Yesterda, Bernie lost AL by 61, AR by 36, GA by 43, TX by 32, TN by 34, and VA by 29...

[SidDithers]

Realistically, which of the remaining states can Bernie win by 30-40 points to offset these landslide losses in the southern states.

He needs to earn delegates, not states. And the only way for him to do that is to win big in delegate heavy states.

Sid

[GoldenThunder]

1. Hope you have comfortable shoes.

This race is going the distance.

[SidDithers]

3. Which states?...nt

Sid

[mahina]

38. With some modifications for votes to date,

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/bernie-sanderss-path-to-the-nomination/

[SidDithers]

46. That's 2 weeks old...

it was done before massive Clinton wins in the South.

"Sanders needs to beat the right column targets to win the nomination"

He needed to lose TN by no more than 4 points.
He lost by 34.

He needed to lose VA by no more than 9 points.
He lost by 29.

He needed to lose AR by no more than 20 points.
He lost by 36.

He needed to lose TX by no more than 20 points.
He lost by 32.

He needed to lose GA by no more than 24 points.
He lost by 43.

He needed to lose AL by no more than 27 points.
He lost by 59.


The results last night threw that rosy projection onto the scrap heap.

Sid

[leveymg]

55. Doesn't matter what the difference is. The GOP will likely take all those states in the GE, anyway.

The only one that's a possible is VA, and the Dem turnout in the VA primary was 20% lower than in 2008. Overall, our turnout was 32% below 2008 levels in Super Tuesday states, while the GOP upturned 60 percent in the same states. The more conservative the state, generally the better Hillary did. But, proportionately, she failed to turn out the Democratic vote there. Looks like the Right don't like her any better than the Left, and the Independents either stay home or go Trump. If this is taste of things to come, forget it. See, below.

Democratic Turnout Down 32% In Super Tuesday States Compared To 2008
Photo of Chuck Ross
Chuck Ross
Reporter
10:31 AM 03/02/2016


The number of Democrats who voted in Super Tuesday states this cycle was down 32 percent this year compared to 2008, according to a Daily Caller analysis of primary and caucus results.

Meanwhile, GOP turnout was up a monstrous 61 percent in Super Tuesday states compared to 2008 and up 73 percent compared to 2012.

The huge disparity is further evidence of the so-called enthusiasm gap that is a growing cause of concern for Democrats. In the first four primaries and caucuses, Democratic turnout was down 26 percent compared to 2008. Democratic party leaders — as well as the campaign of prospective nominee Hillary Clinton — are worried that the trend will continue through to the general election in November. (RELATED: Democratic Voter Turnout Is Down A Whopping 26% In 2016 Compared To 2008)

Overall, 5.8 million Democrats voted in 11 Super Tuesday primaries and caucuses. That’s well off the 8.56 million that hit the polls in those same states in 2008, which saw a new wave of Democratic registrants eager to cast a vote for then-Illinois Sen. Barack Obama.

Turnout virtually cratered in Texas, which Clinton won in both cycles. There, just over 1.4 million voted this go-round compared to 2.87 million in 2008. The 51 percent slide is the steepest of any of the contests held Tuesday.

Turnout was also down significantly in Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia and Tennessee. It fell 28 percent, 34 percent, 29 percent, and 41 percent in those states, respectively.

The upside for Clinton, who won seven of the 11 Super Tuesday states that were up for grabs, is that the states with the largest drop in turnout are red and are unlikely to select a Democrat come November.

But turnout also dipped significantly in Virginia, a key battleground state. In 2008 just over 986,000 voted in the primary. This year, around 780,000 showed up, marking a 21 percent decline.

Read more: http://dailycaller.com/2016/03/02/democratic-turnout-down-32-in-super-tuesday-states-compared-to-2008/#ixzz41m8fvHzx

[mahina]

39. Hey GoldenThunder,

Welcome to DU!

Agreed 100%, Bernie said he's in for the whole race and the thing about him I love is, he means ust what he says

[JaneyVee]

45. I hope you do too

And this doesnt even include Florida where shes up big

[TCJ70]

2. For people so concerned about electability...

...shouldn't you be concerned about Hillary's performance in blue states?

[SidDithers]

4. Which states?...nt

Sid

[TCJ70]

9. These...

VT, NH, MN, CO. You know, the ones that will win us the GE?

[onenote]

25. You seriously think that Clinton would lose Vermont to Trump?

That's hysterical.

You probably thought that Obama would lose California to McCain in 2008 since Obama lost the California primary by 7 points.
(For the record, Obama won California in the GE by 14).

[mahina]

40. Exactly.

I'm sure that wasn't missed by the right.

[JaneyVee]

44. Like Massachusetts?

[Agschmid]

60. Shhh...

Don't mention Mass. It ruins the narrative.

[firebrand80]

5. I dunno, does Reddit have a caucus? Nt

[auntpurl]

18. Ok, I'm sorry, I do try to remain civil at all times to Bernie supporters

but that made me laugh so hard.

[Capn Sunshine]

6. Swarm!Swarm!

and welcome to DU new guy.

[HooptieWagon]

7. Solid wins by Hillary in states she'll get trounced in GE.

Outside the Deep South, she barely managed to pick up 3 states. Doesn't appear to be an electable candidate in the GE.

[SidDithers]

10. Which states will give Bernie landslide wins?...nt

Sid

[HooptieWagon]

19. He's gotten double digit wins in the NE, MidWest, and West.

The only region where he's had double digit losses is the GOP voting Deep South, which has been pushed to the front of the primary schedule.

[NWCorona]

22. Landslides? Not sure as he has always been the underdog

But Bernie locking Hillary out of VT was huge. Even if it's his home state.

Hillary's weakness shouldn't be overlooked

[SidDithers]

31. VT was 16 delegates...

Hillary's landslide in GA earned her 42 more delegates than Bernie.

That's 2 1/2 x Vermont.

Sid

[NWCorona]

32. But that isn't the point I was making

I'm aware of the math but the question was landslide and that's what happened in VT.

[Avalux]

8. NONE of those states mean a hill o' beans in the GE except maybe VA.

Bernie did much better than I expected last night and I'm thrilled with his delegate take at this point. Soon Hillary will exhaust the south.

I hear she needs money too, so is holding a fundraiser with NRA lobbyists. Will she stop speaking out about gun violence now?

This ain't over until the convention.

[mindem]

11. How many of those states did Obama carry in 2012

and what amazing miracle is Clinton going perform to carry the south in the general. It I a moot argument.

[NWCorona]

23. Hillary's no Obama in regards to draw

Bernie either for that matter.

[7wo7rees]

12. And so this is a victory Sid? Like it has been pointed out, 15 states, that is all. How many left?

I'm feeding birds today.

[SidDithers]

15. Which states?...

Lets work the scenarios.

Posters keep saying that after March 15, the states are more favourable to Bernie.

Which ones are the landslides?

Sid

[7wo7rees]

24. Do love your contrary ass. Truly. Shall we start with California? I see it going the way Colorado

And Oklahoma went.

Try to give it a rest.

[Agnosticsherbet]

13. The Math of a proportional division of delegates favors Clinton.

It isn't impossible for Sanders, but as long as she is competitive in most states, she will win in the end. And if she continues to win blowouts, it will soon reach the point where a Sanders win becomes impossible, even if he goes all the way to the Convention.

[SDJay]

14. I'll Be Curious

to see updated polling for CA, OR and WA. If SBS's statistical trend mirrors what happened in some other states, he'll clean up out here. The last CA poll I saw was around the first of the year and it had HRC up by 11, I believe. Much has happened since then, and we've all seen how Bernie has closed huge gaps in other places.

CA could be very interesting. OR and WA could be also.

[angrychair]

26. WA is all Bernie

That is a lock.

[seaotter]

16. Even after all that, she is still under FBI investigation.

[angrychair]

33. Yes, Seaotter, she is

http://thehill.com/policy/national-security/271387-fbi-director-i-am-closely-involved-with-clinton-email-investigation

[Logical]

17. Lol, sid being sid! Nt

[SidDithers]

21. You're a science and evidence guy...

You know the delegate math is bad. Bernie needs landslides to counter the landslide losses last night.

Are there states where Bernie can make up great clumps of delegates all at once?

I don't think there are.

Does anyone really think he's going to beat Clinton by 20 pts in California? And even a 20 pt victory means he picks up maybe 95 delegates.

He'll be down 300ish by next week.

Sid

[Jackie Wilson Said]

28. I wish Hillary supporters would start to put public pressure on Hillary to adopt Bernie's

plans once she is nominated, and she probably will be.

The idea that we are going to go another 8-16 years without universal healthcare makes me sick.

angry
etc

[Logical]

30. Why do you care? He can stay in the race as log as he wants. What difference....

Does it make? Money still flowing in and he can hammer home points hillary is ignoring.

[morningfog]

20. It pains me to say what other Bernie supports refuse to say, there are none.

Sanders will win some more states, and some even by decent margins. But, HIllary will win more states and by larger margins and will add to her lead.

It's a simple question of how to make up the difference and the Southern state results have made it damn near impossible.

A Bernie nomination, considering the true state of the race, depends on a significant game-changing event. It would have to be a scandal, a health issue or an unexpected withdrawal from the race of HIllary.

[One of the 99]

27. I can see a Bernie landslide on the West coast

All big states.

[Vinca]

29. So can I.

I've been trying to guess Bernie's strategy and that's my first guess. I doubt he can overcome Hillary's lead when the superdelegates are thrown in, but I still think it's possible to equalize the awarded delegates. If he should end up with a majority of the awarded delegates and the superdelegates don't flip, there will be hell to pay.

[SidDithers]

34. OK, take Oregon...

what do you think is a realistic win for Bernie.

20 points? 30?

Even at 30 points, he's only picking up 18 delegates.


How about Washington. Can he win by 20 points?

A 20 point win, and he picks up 20 delegates.



Clinton's delegate margin in Texas is going to be 90 or more when all is said and done.

The math doesn't lie.

Sid

[One of the 99]

37. What about California?

[SidDithers]

41. Hillary won 70% of the Latino vote in Texas yesterday...

And upwards of 80% of the AA vote in the southern states.

How much do you realistically think Bernie can win CA by?

Realistically.

Sid

[ThePhilosopher04]

35. Hillary has zero shot in the general when her only reliable vote ...

are African Americans and older white women. She will get run off the map by Trump.

[BreakfastClub]

43. Well if that's true, Bernie has even less of a reliable vote--only white young liberals. nt

[lunamagica]

52. And Latinos. And GLBT

[SoLeftIAmRight]

36. They have a prayer breakfast ...

Those God fearing states have some problems with reality

Surprised that you feel so at home with those ideas

[BreakfastClub]

42. So entire populations in the South are out of touch with reality b/c they didn't vote Bernie? LOL nt

[Scurrilous]

47. boink..

[amborin]

48. those are conservative & red states for most part; will be red in the GE

[SidDithers]

49. And?...

Those are Democrats living in red states that cast those votes. And their primary votes are just as legitimate as the primary votes cast in MN or VT or NY or CA.

Which of the remaining states will Sanders win by landslides?

Sid

[amborin]

62. elections in the US are not won by popular vote but by electoral coll; many states winner take all

look your states up and see if the Dem candidate gets any elec coll votes

[SidDithers]

63. You do know that this is still the Democratic Primary, don't you?...

In the US, there is a process called the Primary, where voters in every state cast ballots, or caucus, to select a person to be their parties nominee in the General Election.

Those state by state elections award delegates that are proportional to the votes cast for each candidate in that particular state, and then the candidate with the most delegates becomes the party nominee.

Once the party nominee has been selected, that nominee competes for electoral college votes against the nominee from other parties.

Sid

[Hortensis]

50. All this talk of California landslides makes me think.

What's Bernie's path to victory if the Pacific states break off into the ocean before they vote? He wouldn't need to win over Californians then.

[Csainvestor]

51. Bernie will win more states in the north east

Bernie will also win washington state and oregon.

Bernie will do VERY WELL in places like Brooklyn and Queens, NY and California are in play for Bernie.

Florida is winnable for Bernie, Alan Grayson is currently winning the primary for senate in FL and He just endorsed Bernie.

[sweetloukillbot]

53. Bernie can't just do well though

He needs to blow Clinton out with victory margins similar or greater than his margin in New Hampshire. That might happen in some of the Western caucus states, but it's not going to happen in New York, Florida, California, Illinois, Michigan or Ohio. He might win them, but not enough to significantly dent her lead.

[Csainvestor]

54. Bernie will win NY

As long as he stays close to Hillary, he can beat her at the end in NY and CA.

[sweetloukillbot]

56. But can he win by 30-40 points?

That's what he needs to do. Narrow or even a 10-point victory won't do it. He just won't get enough delegates. If we were winner-take-all, it would make a big difference, but because it's proportional he needs to skunk her. I don't see that happening.

[Csainvestor]

57. he won't need to.

he will pick up delegates in the west and the north.
by the time he gets to CA and NY he won't need landslides to win it.

[sweetloukillbot]

59. He will need landslides

Even with landslides in the Pacific Northwest, there aren't enough delegates in the states he's favored to make up for the deficit he's in without big wins in delegate rich states.

[NCTraveler]

58. Wow. Those margins are enormous. nt

[SidDithers]

64. Welcome to DU...

Sid