Intrade is starting to get me down

[DavidDvorkin]

I used to look at it to be cheered up.

[a kennedy]

1. I used to post what Intrade indicated and felt the fury of DU....

they told me Intrade was nothing but a repub hack institution.....and now....I cry at where Intrade shows the POTUS.

[Maximumnegro]

5. Well in their forum

some folks did a good job of breaking things down:

Ohio

It's all about Ohio.

[DavidDvorkin]

9. The politics of the people who run Intrade are irrelevant

And I don't know that the people who run Intrade have been open about their politics, anyway.

DUers are too quick to dismiss and denigrate sites that show numbers they don't like.

[Liberal_in_LA]

2. stop it. A big hunk of people have already voted. for Obama

[geek tragedy]

3. Watch baseball then. nt

[DavidDvorkin]

7. Nah. I hate sports.

[geek tragedy]

8. You're going to hate politics more for the next month. nt

[Maximumnegro]

4. PPP OH post-VP looks to be close

and the debate was a draw they are saying so far in their findings. All I care about really are the early votes. 3 1/2 weeks is a LONG time, in fact just the perfect amount of time to turn things around without allowing a rebound for Romney so I am still confident. If Romney is pulling ahead, better it happen now than a week from now that's for sure.

[geek tragedy]

6. Poll would factor early votes in. nt

[meadowlark5]

10. I don't understand why the polls keep moving in Romney's direction

Has anyone heard what it's based on? It can't possibly be still from the debate last week. This country's memory isn't that long. Hell, they've totally forgotten about the 47% remark - they would have had to to have the polls improve for him.

I don't understand what it's based on, what is the "thing" that is making them move towards that liar? Does he have better political ads now? I don't get it.

[geek tragedy]

12. Want the truth?

Obama's campaign was based on disqualifying Romney. They really have gone negative on him much moreso than they've built Obama up.

Then, 70 million people watched to see the two of them together, unfiltered.

And in those 90 minutes Romney acted like a winner and Obama acted like a loser. Romney was confident and optimistic, Obama was uncomfortable and dithering.

Obama was incapable of making a coherent argument for his own candidacy, let alone dinging Romney.

Obama lost the election with that debate.

[meadowlark5]

14. But that was a week ago and the numbers keep going down for Obama

Honestly, this country doesn't have that good of a memory. Unless the MSM (which I don't watch) is still harping on it and dredging it up in everyone's face everyday. I know the media isn't on his side, for some reason they have chosen Romney now to be their winner. Could it just be the media's influence on the dopes out there?

[geek tragedy]

24. Snowball. Obama became a joke after that debate. SNL, New Yorker cover.

Even the most apolitical people 'know' he was full of fail that night.

[thevoiceofreason]

18. Bitter much?

Get a grip - or go join FR - they'd love your heartfelt story over there.

[MFM008]

19. Obama lost the election with that debate?

whoaaaaa. Slow that chariot down Ben Hur. Lets see what happens tuesday before we cut our wrists.

[andym]

20. It's not Carter/Reagan II as much as Romney or apparently you would like to think so.

You're correct that a major effort of Obama's campaign was to demonize Romney and Obama to a large extent allowed Romney to escape his painting at the first debate. This is very similar to what happened in 1980 to Reagan. However, that does not mean that Romney has completely overcome his well-earned corporate reputation, nor is the economy as weak as it was in 1980 (headed into a recession in 1981-2).

Unlike 1980, there are two more debates and almost a month to go. The shift that occurred appears to be among the ~7% of voters in swing states who said they may change their mind last month. The undecided vote was 5% last month and about 4% now. So everything is still in play.

What the President needs to do is explain what he as done to help the United States, where we are and where we are going. Dare I say he should be optimistic about jobs and the economy growing in the next four years and he will likely win. If he can differentiate his policies from Romney more clearly, that would help. There are many people who would think twice about some of the proposed changes to Medicare and the tax code if they could be made to understand what would really happen.

[meadowlark5]

32. That's what I heard

That during the debate Obama really never laid out his plan for moving ahead where as the shape shifter had his 5 point plan Most of which sounded like Obama's 2 minute ad he was running laying out his 4 point plan. But the liar lied about it during the debate and it sounds good, easy to understand - 5 steps. I heard it was the waitress moms that supposedly moved over to Romney because of that easy to understand 5 point plan that would help them. Yeah right.

[Chan790]

34. You have the be the most pessimistic person alive.

Let's just put it this way...not only has the President not lost the election, there is probably no road to victory actually available to Romney. It's just going to be closer than it was going to be previously.

[ChimpersMcSmirkers]

11. Nate and Intrade are all I look at and it's not a pretty picture.

The massive change after a single debate is really astounding. It seems that there are a lot of people who were looking for just about anything to vote against Obama and they found it.

I do think Obama can get a lot of them back with a strong debate performance in the next one. There won't be a landslide and it's going to be tight no matter what. It's going to come down to OH, IA, VA and NV. I live in VA and I'm not very confident he'll carry it.

The good news is that IA is covered well on the ground and OH isn't collapsing as bad as the rest and I think will hold. NV/CO/VA will be critical.

I'm not saying this to get anyone down. I'm saying this because it's the reality and we need to face it to affect it.

[morningfog]

13. Obama doesn't need NV, CO or VA to win if he holds OH and IA.

[ChimpersMcSmirkers]

31. Ok, well that's a squeaker and I'll take it, but, It suck that VA and CO seem to slipping.

The thing is that if CO and VA are up for grabs, WI is next and Obama doesn't win without that I think. Biden was in WI today.

[andym]

15. Intrade is sensitive to the polls. Bettors place bets based on the best handicapping info they have

Sites like 538 probably influence it a lot. So Intrade is reactive and there is some hysteresis in its numbers.

The good news is that the President is still favored and Romney's bounce should start to recede from the effects of the VP debate combined good economic news (Gallup jobs numbers and consumer confidence).

Just don't look at the numbers until about next Tuesday.

[msongs]

16. maybe one day obama will present a coherent vision for his next term if given one instead of

spending most of the energy attacking romney (which is a good thing to do in its own way)

[meadowlark5]

17. Here's another question about fivethirtyeight

Nate's projections have decreased for Obama because of the polling models he has to plug in. It sounds like he put in that really bad poll in Florida that had Romney 7 points ahead. Even though that poll doesn't seem anywhere in line with all of the other polls, Nate plugs that one in? Of course that one poll would really pull Obama's average down.

I said this on another thread, last election, I didn't really watch polls that close. But it seems that anyone can say, "I think I'll be a pollster" make up a name for their poll and boom, a poll that gets averaged in. I'm not sure if the Florida poll was, but there aren't any national standards for polling - aren't some just crap? Is Nate figuring those in? Is Intrade figuring all polls in as well?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

21. Bush* Sank All The Way To 50% After His First Debate With Kerry

.

[fugop]

23. I love this post!

Thanks for this. Reminders like this improve my outlook greatly!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

26. Sam Wang Has A Site Similar To Nate Silver

www.princetonconsortium.com


I think Bush* was down to 50-50 after his first debate there too...

[gkhouston]

22. Think about how much money the Kochs could sink into Intrade, if they chose. n/t

[fishwax]

25. I find intrade interesting, but not worth getting (too) up or down about

I know people are putting real money on the line, but it doesn't necessarily follow that they'll be right. So I find it interesting, and a nice confirmation when it's going nicely, but I don't get that worked up about it when it dips. (I would think it would have a tendency to overreact to such things as last week's debate, though that's just a hunch and of course i could be wrong.)

[Baitball Blogger]

27. Obama is at 59% chance of winning.

Why does that upset you? Because the numbers were going down?

[geek tragedy]

28. The theory being that a lot of people have been unwilling to consider the possibility

that Obama could lose, and that once they do a fire sale could begin as those holding Obama win contracts look for the exits.

[Baitball Blogger]

29. What are win contracts?

[NJRick1006]

30. 64% this morning

Don't know much about this but this can fluctuate nearly 5% in 12 hours, it appears.

[amborin]

33. it's full of rethugs. ever read its comments section? ignore it.