Nate Silver turns North Carolina to likely Romney based on Gravis Marketing +9

[grantcart]

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/author/nate-silver

Not having an effect? Gravis Marketing is turning neutral states into red, pretty good for an unemploye DeVry graduate.

Nate Silver is giving Gravis Marketing the HIGHEST WEIGHT POSSIBLE, even outdoing Rasmussen.


Garbage in/ Garbage out Mr. Silver


Polls 538 WT. Date Dem Rep Margin



Gravis Marketing 10/8 41.2 49.9 Romney +8.7 (4 Bar weight to Gravis Marketing

Rasmussen 10/2 47.0 50.0 Romney +3.0

SurveyUSA 10/1 49.0 47.0 Obama +2.0

PPP 9/30 48.0 48.0 Tie

[helpisontheway]

1. Nate will have the race 50/50 before the weekend at this rate

Regardless of what the Obama campaign says they have lost their lead in most of the swing states.

[fugop]

2. Seriously?

These freaking GOP newbie pollsters are shit, and it really makes me question Nate when he lets them skew the narrative with their crap polls.

[Dawgs]

3. Why are you surprised? Nate is part of the media now, and this is when his site gets the most hits.

By far.

[torotoro]

5. You know, he could be right

Unless you think Obama's lackluster performance at the debate was descent; where most came away thinking mistakenly that Romney was the liberal populist for the working class. This presidency is Obama's to lose. In that first debate he pretty much gave Romney a free lunch. There will be less people watching the 2nd debate but he must make his case by actually you know calling Mitt out on his lies, or the people will continue to think Obama wants to gut their medicare, etc.

[TroyD]

6. I think that's unfair

While I agree with you that Nate should not include a discredited pollster like Gravis in his sample, he is just doing his job and pointing out the truth - the race is now a lot closer than it was last week. he's not making that up. The polls show it. Obama knows it too.

Let's not attack Nate for things that are not his fault. He had nothing to do with the debate performance last week.

Btw, I notice online this morning that Breitbart has an article out accusing Nate Silver of being an Obama Apologist or something like that because he still shows Obama ahead 70/30.

So look at it from Nate's point of view.

[fugop]

8. Nope

By reporting unreliable polls as if they're just as good as dependable ones, Nate is NOT doing his job. It's right up there with so-called journalists saying, "Democrats SAY Romney is lying" when they know for a fact that he is. It's irresponsible and it contributes to the atmosphere that rewards a liar a win in a debate because he lied PASSIONATELY while the truth-teller was laidback. It's bullshit, and all of those who perpetuate that atmosphere should be ashamed!

[alcibiades_mystery]

14. "should not include a discredited pollster like Gravis in his sample"

Glad to see you've come around...

[torotoro]

4. Funny that we Democrats act all Republican when things dont favor our side. Lets Not devolve

Facts are facts. The Obama team brought this onto themselves and this slide was expected to happen.
The only hope now is they will actually fight back and not do what democrats like to do naturally: Run away scared or appease repubz

Honestly i dont really care if Obama loses as i do if Elizabeth Warren loses since she is a real liberal who deserves my vote.....watch her debate tonight..its streaming live on CSpan and a host of other live links i posted here. So i am casting my vote for Liz this november and because Obama happens to be on my ballot i will cast my vote for him too.

[budkin]

24. Agreed. Don't blame the polls... blame Obama for his disastrous performance

Now it's time to get the lead back.

[WI_DEM]

7. Of course it's only us political junkies who pay attention to Silver

and RCP,etc. If the campaigns and reputable pollsters find NC is still close then the campaign will continue there. I know Obama is still going to work hard at early voting particularly of African Americans in NC.

[Mass]

9. This is the only after debate poll. This is why.

If we get other polls showing differently, he will change that, but he cannot invent data point and his business is dealing with polls. He does with what he has.

[magical thyme]

10. We love Nate Silver until we don't?

It was a poor debate. We wen't into it with a huge tide swelling in our favor. Romney set out to turn the tide. He failed at that, but he did stem the tide.

And Romney's failure was at least as much due to the good jobs and deficit numbers on Friday as to the President's refusal to take his bait so he could bring out his "zingers." But President O either didn't rebut lies or, when he did, didn't do so forcefully enough. Had he simply stuck to forcefully rebutting lies about his own record he'd be in much, much better shape today.

We'd better pray for more good headlines like the jobs numbers for the next few weeks and a very different debate than the last one. It was our *landslide* to lose. Now it's our election to lose.

[helpisontheway]

12. He did turn the tide...Obama is either losing or barely leading in most of the swing states.nt

[magical thyme]

21. based on which poll? nt

[Drunken Irishman]

29. Wasn't Obama losing or barely leading in most swing states?

His margins have always been close in a great deal of swing states.

[alcibiades_mystery]

16. Gravis Marketing is not a real polling outfit

We happen to have more information than Mr. Silver on this point, or he is at least ignoring the clear indications that this outfit is in fact made up of a pack of hucksters. There's a difference between an R leaning poll and an outright fraud.

[grantcart]

20. Mr. Silver just turned North Carolina red on the basis of a pollster that last year was an unemploye

DeVry graduate with no polling or academic background.

Do me a favor and answer one question.

When was Gravis Marketing's first poll? I went back 50 pages of Google on 2011 Gravis Marketing and can't find anything before July.

Why is Nate giving more weight to Gravis Marketing who is listed as having two employees and no history of polling more than 100 days ago than even Rasmussen who he weights with only 3 bars.

Either Nate has a really good answer or he has gotten sloppy.

If you are still not convinced go back to the earlier thread and listen to Gravis Marketing CEO and only identifiable public employee Doug Kaplan try to explain to a Russian radio program the importance of South Carolina. This national pollster seems to be unaware thata SC wass a winner take all primary history in a front loaded Republican system and there was a signficant change with the rules change. He does note that it is 'in the South' and 'is a conservative state'.



Here is Doug Kaplan's portfolio before Gravis;

http://www.site.dougkaplan.net/Home.html


Here is his personal mission statement:

http://www.site.dougkaplan.net/Doug_Kaplan.html

Doug Kaplan was Born in Brooklyn, New York, I grew up as the middle child of seven siblings. Early on, I developed a love of project development. By the age of 14, I had read several books . It was at this time that I knew what I wanted to do with my life. Upon graduating from high school, I entered Valencia and Devry University, I quickly found work developing my first project for Discovery Marketing. I learned a lot with the company, as I was responsible for their first national campaign. The most important lesson I learned was the importance of pushing the envelope and not being afraid to take risks. My technique has continued to evolve to the present day.

I am currently a freelance professional, working from my private office in Orlando I enjoy meeting other professionals and following the latest trends. I enjoy attending conferences and symposiums, as well as adding more books to my reading list. Although I am highly sought after, I am always open to new projects. No job is too big or too small. Call me today at 407-242-1870.

Nate has given this guy his highest ranking, heaviest weighting.

With a +9 in North Carolina he is turning all of the projection maps from neutral to red.

How do you think that is going to effect Romney fund raising?

There is a lot lot more about Kaplan that is coming out. Stay tuned.

[magical thyme]

22. thank you for the expose. Now can you show where Nate make the change based on Gravis?

Because I didn't see anything about it when I was in his blog earlier this morning...

I may well have missed it, but a direct link to it would be helpful to all.

[grantcart]

27. ansering from my phone so limited what I can do

Bettervif I explain.

Go to 538

Go to North Carolina

He shows the polls and hass a bar chart displaying degree of weight.

Graves marketing has highest 4 bar wt.

Ras only has 3 or 2?

Because the other polls show basically tied Gravis +9 is going to have the greatest weight and is the deciding factor.

[magical thyme]

32. got it. thanks!

I'm on dialup so my searching for stuff is excrutiatingly slow...!

[Panasonic]

11. Did you send your expose on Gravis Marketing to Nate, grantcart?

If not, you should do so, immediately.

Hope your move was good....

Who's your rep? Gabby or Raul?

[grantcart]

19. I am in the middle of a move and don't have internet yet. Posting this off my phone's hotspot,

but T Mobile is slowing me doooooooooooooooooown.

Have appointments today, won't be back til late tonight.

If you could send that thread and this to Nate Silver it would be appreciated. I have heard that others at the NYT are being approached on it.

[ProSense]

13. Here's what I don't get

Gravis is garbage, but if the excuse is that he doesn't want to appear to be dismissive of polls because of the RW, then he's not being consistent.

He dismissed the IBD/TPP survey in 2010.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021501512

This is the state of politics. Republicans and their allies have turned the process into a farce.

[former9thward]

26. Maybe you should go into the polling business.

You are clearly much better at than Silver. Your 2010 link goes to a survey of doctors who claimed they would leave the profession if health reform passed. Whether that one survey was valid or not has nothing to do with a political poll which asks which candidate you favor. Whatever reason Silver had in dismissing the doctor's poll has nothing to do with the current polling. Silver was being praised by posters a week ago and now because they see some results they don't like they are assassinating his character. Do you think no one sees through that?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

15. He Weights The Polls Based On Their Historical Accuracy

Since Gravis has no history it's given very little weight.

[grantcart]

18. Not true. He gives Gravis Marketing the full four bars in North Carolina. Check the link

As for the national weighting, who cares, it has little impact on Nate's Electoral College.

Nate turned NC red solely on Ras and GM. Since Gravis had a whopping +9 advantage to Romney it will be worth 10 PPP or non partisan polls that show an even race.

[berni_mccoy]

17. Wow, this is not like Nate. Wonder what is going on...

[Tom Rinaldo]

23. K&R Poll manipulation is a midwife to election fraud (and minimally distorts news narratives) n/t

[Raine1967]

25. Nate also uses We ask America, and that is a fraudulent polling group as well, and it IS a problem.

I Posted an OP here on DU after writing on my blog about what I found.

I am disturbed that Nate and others are using these polling outlets. I respect him. These firms are fronts for groups that have an agenda and they are skewing the numbers. THAT gives people like Nate Silver a problem, IMO, as a statistician.

This is important stuff.

[flamingdem]

28. Somebody tell Nate not to shape the narrative with the tools of right wing coupsters nt

[mnhtnbb]

30. Fuck Nate Silver. Tell him this NC resident said so.

[Denzil_DC]

31. Nate Silver needs to get a grip or he's going to lose all credibility

Sam Wang knows full well Gravis is a fraud and has challenged him to prove his bona fides. Nate has no excuse. Very sad.