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Vietnameravet

(1,085 posts)
Wed Oct 10, 2012, 12:45 PM Oct 2012

Romney got a bounce but its fading..

The most important question is whether that big bump for Romney will persist or begin to fade. Nearly all of the polls released on Tuesday included interviews conducted over the three-day period, from Thursday to Saturday last week, when Romney's standing was clearly strongest. But two of the new national surveys reported that the pro-Romney trend had cooled in interviews they conducted subsequently on Sunday and Monday.

Gallup, which this week started publishing results among likely voters, reported that among the larger pool of all registered voters, Romney surged to a 47 percent tie with Obama in interviews conducted from Thursday to Saturday, but faded to a five point deficit to Obama (45 to 50 percent) in interviews conducted on Sunday and Monday nights. "Although these two days of interviewing involve relatively small sample sizes," Gallup cautioned, "they suggest that Romney's debate 'bounce' may be fading."

Separately, a new ABC News/Washington Post poll. which asked about candidate favorable ratings but did not include a vote preference question, showed a "sizable boost for Romney, and drop for Obama, on Thursday night, a day after their first debate." However, "both of those trends subsequently subsided" in the interviews conducted from Friday through Sunday, leaving only a "slight" net effect on the candidate ratings.

The other ray of hope for Democrats came from Ohio, where the average of three new surveys released on Tuesday, all conducted from Friday through Monday, indicated a much closer race but continued to show Obama with a narrow lead.


http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/10/10/presidential-polls-2012_n_1953910.html

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Romney got a bounce but its fading.. (Original Post) Vietnameravet Oct 2012 OP
I hope so, but we should probably wait to hear from Nate Silver TroyD Oct 2012 #1

TroyD

(4,551 posts)
1. I hope so, but we should probably wait to hear from Nate Silver
Wed Oct 10, 2012, 12:47 PM
Oct 2012

And more evidence from additional polls before assuming we are out of the woods.

A week ago we assumed we had this in the bag, and look what happened.

We don't want to be pessimistic obviously, but we don't want to be overconfident either.

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