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Fri Oct 5, 2012, 08:16 AM


TPM screws up report about debate poll

TPM had Romney fever, which is likely to spread to not only MSM and conservative reporters, but also to weak-ass "liberal" outlets.

TPM pretended that Obama's lead shrank from 9% to 5% in a post-debate Reuters poll.....but then corrected that to a 6% to 5% decrease.

Look at this horrible, sloppy piece of pseudo-journalism that my 10 year old could have topped:

Head to head among Likely Voters. Predebate Obama 48%, Romney 39%. Post-debate 48%, Romney 43%. [see update below ó the pre-numbers may actually be 47-41]

A 4 point move for Romney is substantial. But whatís notable is that Obamaís numbers didnít move. Romney picked people up. Also note that Ipsos had Obama with a 9 point lead pre-debate, which is much bigger than most polls have at the moment. The current PollTracker Average has a 3.6 point lead for Obama. So if you put a 4 point jump against those numbers it would put him back into a tie. But those kinds of apples to oranges comparisons donít make sense.

What do they mean the actuall pre-debate numbers "may" be 47-41? Those numbers are available online!


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Reply TPM screws up report about debate poll (Original post)
Blue Yorker Oct 2012 OP
Proud Liberal Dem Oct 2012 #1
graham4anything Oct 2012 #2
davidpdx Oct 2012 #3

Response to Blue Yorker (Original post)

Fri Oct 5, 2012, 08:31 AM

1. I read TPM and enjoy it for most part

but sometimes, yeah, they drop the ball. I didn't detect any "Romney fever" at TPM though sometimes their headlines can be grossly misleading.

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Response to Blue Yorker (Original post)

Fri Oct 5, 2012, 08:34 AM

2. I see Obama gained a point of popularity, and lost nothing


As Obama in Gallup is up to 54 and in this close to 50, it matters little any voter on the other side.

The important number in all the polls is Obama's (and in just about all the important states (and I could care less about the red states, they are irrelevant) and in all the blue states, he is at or way over 50.

So the post debate spin is all irrelvant.

and in Nate Silver's totals- Obama is what at 77% or 81% to win.
Obama could drop 27 and still win. And that isn't happening and won't happen.

it's like SCOTUS' second Gore/Bush ruling.(the 5 to 4 one after ruling 7 to 2 to go to Florida court to decide)

Time ran out
sorry suckers.
Mitt lost, it's on to 2016.

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Response to graham4anything (Reply #2)

Fri Oct 5, 2012, 08:56 AM

3. The new unemployment numbers will make a difference as well, dropped to 7.8%

I'd love to see them drop to 7.6 or 7.5% next month.

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