Democratic Delegate Scorecard for Feb. 23, 2016

[MrWendel]

http://cookpolitical.com/story/9274

By David Wasserman

Now that the primaries are underway, votes and delegates matter more than polls. On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders would need to win 2,382 of Democrats' 4,763 delegates to the Philadelphia convention to clinch the nomination. To help you keep track of who's ahead, the Cook Political Report has devised a delegate scorecard estimating how many delegates Clinton and Sanders would need to win in each primary, caucus, and convention to become the nominee.

In the aftermath of Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada, Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders are technically tied at 51 pledged delegates apiece. But that vastly understates the magnitude of Sanders's challenge between now and June. In fact, if Clinton performs as well on Super Tuesday (March 1) as her polling and results thus far suggest she will do, she could effectively clinch the Democratic nomination race in a week's time.

Unlike on the Republican side, about 15 percent of DNC delegates are unpledged "superdelegates" - a total of 712 elected officials and party leaders - who can support whomever they want at the convention. According to the Associated Press, Clinton currently leads Sanders 449 to 19 among this group, for an overall delegate lead of 500 to 70.

That's a huge head start for Clinton, and it means Sanders would need to win roughly 55 percent of the 4,295 remaining pledged delegates and uncommitted superdelegates to reach a bare majority, while Clinton would only need to win 45 percent. That's an extremely tall order, and so far Sanders hasn't kept pace.


Who's Ahead? Pledged Delegates vs. Cook Targets



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[hoosierlib]

1. Hubris...not a good trait...

[AtomicKitten]

2. The tally is 52-51. Superdelegates weigh in @ convention; they change sides.