HomeLatest ThreadsGreatest ThreadsForums & GroupsMy SubscriptionsMy Posts
DU Home » Latest Threads » Forums & Groups » Retired » Retired Forums » 2016 Postmortem (Forum) » SC CNN Poll for women 50+...

Tue Feb 16, 2016, 05:05 PM

SC CNN Poll for women 50+ ONLY! Don't be disheartened!

The numbers showing a substantial lead for Hillary in SC are skewed. Please check the details pp33 onwards. There are #'s only for women 50+ in sub urban areas. All other demographics are listed as N/A.

Why someone would release such an incomplete poll is beyond me... not.

Maybe this should be in another discussion thread but it is important to know where these numbers come from for everyone.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/16/politics/south-carolina-full-poll-results-donald-trump-hillary-clinton/index.html

19 replies, 1593 views

Reply to this thread

Back to top Alert abuse

Always highlight: 10 newest replies | Replies posted after I mark a forum
Replies to this discussion thread
Arrow 19 replies Author Time Post
Reply SC CNN Poll for women 50+ ONLY! Don't be disheartened! (Original post)
floppyboo Feb 2016 OP
KingFlorez Feb 2016 #1
Chichiri Feb 2016 #12
bravenak Feb 2016 #2
floppyboo Feb 2016 #5
bravenak Feb 2016 #9
floppyboo Feb 2016 #14
bravenak Feb 2016 #16
floppyboo Feb 2016 #19
Lucinda Feb 2016 #3
floppyboo Feb 2016 #4
thesquanderer Feb 2016 #6
floppyboo Feb 2016 #7
Lucinda Feb 2016 #10
Chichiri Feb 2016 #11
Lucinda Feb 2016 #13
mhatrw Feb 2016 #8
RDANGELO Feb 2016 #17
mhatrw Feb 2016 #18
RDANGELO Feb 2016 #15

Response to floppyboo (Original post)

Tue Feb 16, 2016, 05:07 PM

1. Okay, so it's unskewing time

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to KingFlorez (Reply #1)

Tue Feb 16, 2016, 05:37 PM

12. That guy still owes me a few thousand dollars.

Maybe I should make a similar bet with some Bernie fans here -- say, a dollar per pledged delegate difference? Could solve all my financial worries in a snap!

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to floppyboo (Original post)

Tue Feb 16, 2016, 05:14 PM

2. This is not factual

 

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to bravenak (Reply #2)

Tue Feb 16, 2016, 05:22 PM

5. Sorry, I forgot the link.

Is that what you meant by not factual, or that CNN is not factual? I don't understand. If I'm reading the poll incorrectly, please educate me.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to floppyboo (Reply #5)

Tue Feb 16, 2016, 05:33 PM

9. You are reading it wrong, that's all I meant

 

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to bravenak (Reply #9)

Tue Feb 16, 2016, 05:46 PM

14. is that your whole explanation?? n/t

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to floppyboo (Reply #14)

Tue Feb 16, 2016, 05:52 PM

16. That is a sufficient explanation

 

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to bravenak (Reply #16)

Wed Feb 17, 2016, 01:39 PM

19. sufficient perhaps to someone who says 'yes sir'

but this is a democratic forum, no? so your paternalistic answer to my request is truly insufficient.
Or perhaps you didn't read my question, which asked for elucidation, in which case why reply? In deed, why am I wasting my time

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to floppyboo (Original post)

Tue Feb 16, 2016, 05:16 PM

3. Do you have the link? n/t

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink



Response to floppyboo (Original post)

Tue Feb 16, 2016, 05:25 PM

6. N/A doesn't mean what you think it means

It does not mean that no such people were included in the pool; it just means that not enough of them were included to be able to break them out within a specified margin of error. (This is common usage, but it is also explained in the last paragraph on page 13 at your link.)

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to thesquanderer (Reply #6)

Tue Feb 16, 2016, 05:29 PM

7. thanks

so, it still stands that the poll is skewed though, no?

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to floppyboo (Reply #7)

Tue Feb 16, 2016, 05:34 PM

10. I don't see it in 538's list for SC and they just did an update

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/south-carolina-democratic/

Part of the reason I don't jump at polls is for weird sampling etc. I think we can get a general sense of what's happening, but I never get too carried away by any of them.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Lucinda (Reply #10)

Tue Feb 16, 2016, 05:36 PM

11. It's under Opinion Research Corporation. nt

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Chichiri (Reply #11)

Tue Feb 16, 2016, 05:39 PM

13. Ah cool. Thanks much!

I dinna make the connection!
They are pretty much in line with the other recent polls.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to thesquanderer (Reply #6)

Tue Feb 16, 2016, 05:33 PM

8. The entire Democratic poll consists of just 280 "likely voters".



CNN did not disclose the demographic breakdown of the "likely voters" they polled in the polling methodology. Hmmm. I wonder why!

Interestingly enough, Sanders leads by 14% among white voters. Sanders also leads among all voters under 50, but CNN did not see fit to publish this information.

Unweighing the averages, it is clear that the number of non-white voters CNN polled outnumbered the white voters polled by over a 2 to 1 margin. For the 56% of the voters who preferred Clinton supporters, the ratio of non-white voters for white voters was roughly 2.3 to 1. For the 38% of voters who prefered Sanders, the ratio of non-white voters to white voters was roughly 1.8 to 1. That works out to roughly 2.1 non-white voter polled for every white voter poll.

Therefore, this poll's "model" predicts that fewer 1 in 3 of the SC Democratic primary voters will be white. Furthermore, since the white voter category was placed within the margin 8.5% margin of error cutoff and men and the under 50 voter categories were not, this poll's "model" also predicts that fewer than 1 in 3 of the SC Democratic primary voters will be men and fewer than 1 on 3 of the SC Democratic primary voters will be under 50.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to mhatrw (Reply #8)

Tue Feb 16, 2016, 06:04 PM

17. In 2008 43% of the Democratic voters were white, and 55% were black.

In 2004 49% of the Democratic voters were black without Obama.

Can Hillary get the same African American turnout that Obama got.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to RDANGELO (Reply #17)

Tue Feb 16, 2016, 06:14 PM

18. This poll is predicting that more than 65% of the Democratic primary voters will be non-white.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to floppyboo (Original post)

Tue Feb 16, 2016, 05:49 PM

15. It also says that 40% are still making up there minds.

If this is accurate, there is an awful lot of soft support out there. It's a shame Bernie can't get a debate before this primary.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink

Reply to this thread