Has Obama Already Won the Election?

[babylonsister]

Has Obama Already Won the Election?
Edward McClelland
Posted: 10/12/2012 10:22 PM


Barack Obama may have already won the presidential election. An NBC/WSJ/Marist poll out Thursday found that nearly 1 in 5 respondents have already cast ballots in Ohio, which began early voting last week. Obama is winning those early voters by a 63%-37% margin; among those who plan to vote on Election Day, Obama is leading, 48%-46%.

Ohio is the most important state in presidential politics. It has voted for the winner in every election since 1964. It’s especially important for Mitt Romney. No Republican has ever won the presidency without winning Ohio. And considering that Obama has already locked up the electoral votes of California, New York and Illinois, and is leading in Pennsylvania and Michigan, Romney can’t get to 270 electoral votes without at least one industrial state. As The New York Times put it, “There are few credible paths to the White House for Mitt Romney without winning Ohio.”

That’s why, between now and Saturday, Romney and his running mate Paul Ryan will make four campaign stops in Ohio.

If the poll is accurate, Romney is already in a deep hole in Ohio. If he does as well in the next two debates as he did last Thursday, he could win the state; but Obama has votes in the bank, so it’s much easier for him to protect his cushion than it is for Romney to overcome it. If Obama wins the next two debates, or even draws, Romney has no chance in Ohio.

more...

http://m.nbcchicago.com/nbcchicago/db_/contentdetail.htm?contentguid=WNxIYOc2&full=true#display

[writes3000]

1. How DARE you post an optimistic, positive article like this!!! Quick someone bring us down!

[desertduck]

25. hahahahahaha that made me lol nt

[K Gardner]

30. But he LOST THE FIRST DEBATE !! What is wrong with people !??? Argghh !!!

Thanks, Babylon Sister !

[graham4anything]

2. In one word YES

long as we all vote and everyone planning on voting votes, we got it.

pass it along to your friends and family and their friends and family and workers, etc.

[courseofhistory]

3. It certainly looks

that way! But keep up the GOTV and other activities until the election!

[TroyD]

4. NO!

You can never be sure what will happen until Election Night!

Remember, it's not who votes, it's who counts the votes!

We have to GOTV and remain vigilant against Republican operatives who are involved in fraud (several of whom have been caught on undercover video).

[Maximumnegro]

10. YES!!! Can it Troy.

[DonViejo]

15. It's been the nightmare on Elm Street around here all day.

I've never seen so much wailing and gnashing of teeth as existed here. Last night there were really awesome OP's and terrific analysis being performed on polls and commentaries. Today? The sky is falling, the sky is falling.

[TroyD]

18. Obama was +7 at this point in time in 2008; today Romney is +1

So there's a lot more work to be done.

Obama needs a bounce from this week's debate in order to close the deal and re-take the National lead.

[Blaukraut]

27. He's retaking the lead as we speak, so breathe

No, nothing is won yet, but we all have to keep in mind that Obama is not going to win in a landslide like he did 4 years ago. It will be tight, and it will be ugly, and the right will howl that he has no mandate and whatnot. But the odds are in his favor, as are the polls, so GOTV.

[Lone_Star_Dem]

26. There's still a lot of work to be done.

By us and by the campaign.

Staying vigilant is never bad advice, it's excellent advice at this point.

Work for a win, volunteer, GOTV.

Together we can win this thing!

[Sherman A1]

5. Yes, just about the time the GOP Primaries got underway

This has been over for a very long time. This election has always been his to lose, not the GOP Placeholder's to win.

[LisaL]

6. No, he didn't already win the election.

Democrats usually do better than republicans in early voting. Why do you think republicans want to limit early voting? Hello?

[treestar]

24. I was wondering about that

Which is odd, since it's harder for Dems to GOTV, while at the same time they do more early voting.

[Tigress DEM]

7. They can't steal a LANDSLIDE!! SO LET'S MAKE IT ONE. 80% OBAMA to 15% Robme and 5% OTHER

In our hearts and minds YES!!! BUT BOOTS ON THE GROUND, BUTTS out to VOTE 11/6/2012

NOTHING SHORT OF A HUMILIATING AND CRUSHING DEFEAT IS GOOD ENOUGH FOR THOSE GOONS who are trying to lie, cheat and steal their way into owning our country.

[Lone_Star_Dem]

8. Nah, but Obama's focus on Ohio is paying off.

Now, we all need to donate if we can, make calls for the campaign and GOTV.

The balls in our court now.

[daleanime]

9. Yes and no...

Yes, I have no doubt the Obama will receive far more votes then rMoney. But I have no faith left in the American System where every things up for sale.

[Baitball Blogger]

11. The only way that he will lose is if there are so many optimistic reports that people get

complacent and don't vote.

[writes3000]

13. Please give us examples of people getting complacent because of a positive post.

I can give you examples of people saying they are going to hide and sleep in over negative news.

[Baitball Blogger]

28. I think it's perilous to make sweeping generalizations either way.

There's a reason that Republicans call their voters on election day to put a fire under them to get up and vote. It's just a safer option.

[johnlucas]

12. Yes & by a LANDSLIDE at that

The date was Wednesday October 10th.
I posted a thread called ELECTION SPOILER: Obama wins by a LANDSLIDE.
I made a prediction that Obama would lead by 20% of the Popular Vote. Minimum 15%.
I reasoned that he will have this margin because his field of competitors were purely weak from the start.

Romney who was reluctantly selected as the strongest of the weak showed his weakness numerous times throughout this campaign.
His running mate is weak as the Vice President debate showed this past Thursday.

The only reason he can hold that stubborn 40% is because there's a lot of bitter idiotic mean-spirited bigots out there who are against Obama solely because they don't believe a Black man should be in charge.
They say Muslim because somehow they're afraid to say N*gger.
Don't ask me why. I can't grasp that level of non-logic.

And that also explains why that base doesn't significantly go down when screws up on the campaign with his Etch-A-Sketch changes.
Rush Limbaugh said it himself. Elmer Fudd could be running for all they care.
They are simply voting AGAINST Obama no matter what Romney says or does

The Popular Vote will definitely make the Electoral Vote an overwhelming guarantee.
AND he will shock everybody when he makes an unexpected state swing.
There's gonna be either a new Deep South state or Arizona or Indiana or any/all of the combination.

Yes, Obama has already won.
He won when they revealed the list of Republican candidates for 2012.
Easy pickings ever since.
John Lucas

[RedSpartan]

14. It ain't over 'till it's over...

But think about this.

IF Obama wins Ohio. And IF he wins PA, WI and MI...

All he has to do is win ONE of the following to get 270: NV, CO or IA. (A win in NH would result in a 269-269 tie.)

That means he can lose FL, VA, NC, NH, NV and CO and he wins if he wins IA.

Or he can lose FL, VA, NC, NH, NV and IA and he wins if he wins CO.

Or he can lose FL, VA, NC, NH, IA and CO and he wins if he wins NV.

Ohio is critical.

[MFM008]

16. 2 words

OHIO

Iowa

[RedSpartan]

21. Yes

Ohio

Iowa OR Nevada OR Colorado

Done.

[HopeHoops]

17. In reality yes, in the cheating realm, perhaps not.

Then again, if rMoney steals this one, it would only be the third time in our history.

[davidn3600]

19. I understand you want to be positive,

but that doesnt mean we need to be stupid too.

No one has won anything. And there is no official tally yet. These numbers are based on polls. And some pollsters have gave very mixed reviews concerning these early voting polls.

You REALLY want to base the next 4 years on these polls and call the election over?

[Third Doctor]

20. This looks good but we can't rest until we see 270 EVs for Obama in Nov.

[smorkingapple]

22. In the words of Harvey Keitel: "Let's not start ____ each others ____ just yet"

Obama does have a edge in Ohio but do not believe for a second it can't be reversed in these remaining weeks if he has another dreadful debate performance.

And I wish people here would recognize we may have lost a shot at a landslide win which would have given Obama a mandate he could clearly claim... Getting to 270 is a win but hardly what I wanted..

[treestar]

23. No

No one can until Nov. 6.

[Zambero]

29. Yes of course, just as Dewey did in '48!

Optimism is one thing, but complacency and overconfidence can be deadly enemies in a very close race. A victory scenario based on a poll of early voters in a single state is a positive sign indeed but does not guarantee much of anything. Conventional wisdom is that Romney might well hold a lead amongst those who have not yet voted in Ohio. How big a lead, and how many actually show up to vote could likely affect the outcome. And of course the last 2 debates. So for now, best to hold the champagne and keep our eyes on the ball!

[Tigress DEM]

31. CAN 72 Million DEMs get out to VOTE and Seal This DEAL?

THIS may be OLD numbers because there isn't a YEAR attached. AND with all the problems in FLORIDA with the rigged voting machines and in PA etc... with Voter ID / Voter Suppression, we just want to make it a LANDSLIDE of HISTORIC proportions.


http://wiki.answers.com/Q/How_many_registered_Democrats_are_there_in_the_US


An estimated 201.5 million U.S. citizens age 18 or over will be
eligible to vote Nov. 2, although many are not now registered.
Of these:

About 55 million are registered Republicans.

About 72 million registered Democrats.

About 42 million are registered as independents, under some other
minor party or with a "No Party" designation.'