2016 Postmortem

Alfresco

(1,698 posts) Wed Mar 2, 2016, 04:18 PM Mar 2016

Today's Nate's 538 Primary Polls-Only Forecast: Florida-Hillary-99%, Bernie-1%

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/florida-democratic/#polls-only

According to our latest polls-only forecast, Hillary Clinton has a greater than 99% chance of winning the Florida primary.

16 replies

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Highlight:

Today's Nate's 538 Primary Polls-Only Forecast: Florida-Hillary-99%, Bernie-1% (Original Post) Alfresco Mar 2016 OP

Florida has 214 delegates... SidDithers Mar 2016 #1

Sanders is Wearing Her Down-Should be Photo-Finish Stallion Mar 2016 #2

He has predicted that 4 of the 5 March 15 states will go to Hillary: FL, IL, NC & OH. Beacool Mar 2016 #3

And March 8, Michigan :-) Alfresco Mar 2016 #4

And... JaneyVee Mar 2016 #5

Yes, MI too. Beacool Mar 2016 #9

Thats a virtual tie. nt LexVegas Mar 2016 #6

Within Margin of Error Stallion Mar 2016 #15

"Surrender Bernie!" AzDar Mar 2016 #7

I don't pay attention to 538. When did they predict Sanders would win WhaTHellsgoingonhere Mar 2016 #8

Surrender Hillary (to your inner-self) Impedimentus Mar 2016 #10

Excellent! Hillary will MOST DEFINITELY be the nominee ... NurseJackie Mar 2016 #11

Dixie nt firebrand80 Mar 2016 #12

K&R!!!! beaglelover Mar 2016 #13

Never fear. Between the Hillary haters here and the GOP, they will be pulling out all the stops to Jitter65 Mar 2016 #14

Some DU diehards will attempt to throw "math" under the bus. oasis Mar 2016 #16

SidDithers

(44,228 posts)

1. Florida has 214 delegates...

Reply to Alfresco (Original post)

Wed Mar 2, 2016, 04:28 PM

Mar 2016

And current polling is Clinton 62 - Bernie 34.

A +28 margin for Clinton, if it were to hold, translates into a gain of 60ish delegates.

And the Sanders hole gets deeper and deeper.

Sid

Stallion

(6,474 posts)

2. Sanders is Wearing Her Down-Should be Photo-Finish

Reply to Alfresco (Original post)

Wed Mar 2, 2016, 04:33 PM

Mar 2016

Beacool

(30,247 posts)

3. He has predicted that 4 of the 5 March 15 states will go to Hillary: FL, IL, NC & OH.

Reply to Alfresco (Original post)

Wed Mar 2, 2016, 04:35 PM

Mar 2016

There's no recent polling in Missouri.

Alfresco

(1,698 posts)

4. And March 8, Michigan :-)

Reply to Beacool (Reply #3)

Wed Mar 2, 2016, 04:39 PM

Mar 2016

JaneyVee

(19,877 posts)

5. And...

Reply to Alfresco (Reply #4)

Wed Mar 2, 2016, 04:40 PM

Mar 2016

Its nearly a wrap.

Beacool

(30,247 posts)

9. Yes, MI too.

Reply to Alfresco (Reply #4)

Wed Mar 2, 2016, 05:01 PM

Mar 2016

LexVegas

(6,046 posts)

6. Thats a virtual tie. nt

Reply to Alfresco (Original post)

Wed Mar 2, 2016, 04:43 PM

Mar 2016

Stallion

(6,474 posts)

15. Within Margin of Error

Reply to LexVegas (Reply #6)

Wed Mar 2, 2016, 05:56 PM

Mar 2016

AzDar

(14,023 posts)

7. "Surrender Bernie!"

Reply to Alfresco (Original post)

Wed Mar 2, 2016, 04:44 PM

Mar 2016

WhaTHellsgoingonhere

(5,252 posts)

8. I don't pay attention to 538. When did they predict Sanders would win

Reply to Alfresco (Original post)

Wed Mar 2, 2016, 04:50 PM

Mar 2016

in MN, OK, and CO (I'll give him the benefit of the doubt on VT)?

Did he have MA for Bernie then switch to Hillary? Or OK for Hillary? Not sure why people swear by him since all he's doing is confirming the polls the day of.

Impedimentus

(898 posts)

10. Surrender Hillary (to your inner-self)

Reply to Alfresco (Original post)

Wed Mar 2, 2016, 05:08 PM

Mar 2016

If Sec. Clinton had any integrity she would do some strong self-reflection, look into her inner-self, and see what a flawed candidate she is. Feel the Bern Sec. Clinton, surrender to your inner-self and throw your support to Sen. Sanders. You will go down in history as a great human being and the savior of her country.