Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member Latest Breaking News General Discussion The DU Lounge All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search

2016 Postmortem

tgards79

(1,415 posts) Mon Feb 1, 2016, 09:48 AM Feb 2016

BTRTN Iowa Prediction: Hillary Holds off Bernie, Cruz Wins Tight Three-Way GOP Race

This is a very, very, very hard race to predict. Did I say it was hard? Hillary's lead too big to surmount, and the GOP race is inexorably tightening as Rubio makes a run:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2016/02/iowa-prediction-cruz-will-win-three-way.html

3 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

BTRTN Iowa Prediction: Hillary Holds off Bernie, Cruz Wins Tight Three-Way GOP Race (Original Post) tgards79 Feb 2016 OP

Snow starts at 10 PM tonight... tgards79 Feb 2016 #1

What's the buzz on turnout? tgards79 Feb 2016 #2

BTRTN's numbers are off demwing Feb 2016 #3

tgards79

(1,415 posts)

1. Snow starts at 10 PM tonight...

Reply to tgards79 (Original post)

Mon Feb 1, 2016, 10:08 AM

Feb 2016

...according to weather.com for Des Moines.

tgards79

(1,415 posts)

2. What's the buzz on turnout?

Reply to tgards79 (Original post)

Mon Feb 1, 2016, 02:26 PM

Feb 2016

Any sense in Iowa about whether turnout will be strong?

demwing

(16,916 posts)

3. BTRTN's numbers are off

Reply to tgards79 (Original post)

Mon Feb 1, 2016, 02:44 PM

Feb 2016

He shows Clinton with an average 7 point lead, RCP has her at 4%

Also "Hillary's lead to big to surmount" is not based on fact, but speculation. The author doesn't see Bernie generating turnout, but has he seen the crowds Bernie is pulling?

It will be close, but Bernie has the enthusiasm edge, and in a close race, that's all that counts.

Reply to this discussion