So....Nate Silver was right about Hillary winning Massachusetts

[Cali_Democrat]

[redstateblues]

1. I'll have to admit I thought Bernie would win there

[itsrobert]

2. So did Bernie

n/t

[Lizzie Poppet]

16. Only a very small delegate spread, though.

I was hoping he might win, too...but even if he doesn't (called for Hillary, but with over 15% uncounted as I type this), his delegate tally there will be good.

[litlbilly]

3. pin a ribbon on him. Where is the sweep you guys predicted?

[Cali_Democrat]

4. Who predicted a sweep tonight?

That would be a strange prediction considering Hillary had almost no chance in Vermont.

[Stallion]

14. There Wasn't Much Polling in States Sanders Won

nm

[MADem]

15. Really!! Keeping Sanders "under 90 percent" in VT could be regarded as a victory--LOL! nt

[Codeine]

11. Nobody predicted a sweep.

I'm sure some dumbass newb posted that in some group or other, but nobody with an ounce of sense thought Clinton would sweep it. She outperformed like a fucking BOSS in the South, though.

[mythology]

5. Obviously just more evidence of his bias against Clinton

[SheenaR]

6. Hillary was a LARGE favorite to win this morning

On all of the betting sites. Not unexpected.

Every poll had her up for a week also

[jillan]

7. Congrats Hillary supporters - that was a sweet win for Hillary & a heartbreak for Bernie.

[Beacool]

10. It was close.

He'll get a number of delegates out f it.

[Codeine]

8. It's almost like he knows what he's doing, eh?

Bernie needed some delegate advantage there, too.

[Beacool]

9. Yep, that he was.

Has he been correct about every other race for both parties?

[morningfog]

12. We he right about CO, MN and OK?

[MADem]

18. I thought he called OK for BS, but I am not sure. Don't know about the others, to be honest. nt

[jeff47]

20. He called OK for Clinton, 51-49. No call on CO or MN.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/oklahoma-democratic/

[MADem]

23. He said she had a fifty one percent chance of winning. That's one point off of saying fifty fifty.

I'll be quite blunt--if I had to choose, for Clinton, a choice of OK or MA, I'd take MA any day of the week.

But truly at the end of the day this is more about bragging rights. The delegate count isn't a huge swing in either contest.

This was a very good night for Clinton. She must be very pleased.

[morningfog]

24. It was an honest question. I don't know or remember.

[MADem]

32. We tend to focus on the contests of greatest interest to us.

I was very focused on MA. Surprised and pleased at the outcome--this was a very good win tonight here in the Commonwealth. The point spread in Boston was a big flapping deal, too. She crushed it, despite incessant ads that ran constantly (the "Look for America" one came on every half hour it seemed).

This was ground game that pulled it out for her--tight, textbook, ground game and superb organization.

[morningfog]

33. I too was surprised by the MA results.

I had watched it narrow and felt like it would go to Hillary today. I got several mailers from Hillary but with no tv didn't see the ads play.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

13. And Nate was shitted on too. But I feel his pain. Treatment of black voters was absolutely

despicable.

But that's o.k. Those people will get a big serving of REALITY tonight.

[Recursion]

17. Damn, MA is one on the chin

I was expecting Sanders to outperform that.

[MADem]

21. The campaign had some superb outreach here.

Lots of GOTV voter contact, verification of polling places (which changed in many places), rides to the polls, etc.

[jeff47]

19. And wrong about Oklahoma. (nt)

[Cali_Democrat]

25. Hillary 51% to 49% for Bernie...percentage chance to win.

Not all that bad for Nate though!

Basically a 50/50 split.

[jeff47]

27. And she lost by 10. (Assuming the current margin holds).

That's a miss for Silver.

[Cali_Democrat]

28. Nate's model doesn't predict margin of victory....

It only assigns a percentage chance to win.

Not familiar with his work, eh?

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-we-are-forecasting-the-2016-presidential-primary-election/

[jeff47]

29. No, I'm quite aware.

I'm also aware that a 10-point-win is outside his MOE.

[Cali_Democrat]

30. What margin of error are you referring to? nt

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

26. Guess the Berniebros need to pull him from under the bus

[Cheese Sandwich]

31. Virtual tie in Mass. 538 was wrong about Oklahoma

[MADem]

34. It was close in MA but she won Boston by a good amount, AND Worcester.

You don't win the state without those two.

Sanders had a good deal of support in the Western part of the state--unfortunately, that's not a population center so even though you get a lot of "map color" for those kinds of wins, you don't get as many votes.