Hillary Clinton has a greater than 99% chance of winning the South Carolina primary.

[workinclasszero]

2016 Primary Forecasts
The odds and polls for presidential primaries and caucuses, updated daily.

See also: How this works | National polls | Endorsements | Pollster ratings

UPDATED 10:10 PM EST | FEB 20, 2016

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/south-carolina-democratic/

[Renew Deal]

1. The primary will be effectively over after March 1 if nothing changes.

[workinclasszero]

4. Yup

After her best victory yet in Nevada and the coming wipeout of Bernie in SC, super tuesday will finish off the so-called Bernie "revolution" lol

[Hiraeth]

25. lol ...

that you laugh at the goals Bernie wants to accomplish ... funny ... lol ... I personally find addressing climate change hilarious. lol

[turbinetree]

29. I find your words that you just wrote quite repulsive..................................

Honk-----------------for a political revolution Bernie

[workinclasszero]

30. OK

[Bleacher Creature]

49. The Chicago Cubs are the favorites in the NL Central.

If stating the actual odds are considered "repulsive," I'm happy to join you in the club!

[warrprayer]

36. See ya

[Joe the Revelator]

56. Good luck in the GE without the so called 'revolution'

[ladjf]

2. Once again, South Carolina leads the Country in bad political decisions. nt

[book_worm]

8. Hmm, it gave Obama a big victory in his 2008 campaign against Hillary.

[wyldwolf]

46. Many Bernie followers think Obama was a bad political decision

[ucrdem]

3. The end cannot come soon enough.

Every day is a trainwreck and the contributions going to Sanders are not coming back.

[workinclasszero]

5. Its nuts that Bernie would waste one cent in South Carolina

Its a guaranteed loss for him but the true believers still throw money at him so I guess he doesn't mind wasting it.

His campaign staff are a bunch of idiots though.

[turbinetree]

32. Really..................................

is that all you can do is throw insults saying that a staff working for someone is a bunch of idiots

Do you think that you might be speaking with some one that is a volunteer

Honk-------------------for a political revolution Bernie

[workinclasszero]

34. He is wasting time and money on a sure loss

Buy hey, don't let me get in the way of Bernie's glorious revolutionary army.

Bern all the cash you got on lost causes guys! It works for me.

[turbinetree]

58. Self Interests..................................at the 1:15---------------says it all .............

And for the record------------------this fact.....................

Hillary Clinton:

http://ontheissues.org/hillary_clinton.htm

Bernie Sanders:

http://senate.ontheissues.org/Senate/Bernie_Sanders_SenateMatch.htm

http://www.ontheissues.org/House/Bernie_Sanders.htm



I am not wasting my money, at least I know my interests are trying to be protected and its pretty transparent

http://www.quotationspage.com/quote/2989.html


We will see in November, "Who's Interests" are being protected-------------------its pretty much out there, its just on who is put in the cabinet------------------that will say it all



Honk---------------------for a political revolution Bernie 2016

It is about getting a "Progressive President", U.S. Supreme Court, Congress, and State and Local Legislatures

Democracy begins with you------------------------tag your it ---------------------Hartmann / Sanders

Democracy is not a spectator sport--------------get involved ---------------------Hartmann

[bravenak]

6. I do not see how he has any chance there with his horrible poll numbers wuth AA voters.

[workinclasszero]

7. Its a sure loss

He should write it off as a loss right now and go to other states where he might have a shot but hes got money to burn so hes doing it.

[bravenak]

9. I would just skip that state and spend my money where it counts

He lost the black vote way worse than I expected in NV. After this thing here with the shouting at a hispanic Civil rights hero, that might have a negative effect on that group as well. I believe what was done to John Lewis is having an effect on the black vote.

[workinclasszero]

15. I have the uttermost contempt for anyone

That dares to say one bad word about John Lewis. The man bled for civil rights.

The vicious attacks against Dolores Huerta the hispanic union organizer are sickening as well.

How in the world can Bernie's followers attack these icons?

They did a hell of a lot more to free people than talk shit about it!!

[bravenak]

21. Its insane

[workinclasszero]

24. Its desperate

and stinks of flop sweat.

I cant wait for SC and then Super Tuesday.

[bravenak]

28. I'm ready

This needs to ends

[NurseJackie]

10. Bernie blew it! Many missed opportunities ...

... oh well.

[bravenak]

11. It was bad.

[bravenak]

41. .

YES. We are

[Waiting For Everyman]

12. What's her chance of winning it in the General?

Zip to none. Same for the rest of the South.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

13. VA, NC, and FL are in the south and those states are in reach./nt

[Waiting For Everyman]

16. What about South Carolina?

And the other red states you know good and well she'll lose. The fact that she's doing well in them in the primary is hollow.

I wouldn't be so sure she'd win the states you mention either.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

17. She has won in 08 and will win in 016 many states we need in the general.

To your question, much of the south is out of the reach for any Democratic candidate in the general.

[Waiting For Everyman]

22. "out of reach for any Democratic candidate in the general"

Yes, thank you. That's what I said.

The delegate count right now is even. HRC will win some southern states' delegates and Bernie will probably win some others. But the fact that won't go away is, HRC gets beaten by any Repub in the latest national polls. Bernie on the other hand, beats any Repub.

The electability issue goes to Bernie (if that matters at all). Latest poll, TYT:

[DemocratSinceBirth]

23. "The electability issue goes to Bernie (if that matters at all). Latest poll, TYT: "

The peer reviewed research suggests asking voters who they think will win is the best predictor of electoral success, ergo:

Simple surveys that ask people who they expect to win are among the most
accurate methods for forecasting U.S. presidential elections

https://forecasters.org/wp-content/uploads/gravity_forms/7-2a51b93047891f1ec3608bdbd77ca58d/2013/07/Graefe_vote_expectations_ISF.pdf

[div class="excerpt]

.

Hillary Clinton is a 10/11 favorite at the offshore betting sites and the VT senator is a 7-1 underdog


http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2016/winner


If you bet on Hillary you have to put up $1,100 to win $1,000.00

If you bet on Bernie you have to put up $145.00 to win $1,000.00.



The efficacy of polls nine months out in predicting a general election winner is essentially null. I will go with peer reviewed research. I will let others go with the musings of value laden political pundits.

[nc4bo]

31. In GE, NC came out for Obama. 4 years later......not so much.

But the teabaggers certainly did, in herds.

If there's no enthusiasm for folks to vote, count NC over and out.

GOTV for Dems sucked during mid-terms and in walked our 100% teabagger administration.

If something doesn't change, there will be low turnout for the primaries too, I suspect.

Just my opinion. ...probably doesnt mean much.

[Hiraeth]

26. She will lose to Trump.

Melania will be our First Lady.

[pandr32]

44. Here's the thing

Once Hillary Clinton secures the Democrat nomination than Bernie Sanders' campaign--his ground game, social media, supporters, and his staff and himself--should all campaign hard to elect the nominee, Hillary Clinton. It would help, of course, if they/you all quit mischaracterizing her with right-wing-style smears meant to harm her chances.
In the end a Democrat wins and Bill will be our First Gentleman.

[Hiraeth]

47. gross. Bill a gentleman?! Republican WOMEN will NOT have that. Don't you understand.

[pandr32]

52. Why not and how would you know?

Bill Clinton still has quite a bit of support in the Southern States.

[LovingA2andMI]

40. ZERO....

So the temporary victory will be a peril victory. But it is really not a victory at all until Super Tuesday -- which will likely change these smiles into frowns - big time.

[book_worm]

14. This is why in his concession speech last night he ignored SC and focused on "Super Tuesday"

Where he hopes to win predominately white states like Massachusetts and Minnesota. Oh, and his homestate of Vermont.

[madokie]

19. I think once we're past SC

its katybar the door for Hillary. Bernie will be all in from that point onward. The fact that he almost won Nevada says a lot about his electability. A month ago he was down 30 or so points there and hill needing some shenanigans to eck out a win says a lot.

[Armstead]

18. Your're right and 0 Percent chance of winning the General in that state

[Hiraeth]

27. yep

and with that, I am trashing this thread.

[oasis]

20. Will someone please press the fast forward button to the GE?

I'm ready to get to work.

[RufusTFirefly]

50. Yes! Enough of this pesky "democracy" stuff

We know we have the right candidate. Why do we have to wait while the voters decide?

Didn't anyone tell them that it's her turn?

Sheesh!

[oasis]

51. Okay, but please don't holler when Hillary steps up her

"No more kid gloves" campaign.

[secondwind]

33. All I see is that Hillary's trajectory is constantly going downward, while Bernie's keeps going up.

[jonjon]

59. Yep here it is!

http://graphics.wsj.com/elections/2016/polls/?embed=1&chart=chart-democrat-overall

[Cryptoad]

35. Bern can go back to being

Ole Bernie Who by Super Tuesday.

[Gore1FL]

37. That's probably true

What will be interesting is by how much.

[Robbins]

38. Jesus tell us something we don't know

even before we knew the caucus states were fixed for clinton we knew she would win SC.

enjoy it while you can.come november republicans will be laughing at you when trump wins.

[DCBob]

42. With Hillary's big win in NV last night SC is going to be a blowout.

Cant wait!

[workinclasszero]

43. Huge blowout!

Cant wait!

[firebrand80]

54. Yuge nt

[eggplant]

45. Wow. How many of you will eat crow if Hillary *doesn't* mop the floor with Bernie in SC?

He seems to be kicking her ass in the popular vote 60-40 so far. And for an insurgent running without any support of the national party, he's only down *one* pledged delegate after three states.

Looking at a crystal ball is fun and all, but actual results matter more. Nevada was supposed to be a blowout for Hillary, right?

[workinclasszero]

48. I'm not eating crow if Hillary wins by one vote.

A wins a win afterall.

I do think SC will be a big win for Hillary though.

Just my opinion.

[eilen]

53. It's ironic that SC, a state that has a snowball's chance in hell to

go to the Democrat in the General Election is seen as the linchpin.

[NurseJackie]

55. Conversely, Bernie has a less-than-1% chance of winning. I can't decide ...

... which one I like the sound of better.

[Vinca]

57. I agree. It's going to be a cake walk for Hillary in SC.

For the life of me I don't understand the AA backing for this woman. Guess if she's elected they'll get the lower wage they seem to want and the huge college debt. Enjoy.

[jonjon]

60. As well as being totally meaningless...

Because of this:

http://graphics.wsj.com/elections/2016/polls/?embed=1&chart=chart-democrat-overall