Guess what...the campaign didn't end on Super Tuesday.

[Ken Burch]

Bernie did better overall than anyone really expected.

[SidDithers]

1. No, he didn't...nt

Sid

[AZ Progressive]

2. Hillary was supposed to have had it wrapped up by today

[RobertEarl]

4. Firewall?

Tonight it's more like water over the dam.

The Bern burned right thru that firewall.

[Garrett78]

9. The truth is she had it wrapped up when Biden opted out of running.

Nevada was the beginning of the end, and Super Tuesday was a bad day for Sanders delegate-wise. Could it have been worse? Um, sure. But the next couple of Tuesdays and beyond are in Clinton's favor. Sanders is in a big hole, which is only going to get deeper.

[TSIAS]

7. He won 4 states

I remember Hillary supporters saying he wouldn't win states other than VT and NH.

[SidDithers]

11. And did so badly in the states he lost...

that the extra delegates awarded to Clinton more than offset the delegates gained by Sanders in the states he picked up.

In terms of delegates, which is really the only thing that matters, Sandrrs fell short of what he needed.

Sid

[mhatrw]

12. Hillary's awesomely funded, establishment-backed pay-to-play shtick plays great in deep red states.

And nowhere else.

Democrats could literally not field a worse candidate than Hillary Clinton in terms of riling up the Republican base to vote against her while leaving the Democratic base stone cold. Nor could the Democrats find a single worse individual to nominate in terms of unfavorability ratings among independent voters.

[Garrett78]

13. Many solidly 'blue' states have yet to vote...

and many will be won by Clinton. IL, MI, OH, PA, NY, MD, CA, etc., etc., etc.

Folks should stop denying that reality. The level of delusion I'm witnessing on this board tonight is unhealthy.

[tk2kewl]

16. pesky facts...

This is where the pledged delegate count stands this morning

There are 4,051 total pledged delegates in the primary.

Clinton has 633 pledged delegates so far or 15.6% of the total.

Sander has 414 pledged delegates so far 10.2% or of the total.

With 74.2% of the pledged delegates and 34 more states remaining.

Those of us in those other 34 states representing 3/4 of the electorate plan on having a say in this.

[SidDithers]

17. More pesky facts...

Here are two versions of the target Sanders needed from Super Tuesday, to have a path a the nomination:




How many delegates do you think Sanders is going to get from yesterday, once all the delegates have been awarded?
Answer - fewer than either of these targets. He's at 284 from yesterday right now, with 128 delegates still to be portioned out. Note that 52 of those 128 are coming from Texas, where Clinton won big.

And where do you think Sanders is going to make up a 200+ delegate deficit? Which large states do you think he'll win by big margins to get big numbers of delegates all at once?

Oh, and don't say California. Clinton took 70% of the latino vote in Texas yesterday, which bodes well for her in California.

Sid

[tk2kewl]

18. i ignore super delegates until all the people have voted

3/4 of us have yet to vote...

your table doesn't mean much to me w/o a key and a source so i can understand what info it intends to convey to me

[SidDithers]

21. I didn't mention, and didn't include any superdelegate numbers in my post...

those numbers are purely pledged delegates from last night.

Here's where I got the table. There's a bit more explanation in this thread:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511384530

The numbers are pulled from these two sites:

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/democrats/

and

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/3/1/1492717/-SC-Democratic-Primary-analysis-and-Super-Tuesday-preview-Dems-not-just-Sanders-have-a-big-problem

They're both long entries, but the data is in there.

Sid

[tk2kewl]

22. projections are *based* on facts, but they are not themselves facts...

even if they are statistically significant.

I don't think any Bernie supporter is under the illusion that his path to the nomination is quite difficult. but the simple fact that i stated is that 3/4 of the electorate has yet to vote and the current delegate split is 15% to 10%.

we will continue until the convention

[Cobalt Violet]

23. yes he did.

He was only suppose to win VT.

[RobertEarl]

3. It is almost amazing

But this is the future. Bernie will keep gaining and keep surprising. I had to laugh at the TV pundits that last week were openly in wonder at the Bern. That, 9 months after we on DU were in wonder over this magnificent political force.

[reformist2]

5. Bernie has won FIVE states now, in all parts of the country. There's a prairie fire burning!

[SamKnause]

6. I only see 4 listed.

Where are you getting your info. ???

I got mine from the front page of Huffington Post.

[TSIAS]

8. NH

Overall he's won 5 states.

[Wednesdays]

10. Obama didn't clinch the nomination until June 3

In the 2008 race. So, if that's any indication, this is still VERY early in the season.

[Garrett78]

14. But it isn't any indication.

And people need to stop suggesting that there's a comparison. There isn't. The 2008 race was down to the wire between 2 very similar candidates. States that Obama won in 2008 are very Clinton-friendly in 2016. And most of the Clinton-friendly states from 2008 are still Clinton-friendly with few exceptions.

[McCamy Taylor]

15. THis is called "lower the bar."

[LexVegas]

19. No, he really didn't.nt

[Adrahil]

20. No, not really....

538 actually predicted that he would get more delegates than he did.

He did better than I expected in OK ( I expected that to be a squeaker... it wasn't. I expected MA to be a squeaker lose for him. It was.

But Hillary's margins among AA's and Hispanics are stunning, leading to blowout victories int eh South. Bernie cannot win the nomination with those kinds of margins. You can't win the Dem nomination winning only with white people and young people.

[UglyGreed]

24. It ain't over