A thought about polling and cell phones...

[beac]

As I was reading an article about a poll in Massachusetts that specifically mentioned the pollsters called both land lines and cell phones, it occurred to me that I will never be polled about my current home state (MA) because my cell number is a Virginia one (where I lived prior to MA).

I can think of at least five people in my close family who have cell numbers that no longer correspond to the state where they currently live.

With the option to "keep your number" when you change providers, the fact that long distance fees don't come into play with cellphones (and many land lines have unlimited long distance), and more and more people getting cellphones at a younger and younger age, I can see a significant portion of the population having one cell number their whole lives, despite any moves they might make between states over the years.

These people (me included) will be completely left out of state polling (or inaccurately polled about a place they no longer live-- if they decided to participate anyway.)

So, I am curious... How many of you have a cell number with an area code that no longer matches your zip code?

And how do you think this will impact future polling, if at all?

13 votes, 0 passes | Time left: Unlimited
	My cellphone number has an area code that matches the state in which I live.
	7 (54%)
	My cellphone number's area code is from a state where I previously lived.
	5 (38%)
	I don't have a cellphone.
	1 (8%)
	0 DU members did not wish to select any of the options provided.
Show usernames Disclaimer: This is an Internet poll

[NurseJackie]

1. Interesting question. I'll bet that reputable polling organizations already take this into account.

[beac]

2. I would think they would try to confirm that you are resident in the state they are polling you

about, but that still leaves people like me (who would answer "no&quot out of the pool. As it does college students living in other states (although Republicans have done a pretty good job of disenfranchising them as far as being able to vote where they go to school.)

[NurseJackie]

3. I'd imagine that they would. But, I guess the nature of polls is the very reason ...

... that they have "margins of error". For various reasons there will always be a set of individuals who never get polled. (An obvious example: I'm sure that deaf Americans are very rarely able to participate in random telephone polls.)

[beac]

8. True.

And I wonder if that margin grows as the trend away from landlines and to cellphones continues?

[noamnety]

4. My cell phone matches my real area code.

But my daughter got her cell phone while living at home, then kept that number when she moved away for college and permanently out of state. I don't know about out of state moves, but I did find this:

"Around 4 percent of those over the age of 65 will move to a new county, yet approximately 30 percent of those aged 20-29 will move to a new county."

http://www.melissadata.com/enews/articles/0705b/1.htm

[beac]

6. Interesting link.

from article:

Out of a population of 282,556,000 people, 40,093,000 moved. That’s an overall percentage of 14.19 percent annually.

These 40-plus-million people break down as follows:

23,468,000 moved within the same county,
7,728,000 moved to a different county within the same state,
7,628,000 moved to a different state, and
1,269,000 moved to a different country.

So, if their numbers are accurate, that's just under 20% of people who move moving to another state.

And your daughter was just the kind of person I was thinking about in my OP.

[WhaTHellsgoingonhere]

5. Good thinking. I'd like that confirmed but it seems they're getting the polling right

Cell = zip = address = city = state

No landline

[beac]

7. Polling seems to be getting less accurate, IMO.

Then again, polling can influence attitudes and behaviors as much as measure them.

[Buns_of_Fire]

9. Mine matches, but it makes no difference in my case.

A number not on my contacts list doesn't get answered, anyway.

[beac]

10. I think that is true of many cell phone users.

I am beginning to do that because the "DO NOT CALL" list seems to be more violated by the day.

[mmonk]

11. Same here. The only thing political on my phone

has been texts from the Obama administration or Organizing America.

[beac]

13. What? No ENDLESS calls from the DNC?

Lucky you. Try as I might to tell them to ONLY contact me by email, they keep calling.

[Codeine]

14. You're missing all those great solar panel

robo-calls. Fucking asshats.

[beac]

15. I think I'll have my solar panels installed while I am away on my free cruise to the Bahamas!

[bigwillq]

12. Mine matches (nt)

[beac]

16. Thanks for replying.

Love your sig line, by the way.

[Barack_America]

17. Mine does not match, nor do any of my friends that I can think of.

Oh wait, there is one, and some co-workers to, kind of half-and-half with them.

[Barack_America]

18. Regarding impact, fairly significant, I think...

...given the issue will disproportionally affect younger people, who tend to be more mobile.

I really don't put much stock in comparing polls anymore, because of the cell phone issue. It might make some sense to track the same poll overtime, but even that is uncertain.

[beac]

19. I agree that the young and mobile

will be disproportionally underrepresented.

[TBF]

20. Mine matches, but I don't answer if I don't know the number -

so they'd have to text me to get a response.

[noamnety]

21. Good point.

I still have a landline, but don't answer the cell or landline if it's not someone I know.

God, I'm dreading the time frame when we get closer to the elections here. Last time we used up all our possible blocks on the phone.