If the polls are so wrong, why are the GOP Super PACs bailing out on Romney?

[cleduc]

Romney had to borrow $20 mil to get through August.

Romney & Ryan have been doing a lot of fundraisers - including many in non battleground states - a bunch more than Obama. Romney-Ryan are behind and have been criticized for doing fewer campaign events than Obama-Biden ... because they're running around the country with their hands out to the 53%.

Early voting has started. We're down to the short strokes of this election.

If they're so starved for cash and need to do more campaign events, you'd think the Super Duper PACs would step up. Isn't that why we were supposed to be so afraid of them? The big ad spending that would put Obama away? Wouldn't you want to get behind your guy when he's down and push to get him back into the game?

Ad Spending in Presidential Battleground States
http://www.nationaljournal.com/hotline/ad-spending-in-presidential-battleground-states-20120620
- was updated recently today

Restore Our Future is Romney's own Super PAC that his people control and it's still contributing what it can. It's funding was falling in August and it's bank balance was down to about $7 mil at the end of August so it was running short of cash then.

Apparently, according to a Washington Post article, this week's ad spending has pretty much exhausted what the RNC can contribute to Romney.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/decision2012/obama-has-more-control-of-campaign-cash-and-with-it-an-edge-in-ad-rates/2012/09/26/c85304ea-03f9-11e2-91e7-2962c74e7738_story.html

the RNC has used up nearly all of the $21.6 million it is allowed to spend under law on coordinated advertising with the Romney campaign, records show.

Here's what that leaves:

Crossroads (Rove) spent $331k in Florida and $395k in Nevada. That's it. And that's way below Karl's pace (particularly as ad spending is ramping up) and well below his $5.66 mil last week.

Americans for Prosperity, American Future Fund & Concerned Women for America didn't show up last week or this week with any dough for ads.

I've been watching this closely for a couple of weeks because I felt that if the internal polls done by the GOP started to stink, Rove wouldn't be stupid and bet heavy on second place. I figured he'd do what they did to Bob Dole: bail out and place bigger bets down the GOP ticket.

Today, might be evidence of that happening. I wouldn't take it to the bank yet because these folks are not stupid or trustworthy. But there's been funny stuff going on for a few weeks with this ad spending so it's quite possible this is a further sign that they've thrown in the towel on Mitt.

I just saw the numbers so I've got some more crunching to do and I'll post back in this thread if I have anything else to add.

[Kteachums]

1. They are doing something else while we are thinking adds.

They could be fooling with the voters, creating false voters, and blocking Democratic votes? It ain't over folks! We need to keep our eyes open!

[cleduc]

2. I agree to the extent

that anything could be going on.

So full throttle to the finish

[cleduc]

3. After punching the numbers in my spreadsheet,

here are a few other thoughts.

1. Michigan
Obama hasn't spent a dime there.
Before this week, the Romney Super PACs have spent $8.2 mil

The result: Obama +8.8 in poll of polls, over the 50% level with 51.2%
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/mi/michigan_romney_vs_obama-1811.html
= Romney really hasn't made a net dent in months.

This week, Romney's Super PAC spends another mil in Michigan. Is that spending in desperation, fishing to get a state back into the toss up column because Romney is running out of competitive states?

2. Wisconsin
Obama has spent $1 mil there starting last week.
Romney et al has spent $9.7 mil

The result: Obama +7.8, over the 50% level with 51.5%
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/wi/wisconsin_romney_vs_obama-1871.html
= it got close with Ryan's selection but has since widened substantially.

This week, Obama spent $1.4 mil, Romney spent $2.57 mil so they're trying to bring that state back into play.

3. Obama and his groups out spent Romney by $4.35 mil this week so that's not as dramatic as I thought it might be. However, in the "real" battleground states (ignoring WI & MI who are not nearly as tight), Obama outspent Romney by 41% and because Obama's own campaign outspent Romney's own campaign by $5 mil, individual campaign ads are about 40% cheaper, so it's going to be more than a 41% noticeable difference.

My general premise remains: one may chose to not believe the polls but those ad spending dollars also suggest rather strongly compared to Super PAC expectations that the Romney campaign, a team behind, is having a lot more problems than the Obama campaign.

[smorkingapple]

4. They threw towel in a while ago, they just used Mitt to raise money for the Senate and House

They knew it was always an uphill battle to unseat Obama