Sooooooooo.....if Hillary leads with blacks, Hispanics, women, gays, black millennials and non white

[uponit7771]

... poor.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_National_20416.pdf (page 43 and 45)


Who is Sanders left with?!


Could it be this Sanders thing is LESS of a revolution and more like a temper tantrum from the


.....establishment?


Your take?


tia

[virtualobserver]

1. Hillary looked unbeatable in the "polls".....in actual voting, not so much

Lets wait for the voting, shall we?

[uponit7771]

3. We'll see, this trend line stops in around ... 6 month? tia

[MaeScott]

2. Sanders represents the 99%, Clinton, not so much. nt

[uponit7771]

4. The polls say different no? tia

[bravenak]

76. Are blacks a part of the 99? Women, poc?

[SheenaR]

5. Let me get this straight...

The Sanders campaign and the movement behind it, is an instrument of "the establishment". Is that what I am reading?

Because that's what I'm reading.... Gotta go update my post on Talking Points of the Day

[uponit7771]

13. unnnnnn, you MIGHT not be looking at the deductive part of the question.. answer that part

... and the establishment is well outlined no?

[SheenaR]

18. I looked right at it

and saw right through your bullcrap.

Who does he have left? I don't know. Why is he running even in Nevada? Why does he have the greatest fund-raising operation in American History? Why is Clinton going more and more negative every day if she has it in the bag?

You are right.. He has nobody. We surrender...

This crap is getting old fast.

[ram2008]

6. Millennials, whites, asians, soon to be latinos, splitting lgbt

Enough of a coalition to win the primaries.

[uponit7771]

39. Nationally Latinos are hard lean Hillary and in SEC states even harder, it's an MSM meme that

... Latinos are breaking any any numbers to Sanders.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/01/19/bernie-sanders-gains-on-hillary-clinton-in-a-new-poll-but-its-not-all-good-news-for-him/

Millienal PoC are out for Sanders also, they are hard lean Hillary... don't know numbers on Asians

That's why I asked who's' left for sanders other than the establishment

[ram2008]

47. Wrong that article is from January

Bernie only lost PoC by 1% in NH, and almost surely won the millennials in that group. Not a hard lean for Hillary at all.

We will see in Nevada whose left for Bernie, I think he will make big gains with Hispanics- they are the key swing group.

[libdem4life]

59. He just picked up the Massachusetts Latino Coalition. n/t

[CajunBlazer]

69. Wooo, and you know that's a big voting block

[morningfog]

7. Are those numbers based on actual votes cast?

I don't think so.

[uponit7771]

11. No, just current polling which means something... we have time... though

[JonLeibowitz]

52. Well, hillary leads in national polling so this is what you'd expect...no?

[AtomicKitten]

8. Really? He kicked her butt in ALL demographics in New Hampshire with the exception of those over 65.

[uponit7771]

9. Bookmarked, he lost PoC in NH by 2% and in IA by 25% after spending 3 months there...

... you know that right?

tia

[winter is coming]

10. And those who make over $250K/year, if memory serves. n/t

[AtomicKitten]

22. correct

Bernie Sanders Wins Every Demographic Group
http://www.nytimes.com/live/new-hampshire-primary-2016-election/bernie-sanders-wins-every-demographic-group/

Senator Bernie Sanders beat Hillary Clinton among nearly every demographic group in the Democratic New Hampshire primary, according to exit polls.

He carried majorities of both men and women. He won among those with and without college degrees. He won among gun owners and non-gun owners. He beat Mrs. Clinton among previous primary voters and those participating for the first time. And he ran ahead among both moderates and liberals.

Even so, there were a few silver linings for Mrs. Clinton. While Mr. Sanders bested her among all age groups younger than 45, the two candidates polled evenly among voters aged 45 to 64. And Mrs. Clinton won the support of voters 65 and older. And, though Mrs. Clinton lost nearly every income group, she did carry voters in families earning over $200,000 per year.

[LexVegas]

12. Its bizarro world. Women and minorities part of the establishment. White congressman not. nt

[uponit7771]

14. +1

[ram2008]

15. You mean the white congressman that overwhelmingly support Hillary? nt

[uponit7771]

16. Looking at Sanders coalition and the fact its very similar to the one Clinton lost with in 08

... they have good reason no?

tia

[ram2008]

20. The coalition is pretty different

Obama lost NH to Hillary by 3 points, Bernie won by 22. Obama won Iowa, they tied.

Bernie does better with whites, younger voters, and those making less money than Obama did. Obama did better with affluent people and Blacks compared to Bernie.

Bernie will be more competitive in Appalachia, the northeast and rust belt and less competitive in the south. The difference however this time, will depend on which way latinos swing, because if they go toward Bernie that put the entire southwest in play and all the big states. If Bernie over performs Obama with hispanics, he will win.

[uponit7771]

29. Demographically... mmmmmmm,..... no... no its not that different from Clinton's 08 coalition and

... I'm talking about polling numbers and not won or lost states.

Latinos lean hard (by less than 8 points than AA's) towards Clinton right now... the Latino swing is a MSM meme and doesn't have any credibility behind it right now.

There's no marginalized dem demographic that's going towards Sanders other than white young

[redwitch]

78. Joyfully supported President Obama in 08

And joyfully supporting Bernie Sanders in 2016.

[uponit7771]

80. That's cool, I'm not joyfully liking the non answers on the revolution front

[LexVegas]

17. Yeah white congressman in the most powerful legislative body on earth are part of the establishment.

[uponit7771]

30. Yeap, for some reason blacks and Hispanics and Gays and Women now are part of the oppressors

[Fearless]

25. No one said that.

And it's quite clear that Bernie is not an establishment candidate and Hillary IS.

[TacoD]

19. Jury results:

On Tue Feb 16, 2016, 08:23 PM an alert was sent on the following post:

Sooooooooo.....if Hillary leads with blacks, Hispanics, women, gays, black millennials and non white
http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511249682

REASON FOR ALERT

This post is disruptive, hurtful, rude, insensitive, over-the-top, or otherwise inappropriate.

ALERTER'S COMMENTS

Flamebait and race baiting, implies that POC don't support Bernie.

You served on a randomly-selected Jury of DU members which reviewed this post. The review was completed at Tue Feb 16, 2016, 08:28 PM, and the Jury voted 1-6 to LEAVE IT.

Juror #1 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: No explanation given
Juror #2 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: yet another lame alert....childish.
Juror #3 voted to HIDE IT
Explanation: I agree with the words of the alerter.
Juror #4 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: alerter can disagree and discuss with poster. Not hide worthy.
Juror #5 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: Kind of stupid, and arguably race-baiting, but I'm going to let it stand since no DUer was specifically called out or bullied. But it is a meritless and divisive post.
Juror #6 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: The post says that Clinton "leads" with various groups, not that nobody in any of those groups doesn't support Sanders. In fact, the implication is that both Clinton and Sanders have some support with various groups, but the Clinton's support is greater. If Clinton doesn't lead among any of the groups named, then point that out. Can we please stop with the hair-trigger alerts?
Juror #7 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: Nowhere near hide-worthy -- just a typical dumb GDP post.

Thank you very much for participating in our Jury system, and we hope you will be able to participate again in the future.

[uponit7771]

31. thx much, the temper tantrums are going to get worse I think

[frylock]

42. Oh, you can bank that.

[Bluenorthwest]

48. I did not alert and would not have voted to hide but as a gay man I find your posts exploitative

and baiting. I'd never hide that, I like that mottled ass to show proudly though those chaps. Let the whole world see what you are saying and especially how you say it.

You do not speak for LGBT and when speaking of us as a political cohort please do not exclude large parts of our community by saying 'gays'. If you are going to carry on as if you are some Voice of All Minorities you need to get your verbiage into a respectful and inclusive place.

[HooptieWagon]

21. She doesn't lead with women. She doesnt lead with poor.

She's losing ground with blacks and Latinos. Her true firewall appears to be over 65 and over $200,000 income. IDK what polling is on LBGT, probably strongly Clinton despite her 'evolving' only recently.

[uponit7771]

33. This is false and no she's not losing ground with blacks and Latinos according recent polls national

... nationally and in SC.

The race is tigtening, Sanders is going to get some of the 10 - 15% uncommitted .. that's a given

I don't know what's up with the NV polls, there's usually no 5050 splits like that

[CajunBlazer]

49. The NV poll was done by a right wing group which Nate Silver rates very poorly

That pool had leading questions which nor competent poll organization would ever include. But it's being used because there are no other recent poll for the state. I guess we will have to wait till we get a decent poll to know what's going on in that state.

[uponit7771]

61. Ah, got it... don't know why the MSM wants to tout that poll, they should have their own scoring

... model

[Fearless]

23. Funny how she lost ALL of those categories in NH and several in Iowa!

[uponit7771]

34. This is false, Sanders lost PoC by 2% in NH and by 25% in IA after spending 3 months there

[Fearless]

50. The poutrage is strong in this one.

[sadoldgirl]

24. My take?

This is a very silly and presumptive OP.

Fail!

[jillan]

38. I know - there is no link! Just post anything.

[libdem4life]

64. Flame Bait. Fail.

[uponit7771]

70. Nope, good conversation with discussion of recent polling data and past history trend lines

... and people who are engaged learning a lot.

That's a good thing

[CajunBlazer]

71. Internet debate rule #1:

Internet debate rule #1: When you don't like a substantive post, but have no facts to argue against its contents, act dismissive and say something cool, like "fail!"

[cherokeeprogressive]

26. Who is Bernie Sanders LEFT with?

You want I should go on?

[farleftlib]

28. Oh yes! Nailed it!

[uponit7771]

35. Stadiums of the establishment.... yeap... thx

[KingFlorez]

27. Sanders equals Clinton in 2008

Not without a significant chunk of support, but doesn't have the coalition needed to win.

[jillan]

32. What polls are you looking at? Link?

[uponit7771]

36. National ones and ones in upcoming primary states

[jillan]

37. Where is the link?

[uponit7771]

45. Here, I'll edit the OP with link in this post

Pages 43 - 45

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_National_20416.pdf

Clinton leads with women by 35 point and even with whites...

My bad....

Maybe it's too early

[LondonReign2]

40. Ah, is this the replacement spin for the Hillary followers that would post poll after

poll of how inevitable she was? How did that work out?

[uponit7771]

53. That she's double digits with the marginalized and the establishment is with Sanders?! How in the

... hell does that mean she's inevitable?

tia

[LondonReign2]

84. The establishment is with Sanders? LMAO

I know this was one of the talking points for today, but do you guys even listen to yourselves? It's as if your are trying to destroy all credibility.

[frylock]

41. Well, you guys will always have your polls to look back at fondly.

I suppose that will be of some small comfort for you when President Sanders is being sworn in.

[uponit7771]

54. Science doesn't hurt

[frylock]

62. Good heavens Miss Sakamoto - you're beautiful!

[Vinca]

43. My take? The coronation will probably take place and it will have nothing to do with the voters.

(Think superdelegates.) Hillary's problem is in the general. She leads in the dishonesty polls . . . even among Democrats. My prediction is she doesn't win in November and you all blame it on Bernie.

[uponit7771]

55. Or it will cause Clinton is leading the marginalized in large numbers? tia

[Hekate]

44. Temper tantrum.

[Arazi]

46. Trendlines. Trendlines. Trendlines. Trendlines. Trendlines

For all of your categories

[uponit7771]

57. Yeah, they show Sanders losing in 6 months ... next?

[smiley]

51. she doesn't lead with any of these groups.

Don't believe what your idiot box tells you. If you that desperately want it to be true, then you need to realize Hillary is not a progressive. She may have called herself a liberal at on time, but her voting record says anything but.

Good luck with your mission and GO BERNIE!

[uponit7771]

58. This is false (PPP link inside)

Pages 43 and 44

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_National_20416.pdf

Data is good no?

[smiley]

72. "survey of 517 democratic voters"

I'm not buying it.

[uponit7771]

73. Over sampled for this primary... and only 80% LL... so... it's high ranked

[smiley]

74. sorry I'm not buying that either.

Over samples? Only 80% landlines? High ranked in what?

Come on man. I told you I'm not buyin.

[uponit7771]

75. Is this a joke? You know how these polls are done and weighted right? tia

[smiley]

82. obviously not.

[Duckhunter935]

56. interesting, you think she is a liar

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x5631339

And you support her?

[uponit7771]

60. Well, slightly more of a liar than Sanders ... still not worth the gamble on him though

[madokie]

63. You're nuts to even post crap like this

We've had two states so far and both were supposed to be in Hillary's column but guess what neither did. One was a landslide against her and the other had to have some shenanigans with coin tosses to even break even. No I'm not worried about Bernie Sanders at all. He'll be your and my next President, hide and watch. Get on board or don't it matters not as we'll do it without your help.

The issues that Bernie is talking about is issues that Americans care about and thats why we're going to him in droves. He's saying exactly what I've been saying for years

[uponit7771]

67. talking about national data (link inside)

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_National_20416.pdf

[CajunBlazer]

65. From the poll data - bad news for Sanders thoughout the poll

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Hillary Clinton?
71% Favorable
22% Unfavorable
8% Not sure

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Bernie Sanders?
59% Favorable
23% Unfavorable
18% Not sure

Conclusion: Of those who have an opinion of the candidates, Clinton is viewed more favorably
..........................................................

Democratic Primary Vote
Hillary Clinton: All 53% Women 60% Men 44%
Bernie Sanders: All 32% Women 25% Men 42%
Not Sure: Alll14% Women 15% Men 14%

Conclusion: The men are splitting their votes between Clinton and Sanders, but the women are going overwhelming for Clinton.
........................................................................

Democratic Primary Vote
Hillary Clinton: All 53% Hispanic 48% White 46% Black 82% Other 51%
Bernie Sanders: All 32% Hispanic 36% White 38% Black 8% Other 40%
Not sure: All 14% Hyspanic16% White 16% Black 10% Other9%

Conclusion: Clinton is beating Sanders in every category, but Clinton is an amazing 72% ahead among blacks.

[uponit7771]

66. YEAH!!! I thought Sanders was leading her among whites and he's not... it's mostly white males

... and that's it...

Just wow...

[CajunBlazer]

68. Yea, without white males Sanders would be going nowhere fast

And it still not going anywhere fast.

[jeff47]

77. So how'd PPP do in IA and NH?

Hint: Not so well. Kinda indicates their voter model may not be the best this year. But you're treating it as rock-solid.

[uponit7771]

79. Check RCP, there are 3 other similar polls

[jeff47]

81. That also missed in IA and NH.

"Other people are as wrong as we are" isn't exactly the argument you want to make.

[JackRiddler]

83. Key word: If.