2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumWorking the Refs, Not Debate, is Responsible for Romney's "Bounce"
.........SNIP............. Last week, we talked a little bit about the Right's attempt to play the refs by complaining that pollsters were polling too many Democrats - where in fact, the numbers were justified by both the Democrats' registration advantage and last presidential election's voting patterns. So what did our national media and pollsters do? They quickly groveled at the feet of the loud screeching noise-makers, of course.
Today, for example, there is a Pew poll out showing Mitt Romney has taken a lead in national polling of likely voters, 49-45, a full 11-point swing since the same poll from two weeks ago. Did the debate make all the difference? Don't be silly. Here's what really happened: Pew polled fewer voters altogether, and, they acquiesced to the wingnut browbeating and entirely took away the Democratic registration advantage documented in actual voting in 2008, registration data, and well, their own previous polling. Here, in a nutshell, is what really happened:
So Pew basically swung their sample by 7 points in favor of Republicans and 8 points in favor of conservatives, and declared, "Romneys Strong Debate Performance Erases Obamas Lead." In fact, the wingnuts are bragging that their tactic of working the refs is working. Well, they are right about that one thing. When a respectable organization like Pew is playing to the tune of right wing propaganda and being played like fools, that indeed is a success of the propaganda machine.
I have no idea whether Pew's numbers are just an aberration in their sampling or deliberately designed to fit the GOP's howling narrative. But when it happens right after the howling crowd starts moaning, I have my suspicions. Of course, this is also in the interest of the national media. It helps them tell the story of Romney's "comeback," even if working the refs is primarily responsible for said "comeback." Goes pretty well together with their mendacity to declare the biggest liar the "winner" of the presidential debate. ..........SNIP............ http://www.thepeoplesview.net/2012/10/working-refs-not-debate-is-responsible.html
allrevvedup
(408 posts)Come on folks, these polls are full of fail, especially Pew's. Yes they are normally credible, no they are not remotely credible this time. How Pew president Andy Kohut could say with a straight face on NPR last week that Obama's support is collapsing among women I don't know, but I assume chits were called in, payola was paid or maybe just threats were made. Who really cares.
I saw the debate too, and when tee-vee pundits start admitting that Romney a) cheated every which way, b) mercilessly bulled the 83-year old moderator to get all his whoppers in, c) generally behaved like Regan in the Exorcist and d) lost the debate roundly, I might start start giving a fig what they say ad think. Meanwhile last week is already dust in the wind, as significant as Biden's last gaffe which is to say not at all, and the fair weather friends running around dispensing bad advice need to chill.