forecast

[ncav53]

1. Nice

[outsideworld]

2. great News

[bigdarryl]

3. And watch later on today

Some right wing pollster come out saying Obama is behind this seems to be a game with these guys.I don't know what Rands track record is but they use the same people

[dchill]

4. Well, with results like these...

This certainly isn't the AYN Rand Poll.

[68 Rex]

6. But RAND is generaaly right-leaning, eh?

If so, good news for Obama indeed!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. Rand Is A Left Leaning Think Tank

.

[TroyD]

5. How does the RAND poll make its calculations?

Is it based on following the same group of people over time?

And I'm wondering how Obama is going up in their poll, because it's still looking pretty tight in many places.

[Shivering Jemmy]

7. Their poll tracks mind changes

Bodes very well for us

[oswaldactedalone]

11. The Rand Poll

is a poll of the same 3500 people, the same 500 of whom are polled on a Sunday, the next 500 on a Monday, a different 500 on a Tuesday and so on. Today's poll reflects those who voted on Tuesday of last week through yesterday. 7 times 500 equals 3500. It also weights voter enthusiasm and decreases the value of a vote for the voter's candidate based on their self-reported enthusiasm for voting for that candidate.

The poll has been following the same 3500 people since July according to their description. Whether it's a reliable way to poll, no one seems to know. Guess we'll find out in three weeks.

[Maximumnegro]

21. Try reading the website. Jesus.

[Drahthaardogs]

8. These polls are absolutely crazy anymore.

I cannot keep them straight.

[Cosmocat]

9. Morning Joe - subdued

It was scarborough with a lot of his gop favorable henchmen, and they were surprisingly subdued.

I don't know, they seemed a bit pre-first debatish, not as cocky and high flying.

HOPEFULLY our guy rings the bell tonight and clearly takes the momentum again.

[TroyD]

10. Subdued or Nervous?

I wonder what's going on?

[Cosmocat]

13. I don't know

it was Joe and three other Halperin types, and the best I could take away was that they seemed to be not wanting to say that they felt Romney had to win pretty big.

I was surprised, I was expecting them to be flying higher for romney.

They talked about it, and Halperin denied it, but i think they sense that the media wants to balance out going overboard for Romney the last time ...

maybe I am just hoping that.

[davidpdx]

14. I think the national polls are good for showing momentum, but I'm concerned with the state by state

polls especially the swing states.

[Sugarcoated]

20. The swing states that we need are looking good

[WI_DEM]

15. This is the poll that keeps repolling the same people?

[abumbyanyothername]

16. They sample the same 3500 people over time July-Election

Each week they ask 1/7th of the sample the same three questions:

Who will you vote for?

How likely are you to vote (answer is a percentage)?

Regardless of who you support, who do you think will win?

[tarheelsunc]

17. I trust this more than a lot of other polls

By using a consistent voter sample, you can see the trends in opinion very accurately. The numbers may not always be exactly right but it does show the movement over time. We can conclude from this that President Obama is definitely on the upswing, probably as a result of Joe Biden stomping Paul Ryan. Even more startling is the rate at which Romney is losing support. It seems people aren't buying what Paul Ryan was selling.

[Jose_Jalapeno]

18. The Rand poll is an outlier

The average of all other polls, even excluding Rasmussen, has a tie or Romney slightly ahead. a 5% lead is not realistic. It may be that since Obama is ahead, we cling to this particular poll as hope.

Plus Rand has absolutely no track record to compare with whatsoever. They are rookies in this field.

[Sugarcoated]

19. It's got you nervous, doesn't it?

[Maximumnegro]

22. How can it be an outlier for the past 3 months

and it caught Romneys bounce before everyone else. So...

[Rosa Luxemburg]

23. How come NBC.com are saying that Romney is saying Romney is gaining momentum?

http://www.nbcnews.com/

I think the editor of nbcnews is a Repub

[Maximumnegro]

24. LOL. OH+NV = game over for Romney.

Obama can lose all the other swing states (I dont consider WI a swing).