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Mon Oct 8, 2012, 04:10 PM

Pew a 9pt swing to Romney up 49-45

Ouch! Reagan type swing!

39 replies, 4406 views

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Reply Pew a 9pt swing to Romney up 49-45 (Original post)
Cattledog Oct 2012 OP
Comrade_McKenzie Oct 2012 #1
Blue Owl Oct 2012 #2
vi5 Oct 2012 #3
applegrove Oct 2012 #39
FrenchieCat Oct 2012 #4
Care Acutely Oct 2012 #25
djean111 Oct 2012 #30
hrmjustin Oct 2012 #5
budkin Oct 2012 #6
Liberal_Stalwart71 Oct 2012 #7
TexasCPA Oct 2012 #8
woolldog Oct 2012 #10
progressivebydesign Oct 2012 #31
CitizenPatriot Oct 2012 #9
Lone_Star_Dem Oct 2012 #11
andym Oct 2012 #12
woolldog Oct 2012 #13
WI_DEM Oct 2012 #14
WallaceRitchie Oct 2012 #15
fugop Oct 2012 #16
woolldog Oct 2012 #17
WallaceRitchie Oct 2012 #19
fugop Oct 2012 #20
woolldog Oct 2012 #24
progressivebydesign Oct 2012 #32
VirginiaTarheel Oct 2012 #18
fugop Oct 2012 #21
RBInMaine Oct 2012 #22
tarheelsunc Oct 2012 #23
RBInMaine Oct 2012 #26
FrenchieCat Oct 2012 #29
tarheelsunc Oct 2012 #36
FrenchieCat Oct 2012 #37
tarheelsunc Oct 2012 #38
progressivebydesign Oct 2012 #33
FrenchieCat Oct 2012 #34
tarheelsunc Oct 2012 #35
elleng Oct 2012 #27
Blue Yorker Oct 2012 #28

Response to Cattledog (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 04:11 PM

1. ...

 

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Response to Cattledog (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 04:12 PM

2. Peeeeee-eeew, something reeks...

...and it smells like Karl Rove.

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Response to Blue Owl (Reply #2)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 04:14 PM

3. Is it fishy when they've traditionally had Obama leading?

 

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Response to Blue Owl (Reply #2)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 09:00 PM

39. Is Pew a republican pollster? Cause if you build it it will come. When I want

to go back on my computer from some webpage and it is stuck, I press refresh then the back button quickly and the jiggles everything so that the back button then works. What I'm saying is just the excercise of voters sprinting to Romney en mass is enough to jar independants, who were leaning Obama, and encourage them to Romney. Would a pollster do this for the GOP when it was not true? Who is Pew anyhow?

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Response to FrenchieCat (Reply #4)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 06:29 PM

25. Ha, that's the least of it - look at this -->

"This race is closer than you think. If you don't think Obama's in trouble you're deluding yourself. The 2008 mojo is gone. If he wins by 2 million I'd be surprised...this just might be another 2000. "
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=580591

"Liberals don't read."
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=1138790

"No apology. Only spineless liberals apologize."
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1017&pid=33985

"Pew a 9pt swing to Romney up 49-45
Ouch! Reagan type swing!"
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251126408

"Carter Reagn type change...O is in trouble."
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=126430

and of course this one, "Romney the new Reagan?"
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=1495497

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Response to Care Acutely (Reply #25)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 07:18 PM

30. Thank you, sincerely, for this information. Most helpful!

 

As a relative newcomer, I am not familiar with who says what, relentlessly and with real dedication. I mostly look at post count when I see a real downer, especially if the downer is not based on anything but opinion.

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Response to Cattledog (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 04:17 PM

5. It is just one poll.

 

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Response to Cattledog (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 04:21 PM

6. This will rebound like all the others

Don't freak out.

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Response to Cattledog (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 04:23 PM

7. This poll is through October 7. The job numbers haven't taken affect yet.

 

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Response to Cattledog (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 04:24 PM

8. They talked to a lot of Republicans



This month
34.7% Republican
34.0% Democrat
31.3% Independent

Last month
30.6% Republican
37.1% Democrat
32.3% Independent

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Response to TexasCPA (Reply #8)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 04:32 PM

10. that's random sampling for you

 

party ID shifts with enthusiasm.

There's some evidence in the tracking polls that Obama has stemmed to bleeding and recovered. But the media is gonna be all over this poll, esp if other polls confirm this. Obama can turn it around. But damn.

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Response to TexasCPA (Reply #8)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 07:31 PM

31. Independents should NEVER get a third of the poll, but they do and it skews it.

Most Independents are Republicans who think they know better. Rarely a liberal. AND they do not constitute 1/3 of the voters, yet these polls include them as if there are 1/3 of voters who are Independents. This happens every election. And it's always BS.

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Response to Cattledog (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 04:27 PM

9. wow maybe Romney really IS reaganesque! /s

No worries, Romney couldn't pull of a Reagan move for a minute let alone a sustained period of time.

Romney is going to get a post debate bump. It's already been mitigated in other polls. It's not a Reagan swing unless it actually lasts, which not one pollster has said is what they see so far because of course they can't say that. It hasn't been a week yet and Romney is already stepping in it today re foreign policy.

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Response to Cattledog (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 04:33 PM

11. Worth noting it's a smaller sample than the Gallop where Obama lead +5

Could be significant.

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Response to Cattledog (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 04:39 PM

12. Preventing the Reagan effect


From
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021465897

Besides the high misery index and the hostages, the thing that won the 1980 election for Reagan was his debate performance which overcame the very effective painting the Carter campaign had done of Reagan as a dangerous oaf.

So far the Obama campaign have painted Romney as someone who doesn't care about the middle class (which judging from the 47% tape is correct). Romney's number one goal in the debates was to reverse this. The question is how well did he succeed?


----------------

I'm not liking the answer to my own question. The President has to set Romney on his heels in the next debate!

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Response to Cattledog (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 04:40 PM

13. I guess Obama

 

wasnt playing some 3 dimensional chess as so many on here said he was when he tanked on Wed.

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Response to Cattledog (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 05:23 PM

14. Except that the Carter-Reagan debate was a week before the election &

there only debate. Obama has time to rebound and indications already in other polls are that he is.

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Response to Cattledog (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 05:28 PM

15. Women voters

Pew had Obama leading by 18 among Women voters before the debate... now TIED?

Yeah, not buying it.

I guess he needs to come out wearing a pink tie in the next debate.

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Response to WallaceRitchie (Reply #15)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 05:31 PM

16. I'm having trouble with that one as well

Did women split evenly in either of the Bush elections? Just trying to remember when/if that happens these days?

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Response to WallaceRitchie (Reply #15)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 05:33 PM

17. might have something to do

 

with Obama looking so feckless during the debate.

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Response to woolldog (Reply #17)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 05:42 PM

19. Doubt it

Despite my pink tie joke, I refuse to believe that women are shallow when it comes to this election... that they would need an "I Love Women!" shoutout to continue to support the President.

Obama vowed not to cut Healthcare, Medicare, Social Security, or Education. Some pundits claim the poll swings are due to Obama's failure to mention women's issues during the debate. These are not just male-only topics.

Whether the President seemed "feckless" during the first debate, his stances on Women's issues have been clear.

Romney TALKS about supporting women. Obama actually DOES it.

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Response to woolldog (Reply #17)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 05:43 PM

20. As a women, that would embarrass me

Everyone worried women were dumb enough to vote for McCain because he put a woman on the ticket. I said no way, and I was right. We aren't as dumb as that. And I don't believe women who were for Obama suddenly swung to the anti-woman party because Mitt was macho in the debate. That's insulting. Beyond insulting. Either there were more GOP women in this poll (which could be since the sample in this Pew poll completely flipped from majority Dem last time to majority GOP this time) or something else is screwy. I just can't buy that women are flipping in huge numbers to go R unless there's a more substantial reason.

Call me a denier all you want, but when a sample makes such a dramatic swing, it just doesn't make sense. Time will tell, I guess.

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Response to fugop (Reply #20)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 05:47 PM

24. I'm nonplussed as well.

 

Pew is a good pollster. I have no idea what's going on.

I have a sick feeling in my stomach right now at the thought of Romney winning. The economy is going to improve no matter who's in office and I'd hate to see the Rs (and esp Romney) get credit for it.

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Response to WallaceRitchie (Reply #15)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 07:33 PM

32. again. they OVER sampled "independents." they do NOT make up 1/3 of the voters...

plus they're most often conservative or libertarians.

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Response to Cattledog (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 05:40 PM

18. Obama better be boning up like no one has ever prepared for a debate in history.

If he loses because of his awful debate performance, he will forever be viewed as lazy, careless, and arrogant. In other words, Newt Gingrich and the crazies will get their nutjob theories of Obama cemented in history.

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Response to VirginiaTarheel (Reply #18)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 05:44 PM

21. And uppity.

Don't forget uppity.

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Response to Cattledog (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 05:46 PM

22. There is NO "OUCH" here. This is BULLSHIT. All other polls have Obama AHEAD. Gallup up 5 today.

 

Last edited Mon Oct 8, 2012, 06:32 PM - Edit history (1)

It doesn't show Obama's jobs report bounce nor MittTwit's regression these last few days. Maybe a good poll for the TIME it was taken, but things have since settled back again.

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Response to Cattledog (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 05:47 PM

23. The people criticizing the polls are no better than the conservative poll truthers

I assume these are legitimate polls. It's not the polls that are to fault, it's Obama and the electorate. Obama didn't show any sort of fight in the debate, and the electorate in general doesn't seem to care about what is and isn't true.

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Response to tarheelsunc (Reply #23)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 06:31 PM

26. This poll DOES NOT SHOW Obama's jops report bounce nor Mitt's REGRESSION these last two days.

 

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Response to tarheelsunc (Reply #23)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 06:48 PM

29. Agenda is showing like a floor length slip under a miniskirt.....!

Either pull the slip up or pull down the skirt!

Some of us weren't born here yesterday....
we all know the fallacy of some of these polls,
as do you.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251123707

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Response to FrenchieCat (Reply #29)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 07:56 PM

36. No poll is perfect of course, but PEW is pretty reliable

A lot of people think because Romney is up considerably, the poll is wrong. That's exactly what the right-wingers are doing when they say the polls are skewed for Obama. It doesn't do anyone any good to dismiss a perfectly valid poll. It may be attributable to bounce, but 9 points is a HUGE movement and that can't all be bounce.

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Response to tarheelsunc (Reply #36)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 07:59 PM

37. The poll's timing makes the results invalid as of this time......

even if it was accurate at another point in time.

You know this.....
So Dummying up ain't gonna get it.

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Response to FrenchieCat (Reply #37)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 08:05 PM

38. Even so, Romney gaining 9 points due to one single event is a huge deal.

I'm not dummying anything up. Even the 47% tape didn't have an impact anywhere near that strong. I don't care how long that bounce last or how big it is, I wouldn't hold my breath expecting the polls to return to the pre-debate levels any time soon.

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Response to tarheelsunc (Reply #23)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 07:34 PM

33. Can you understand that they have BAD methodology???

Or do you believe that 1/3 of the voters in America are REGISTERED as "Independents." They aren't and yet every freakin' election, we have to go over this for people here. When a poller does 1/3 Independents, it is WRONG. 1) Independents are most often republicans or libertarians who think they're smarter than everyone in the GOP. 2) Look at the data. there are NOT 1/3 of the voters in AMerica who are independents. It's oversampling...

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Response to progressivebydesign (Reply #33)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 07:38 PM

34. Poster understands.....but poster doesn't care....

Cause caring is not poster's reason d'etre.

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Response to progressivebydesign (Reply #33)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 07:52 PM

35. Not everyone identifies as strongly with their party as we do, those things can be quite volatile

What they register as is one thing, and what they tell the pollster is another. PEW has historically been a very good pollster and I'm pretty sure if they put out a poll with Obama up 10%, no one here would even question it. I'm quite sure after the last debate, Democratic enthusiasm slipped a bit among the weaker Democrats. I'm not saying their poll is perfect, but outright dismissing it is not really any different than saying it's skewed.

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Response to Cattledog (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 06:35 PM

28. Will Ipsos release its tracking poll today?

 

It's supposed to be daily. I wonder if it will match Pew's numbers.

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