2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumUPDATED!! Sanders is making one hell of a stand in Michigan.
Last edited Sat Mar 5, 2016, 08:33 PM - Edit history (1)
Two rallies in Michigan today; an early one in Traverse City, MI, and one just about to start at Grand Valley State in the Grand Rapids media market.
He's also scheduled a rally tomorrow in Macomb County, MI.
He'll be back Monday for the FoxNews town hall in Detroit.
All brilliant moves to pick off independents and disgruntled Republicans in our open primary on Tuesday.
He's poised to do well in tomorrow's caucuses, and a follow-up victory in Michigan would completely change this race.
We haven't had a decent poll in this state in a month, so who knows?!
Exciting weekend for the Mitten State.
UPDATE:
3 more MI rallies scheduled for MONDAY:
A Future to Believe In Kalamazoo Rally
Wings Event Center Doors open at 7:30am
A Future to Believe In Dearborn Rally
Michael A. Guido Theater Doors open at 12:00pm
GOTV Rally and Concert in Ann Arbor
Crisler Center at U. of M. Doors open at 4:00pm
It seems the Sanders campaign is "all in" on MI. I hope we can deliver!!
tularetom
(23,664 posts)nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)ok my ears perked up at THAT little piece of data
Barack_America
(28,876 posts)A real slice of America.
Had a pollster call yesterday, but my husband said I wasn't home. So pissed! But at least I know there's another one brewing.
nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)I refuse to answer them, and they are mostly for local issues.
We are local media, so I do not feel it is ethical for me to do such.
amborin
(16,631 posts)Clinton: Im the most transparent public official in modern times
Mark Hensch - 03/04/16 06:02 PM EST
Clinton: Im the most transparent public official in modern times
"This is not something people should be worried about," she added.
from The Hill
Qutzupalotl
(15,045 posts)localroger
(3,701 posts)Uncle Joe
(60,000 posts)thereismore
(13,326 posts)Avalux
(35,015 posts)yourpaljoey
(2,166 posts)me want
alcibiades_mystery
(36,437 posts)True story.
Barack_America
(28,876 posts)...either to bern out in a blaze of glory, or because the campaign sees an opportunity.
Given what I'm hearing casually talking to people here about the primary, I think it could be the latter.
alcibiades_mystery
(36,437 posts)Barack_America
(28,876 posts)Very curious to hear your thoughts.
alcibiades_mystery
(36,437 posts)I still think Clinton will win, but it's going to be a long contest now. I think Sanders may win Ohio and Wisconsin (I thought Wisconsin already). I don't think he has enough to win Illinois, Florida, New York, or California.
It was a very impressive showing.
Congrats.
Barack_America
(28,876 posts)I'm hoping Sanders still has a path to the nomination, but...
I truly think he has a chance in any state with an open primary. Independents clearly were the deciding factor in MI.
If he can continue to build momentum in some of those contests, then states like CA, NY and PA start to become interesting, IMO.
alcibiades_mystery
(36,437 posts)Both great candidates, in my opinion.
Cheese Sandwich
(9,086 posts)FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell 3/1 - 3/1 427 LV 4.7 61 33 Clinton +28
MRG 2/22 - 2/27 218 LV -- 56 36 Clinton +20
ARG 2/19 - 2/20 400 LV 5.0 53 40 Clinton +13
PPP (D)* 2/14 - 2/16 500 LV 4.4 50 40 Clinton +10
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/mi/michigan_democratic_presidential_primary-5224.html
If we can narrow this margin at all it would be good.
Barack_America
(28,876 posts)Just generally not up to current polling standards.
thereismore
(13,326 posts)Chichiri
(4,667 posts)So not the best pollster, or even close to the best, but good enough to be considered provided it's weighed appropriately.
kath
(10,565 posts)fair amount of time looking for this a week or two back, with no success.
kath
(10,565 posts)Previously, I found my way to their "pollsters ratings" section, but couldn't find a chart or anything else with the letter grades.
Response to Barack_America (Reply #10)
Name removed Message auto-removed
kath
(10,565 posts)winning by 10.5%!
Le Taz Hot
(22,271 posts)will close the gap.
Barack_America
(28,876 posts)BTW, I just updated the thread with the 3 new MI rallies added for Monday.
Bernie's all in on MI.
UglyGreed
(7,661 posts)silverweb
(16,402 posts)[font color="purple"]Feelin' The Bern!
Arizona Roadrunner
(168 posts)Bernie has pointed out Clinton's statements of support for the companies in India bringing contract H-1b employees to the USA and Michigan. He also should say this is why we need to see what she told Goldman-Sachs for the $675,000. How much support did she give them?
By the way, when is she going to have a legitimate press conference where reporters can challenge her "weasel" worded statements?
AzDar
(14,023 posts)Chichiri
(4,667 posts)Barack_America
(28,876 posts)...and that shows the race was already tightening, before the ad buys, rallies, etc.
Chichiri
(4,667 posts)It's based on all recent polls, weighted for reliability and recency and corrected for known bias, and other factors such as national polling and endorsements. If you look at the projections and polling averages, they show that the race did tighten somewhat up until February 15 or so -- at its tightest, Hillary had only a 95% chance of winning the state. Her lead has increased since then, and she now has a greater than 99% chance of winning.
navarth
(5,927 posts)It's pretty blue collar over there.
Barack_America
(28,876 posts)Not big fans of free trade, or the Clintons.
Response to Barack_America (Original post)
Name removed Message auto-removed
monicaangela
(1,508 posts)I don't believe Bernie will do much good on that side of the state. The other either. The DeVos family are like the Koch brothers when it comes to Michigan, they won't want Bernie to win.
http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2014/01/devos-michigan-labor-politics-gop
dreamnightwind
(4,775 posts)He will do well in other states, Hillary loosks pretty strong in Michigan. I don't know enough about the state to know why. I would love to be wrong but I think she'll win by quite a bit.
Anyway great that Bernie is taking the fight to Michigan in a big way.
We focus too much on winning and losing states. That's relevant in winner-take-all situations, but in proportionately allocated primaries it's just about how many delegates one candidate gets verses another, and about bragging rights that you "won" a state's primary. Overblown. Hopefully the margin in Michigan isn't too bad for Bernie.
Kentonio
(4,377 posts)If he'd lost all the states on Super Tuesday but come away with the same delegates he has now, his campaign would be over basically. If he starts winning most states from here on out, things could change quickly.
Robbins
(5,066 posts)majority of blacks in michigan will vote clinton no matter what.he may be able to make it closer than some polls suggested but
that is it.
Barack_America
(28,876 posts)So you have to factor in independents who would like a say.