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ram2008

(1,238 posts)
Fri Feb 5, 2016, 07:08 PM Feb 2016

Ipsos/Reuters poll: Sanders/Clinton in deadheat - Hillary: 48%, Bernie 45%!

Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders has erased Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's wide lead for the Democratic presidential nomination since the start of year, putting the two in a dead heat nationally, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll.

Clinton leads Sanders 48 percent to 45 percent among Democratic voters, according to the poll of 512 Americans, conducted Feb. 2-5 following the Iowa caucus. The poll has a credibility interval of 5 percentage points.

Democrats had been supporting Clinton by more than a 2-to-1 margin at the beginning of the year. Sanders has narrowed that lead considerably over the past several weeks.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll-idUSKCN0VE2NG


To be clear, Ipsos/Reuters tends to have wild swings in its polling and is generally more unreliable than others, however, it is the trend that counts. And this is one hell of a trend!
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reformist2

(9,841 posts)
1. Two major polls within 24 hours saying it's a dead heat. This is looking real, everyone.
Fri Feb 5, 2016, 07:11 PM
Feb 2016

The powers that be, the 1%, Wall Street, the MSM - they are all going to go nuts.

Buckle up - next week is going to be CRAZY.

ram2008

(1,238 posts)
4. I'd like to see a newspaper poll
Fri Feb 5, 2016, 07:16 PM
Feb 2016

Fox, CNN, ABC/Wapo, or CBS/NYtimes tend to be somewhat reliable. If there's a swing there, then it's definitely for real. I think the race moved from 10-15 Hillary lead nationally to 5-10 after Iowa. Hopefully after a big win in NH it goes to a national tie.

Chemisse

(30,793 posts)
5. I really cannot believe Clinton was ahead by 20 points a few days ago,
Fri Feb 5, 2016, 07:16 PM
Feb 2016

And now she and Sanders are in a dead heat.

I suspect Sanders' rising popularity has been concealed by that same media that had been ignoring him. I just don't think it can change that much, that fast.

 

HooptieWagon

(17,064 posts)
7. I can believe there was a big gain.
Fri Feb 5, 2016, 07:23 PM
Feb 2016

The media has been covering Sanders more since the holidays, there's been two debates and two town halls in the past few weeks...Sanders did very well in all of them, and there was a lot of media coverage of a virtual tie in Iowa with surprised the pollsters and pundits. Plus, Clinton and her surrogates recent attacks and smears are just getting Sanders more attention and Google searches. It all adds up to a sizeable shift.

Chemisse

(30,793 posts)
10. I am wondering if the nationwide poll that showed Clinton being up by 20
Fri Feb 5, 2016, 07:28 PM
Feb 2016

Was an old one that perhaps nobody wanted to pay to have updated, since it was so favorable to her, and since Sanders going up in the polls is not something they really wanted people to know about.

I'm not sure how this all works though. I just can't see such a fast switch.

 

HooptieWagon

(17,064 posts)
13. I suspect...
Fri Feb 5, 2016, 07:32 PM
Feb 2016

That after Iowa and the strong youth turnout that the pollsters have changed their models to reflect more youth support than they had previous.

rocktivity

(44,555 posts)
11. Over the past few weeks? Funny how the pollsters are always the last to know
Fri Feb 5, 2016, 07:29 PM
Feb 2016

Sounds more to me that they've gotten into the habit of trying to contribute to the "narrative" by producing results that the mainstream media wants to hear.




rocktivity

kenn3d

(486 posts)
16. The national polls are really not too meaningful
Fri Feb 5, 2016, 07:44 PM
Feb 2016

...and this Ipsos/Reuters rolling poll especially has been widely discounted, often producing wide and unlikely swings day to day. I have pretty much ignored it for months since Godhumor and others here cast doubt (to say it nicely) on its statistical veracity.

Still the trends we see emerging now seem to be echoed even here:
http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TR131

With no filtering: 634 Dem + 200 Indy + 129 Rep = 963 Respondents


So, FWIW, this pollster has never shown anything anywhere near to this apparent statistical tie.

reformist2

(9,841 posts)
17. The Hillary Camp still has the PPP poll, which shows Hillary +21 over Bernie, lol.
Fri Feb 5, 2016, 07:44 PM
Feb 2016

Of course, PPP had Hillary +8 just before the Iowa Caucus...
 

demwing

(16,916 posts)
18. The best way to get America's attention
Fri Feb 5, 2016, 07:48 PM
Feb 2016

was by getting Hillary's attention. I think it's fair to say that Sander's got Clinton's full attention in Iowa.

Bernie hasn't run a "perfect" campaign, but it has had perfect moments, and will be one for the history books. Even if Bernie doesn't win (and winning seems more and more possible every day!) he's already had a bigger affect on our society than has Clinton.

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