2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumTexas Poll--HRC up by 10--huge lead among Latinos and African-Americans
The former secretary of state is leading, with 54 percent, a week before the Texas primary, while Sanders, a U.S. senator from Vermont, has the support of 44 percent of the respondents.
This race is narrowing, but not narrowing in a way for the lines to actually cross especially in Texas, said Jim Henson, director of the Texas Politics Project at UT-Austin and the polls co-director. Clinton will win, he said, but the question mark, is the states Hispanic voters and their relatively low propensity to vote. This will be a double-digit race, but I dont think its going to be a 20-point race.
Clinton has a formidable base of black and Hispanic voters, while Sanders is doing better with Anglos. She leads 70 percent to 27 percent among black voters and 60 percent to 37 percent among Hispanic voters. Sanders, meanwhile, has the support of 55 percent of white voters to Clintons 44 percent. Clintons advantage, the pollsters said, could swell if her campaign can boost the numbers of Hispanics voting in the state.
http://www.texastribune.org/2016/02/23/uttt-poll-clinton-still-leads-texas-margin-has-nar/
VulgarPoet
(2,872 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)Armstead
(47,803 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)Dixie will be a sea of blue!
HereSince1628
(36,063 posts)Texas is the big prize and the super-Tuesday results will bend strongly toward that outcome.
Coming across the droughts of early March, Sanders' campaign has to look to later contests for rain when the demographics are more favorable for him.
VulgarPoet
(2,872 posts)I just can't fathom how she has as much PoC support considering her and her husband's voting records, man.
Liberal_Stalwart71
(20,450 posts)the Clintons. I don't think it is because they like the Clintons; I think it is because they're voting strategically. This is what Sanders's supporters cannot grasp.
Kentonio
(4,377 posts)If people come out and vote, then he wins. Simple as that.
Liberal_Stalwart71
(20,450 posts)Bernie to Obama, but there's a HUGE difference. Bernie has major crowds coming to hear him speak, right? Unprecedented crowds, even, right? Sure. So why haven't those crowds translated into higher turnout? When Obama was running in the primaries, he also had major crowds which he capitalized on and those crowds ran up turnout.
So we can safely assume that neither Bernie nor Hillary Clinton are generating enough enthusiasm right now. Perhaps that'll change come the GE, but I'm really afraid that if Bernie is going to do well, he can't just rely on his events; those events have to translate into higher turnout for him.
We'll see how things go in SC and next Tuesday, but it doesn't look good.
And I've maintained all along that if things do not change, we will have a Republican president. I don't think either Democrat can beat the Rethugs, but apparently, more POC believe that HRC is the candidate who has a better chance.
Kentonio
(4,377 posts)He got more votes than any Democrat OR Republican in history. He will lose SC and fall behind in Super Tuesday, but then the states ahead are considerably more favorable to him. Ignore the super-delegates (like everyone should be doing at this point) and you see a race that's considerably different to the 'His campaign lost the race after Nevada' narrative that's going around this week.
Liberal_Stalwart71
(20,450 posts)It seems that this point is very difficult for Bernie Sanders's supporters to accept.
The Democratic Party is very diverse! That is the beauty of our party.
Bernie Sanders has to prove that he can excite more than just white people. Frankly I had to say it.
Perhaps Bernie Sanders does have a better chance of winning against any Republican. But I can't see it because turnout is so low generally. He has to do more to prove that he can win.
Note: Yes, turnout was high in NH as we expect it to be because IA and NH are the first caucus/primary states. Typically turnout is high--these tend to be politically active primary voters. Still, the gap in turnout between Democrats and Republicans was large. Republicans are more enthusiastic for their candidates.
Kentonio
(4,377 posts)But its worth noting that the Hispanic vote is MUCH closer than the AA split. I haven't seen the numbers for the Asian and NA communities yet, but its definitely not the case that he's only appealing to whites.
I agree about the overall turnout by the way, but I think if the party gets behind Bernie and stops trying to stifle the massive momentum he's been building, then we go into the general with a positive message and a lot of hope. Imagine a scenario where the message from ALL Democrats is that a President Sanders would be good for the country.
Liberal_Stalwart71
(20,450 posts)I have always argued that shoving Hillary Clinton down our collective throats would prove disastrous. Doing so ran off other strong candidates who are far more likeable and just as capable. But the establishment would not take no for an answer. For some reason, the party feels that it owes the Clintons, and perhaps that's a good point. Remember: most of the present crop of Democrats came to power in 1992, many of them seem to ride the Clinton coattails. So perhaps the establishment feels indebted to the Clintons. I'm not sure what's going on here.
As for Sanders, he's going to have to work harder for the Latino vote. If he can siphon off enough black voters, that'll help him. He doesn't have to capture the entire black electorate, but he has to get a sizeable proportion of that vote.
How Obama won it--a coalition of white liberals, blacks, Latinos, Asian Americans, and so forth. He was never going to win a majority of white voters. That was clear. Bernie has to strive for the same, since he does appear to have a sizeable proportion of white Democrats; he now needs a fair number of blacks and good proportion of Latinos.
We'll see what happens on Super Tuesday. That turnout is down on the Democratic side is not good for either Democratic Party candidate.
AtomicKitten
(46,585 posts)Last edited Tue Feb 23, 2016, 04:05 PM - Edit history (1)
From my original post: http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=1309865
Since you probably won't watch the video below, let me break it down for you. According to the most recent Quinnipiac poll:
HEAD-TO-HEAD MATCHUPS:
Against Trump:
Hillary 44, Trump 43
Bernie 48, Trump 42
Against Cruz:
Hillary 43, Cruz 46
Bernie 49, Cruz 39
Against Rubio:
Hillary 41, Rubio 48
Bernie 47, Rubio 41
Against Kasich:
Hillary 39, Kasich 47
Bernie 45, Kasich 41
Against Jebra (who has since dropped out)
Hillary 43, Jebra 44
Bernie 49, Jebra 39
FAVORABILITY:
Bernie +15 (he is the only candidate on either side above water).
Hillary -21 (she has worst rating of both parties).
Liberal_Stalwart71
(20,450 posts)basis. Right now, macro polls do not matter.
We go to SC on Saturday where HRC is expected to win handily.
We get to next Tuesday, which is Super Tuesday, and the math isn't bad for Sanders, but also isn't great for him.
Macro polls mean shit to me right now because they can change on a daily basis.
Rather than talking down to POC, try to win them over. Stop being so rude; it's not helping your candidate at all.
AtomicKitten
(46,585 posts)Liberal_Stalwart71
(20,450 posts)Liberal_Stalwart71
(20,450 posts)You can post shit to me all day if you want. I will neither read nor care what you post.
AtomicKitten
(46,585 posts)I remember when you used to be a nice, reasonable person. Now your posts reek of anger and hostility. I have simply posted FACTS with virtually no commentary. Dispute the facts if you like, but your personal attacks on me are entirely out of line.
Liberal_Stalwart71
(20,450 posts)Primaries are fought on a state-by-state basis. Therefore, your "facts" are inconsequential.
okasha
(11,573 posts)We do like the Clintons and we're voting strategically.
hoosierlib
(710 posts)From down 40 to down 10...betting HRC and her surrogates will be making some stops in Texas in the coming days...
DCBob
(24,689 posts)Bernie only hope is to get 100% of the white vote.
hoosierlib
(710 posts)And will keep getting tighter as we approach 03/01...
okasha
(11,573 posts)Sanders has had exactly no presence in S Tx or on the Border. The Clintons have long-standing ties and respect here, and that is signifincant.
Meanwhile Susan Sarandon has damaged Sanders badly with Hispanics. As in South Carolina, where he created a disaster for himself at a church dinner, Sanders has had only minor interactions with POC, and it shows.
Liberal_Stalwart71
(20,450 posts)riversedge
(70,197 posts)DCBob
(24,689 posts)I suspect she will campaign with Julian Castro as it gets closer to primary day there.
Liberal_Stalwart71
(20,450 posts)Julián Castro could be VP next year or out of a job. Hes ready either way.
By Ben Terris February 23 at 1:12 PM
[img][/img]
Julián Castro cut into his overcooked brisket, dumped four artificial sweeteners into his iced tea and shifted in his seat. Its not that he didnt want to answer the question, its just that he couldnt.
Sure, hes thought about the possibility of being picked as Hillary Clintons running mate on the Democratic ticket. How could he not? What with the Ready for Julián? and Castro is in VP Training Camp headlines percolating out of the political press. Even Stephen Colbert tried to trick the 41-year-old secretary of housing and urban development into saying he wanted to be vice president in a recent late-night appearance.
And its not that hes ashamed of his ambition. You dont run for mayor of San Antonio at 30 or become the youngest member of President Obamas Cabinet without having a healthy ego. But running for vice president, if its even possible for someone to run, is different. If Castro dares show too much interest, he looks desperate and his chances evaporate. Looking uninterested, however, is also not an option.
What makes this different is that this position isnt really yours to talk about, Castro finally said, slipping into second-person. Its not my decision; its nobodys to claim.
There is perhaps no better and no worse time to be Julián Castro. Hes an exciting, fast-rising Latino politician, coming of age politically just as the Democrats need him most. He will certainly at least make Clintons short¬list as a running mate. But what if she doesnt pick him? What if shes not even the nominee? He comes from Texas, a conservative-leaning state that is years away from electing a Democrat statewide. Maybe theres another Cabinet position for him in the future, but the Cabinet was never his real goal. He could always retreat into the private sector, but that could squelch the momentum of a young man with ambitions still burning.
This time I dont know what I would do next, he said. So why does Castro, on the cusp of going boom or going bust, seem so calm? It helps to know how the game is played. And it helps to have failed before.
Long before Castro was in the mix to become the second-most powerful person in America, he was a punch line, embarrassed by a Texas riverboat parade.
It was April 2005, the day of an annual floating extravaganza along the San Antonio River, and Castros big commitment for the evening was to ride a barge with his fellow city councilmen.
And there he stood or so it seemed waving to a quarter-million cheering constituents from the front of the boat, a leading mayoral candidate with a big grin and an even bigger future. The only problem.?.?.
I remember watching the parade from home and saying to my wife, Thats not Julián, thats his twin brother Joaquin,? said Christian Archer, who at the time ran the mayoral campaign of Juliáns opponent. Sure enough, moments later Archers communication director called: He was at a town hall across town, and Julián was there, too.
Archers candidate, Phil Hardberger, a 71-year-old former judge, had been trying to paint the 30-year-old Castro as too young and callow to lead the city. These kind of Parent Trap shenanigans could help make his case.
If youre 18 years old and having a date, it might be a youthful prank when you swap out your brother, Hardberger told reporters shortly after word got out about the incident that would be dubbed Twinsgate. But when youre running for mayor of a city with 1.3 million people and sending in your brother as an impersonator, I do see a problem with it.
More at the link....
CajunBlazer
(5,648 posts)Clinton 57 Sanders 34 Clinton +23
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/March2016PrimariesPollingProject.pdf
Nate Silvers give Hillary a 97% chance of winning Texas
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/texas-democratic/
morningfog
(18,115 posts)Keep on keeping on!
CajunBlazer
(5,648 posts)morningfog
(18,115 posts)CajunBlazer
(5,648 posts)Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)Seems like I recall Clinton saying we should discount her 22% ass-kicking in New Hampshire because it shared a border with Vermont.
Presumably, if Hillary does not win Texas by at least 22%, she's under-performing.
CajunBlazer
(5,648 posts)South Carolina and proceeding through the First of March.
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)well when the primary turns away from Dixie on March 22 through April 9.
Response to Attorney in Texas (Reply #39)
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