JUST RELEASED IOWA POLL!!! - Clinton 51% Sanders 43% O'Malley 4%

[DemocratSinceBirth]

Among Democrat primary voters, Hillary Clinton has an 8- point lead over Bernie
Sanders 51% to 43%.

http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_0f8be4ffea6949a298ba44d6eba0a6da.pdf

Of greater import Secretary Clinton has led in the last six Iowa caucus polls to be released:


http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-iowa-presidential-democratic-caucus

[stonecutter357]

1. K&R!

[NurseJackie]

2. Fantastic!

[SansACause]

3. I'm with her.

All the latest polls seem to agree that she has a 7-8% win.

[Madmiddle]

4. Sorry to say, but yoiur polls is exactly the opposite.

The real poll is Bernie at 57% Hillary 43%. Bernie will win in a landslide.

[tarheelsunc]

41. You obviously know more than the pollsters who have made a career doing this. eom

[berni_mccoy]

5. L.O.L! CallerID

The ECPS poll was conducted from January 29 through January 31. The polling sample was a random selection of registered voters purchased through Aristotle Inc. Likely primary voters were classified through a screening question. For non-completes with a working residential phone line, at least five callbacks were attempted. The Democratic and GOP Presidential primaries consisted of 300 and 298 adult registered likely primary voters in Iowa, with a margin of error of +/-5.6% respectively, at a 95 percent confidence level, was used for the additional statewide questions. Data was collected using an Interactive Voice Response system and weighted based on 2012 General Election voting to reflect likely voter populations in Iowa.

That's fucking laughable. Good luck with that!

[TekGryphon]

6. Is that you Karl Rove?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. No need to insult me, sir or madame.

Is that you Karl Rove?

No need to insult me, sir or madame. That being said , I will be the larger person, rise above the fray, and not respond in kind.


With all due respect,

DemocratSinceBirth

[bvf]

14. How long have you lived in France?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

15. I have never been to France, sir or madame./nt

[bvf]

17. Oh.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

18. If I may inquire, why did you ask, sir or madame ?/nt

[bvf]

39. Your whole act has become threadbare

and embarrassing in its ignorance. Keep going. You have nothing left to lose.

/TTAR

[DemocratSinceBirth]

42. Sir or madame

Your whole act has become threadbare
and embarrassing in its ignorance. Keep going. You have nothing left to lose.

/TTAR

Sir or madame, the need for you to use the anonymity of the internet to insult me reveals more about you than it can ever reveal about me. But I will continue to rise above the fray, be the bigger person, and not respond in kind.


With all due respect,

DemocratSinceBirth

[Gman]

51. Some people are going to be devastatingly disappointed

about this time tomorrow.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

57. At the risk of being cliched , it's a marathon and not a splint.

BTW, I wish the gentleman who attacked me did so in any other fora.

[Ken Burch]

88. You post as "DemocratSinceBirth"...

...and presume to lecture others about using "the anonymity of the internet"?

[1StrongBlackMan]

69. Perhaps we have differing standards of discourse; but, DSB's refusal to trade insults ...

is in no way an embarrassment, ignorant or threadbare act.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

77. Thank you for the segue, my brother.

I wish my reluctance to trade insults on an anonymous message board was a function of my temperament and good character and not because if I respond in kind, due to the vagaries of the jury system, I will have my post hidden and not be able to participate in a thread I started.

But I can take solace in the fact that I can look myself in the mirror and tell myself I am not the type of person that has to hide behind anything.

[workinclasszero]

73. Jeez why so touchy?

DSB posted a legit poll, which may or may not be accurate. Its not his fault either way.

Lighten up a bit, life will go on after tonight in any event.

[Purveyor]

89. Courtesy Report: Results of your Jury Service

AUTOMATED MESSAGE: Results of your Jury Service
Mail Message
On Mon Feb 1, 2016, 05:05 PM an alert was sent on the following post:

Your whole act has become threadbare
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=1108793

REASON FOR ALERT

This post is disruptive, hurtful, rude, insensitive, over-the-top, or otherwise inappropriate.

ALERTER'S COMMENTS

This is a needless and completely unprovoked personal attack. As nasty as it is unnecessary

You served on a randomly-selected Jury of DU members which reviewed this post. The review was completed at Mon Feb 1, 2016, 05:11 PM, and the Jury voted 3-4 to LEAVE IT.

Juror #1 voted to HIDE IT
Explanation: Personal attack
Juror #2 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: No explanation given
Juror #3 voted to HIDE IT
Explanation: No explanation given
Juror #4 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: No explanation given
Juror #5 voted to HIDE IT
Explanation: No explanation given
Juror #6 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: No explanation given
Juror #7 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: Normally, it is rude enough to hide. But...GDP has sunk so low, it is difficult to even muster a care about this. Mosh pit away, kids.

Thank you very much for participating in our Jury system, and we hope you will be able to participate again in the future.

[bvf]

108. Quel dommage, as the saying goes.

Thanks.

[SheenaR]

52. This, for one

Mad·ame
məˈdäm,-ˈdam/
noun
a title or form of address used of or to a French-speaking woman

Myself? If you are going to mix languages or just not make sense during your condescension, can you please make it Senoras or Senioritas?

[Human101948]

62. Why do you hate the French?

Without them there would be no U.S.A.!

The War of Independence plays such an important part in American popular ideology that references to it are especially prone to exaggeration and oversimplification. And two uncomfortable truths about it - the fact that it was a civil war (perhaps 100,000 loyalists fled abroad at its end), and that it was also a world war (the Americans could scarcely have won without French help) - are often forgotten.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/history/british/empire_seapower/rebels_redcoats_01.shtml

[SheenaR]

71. Well played

I do not hate the French and with an advanced degree in History I am aware of their contributions.

[Human101948]

74. Thank you, Madame Professor!

Most Americans are ignorant of that fact. I am a guide at a National Park location that has Revolutionary War significance. You would be shocked at how many don't rem ember what happened in 1776!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

75. Au contraire

Mad·ame
məˈdäm,-ˈdam/
noun
a title or form of address used of or to a French-speaking woman

Myself? If you are going to mix languages or just not make sense during your condescension, can you please make it Senoras or Senioritas ?

Dear sir or madame:

"Dear sir or madam(e)" has always been a perfectly acceptable salutation, in English, when you don't know the identify of whom you are speaking to, since time immemorial.


With all due respect,

DemocratSinceBirth

[bvf]

80. "Time immemorial"

Do yourself a favor and keep to words of two syllables or fewer, the better not to hurt yourself. As it stands, you're coming across like Irwin Corey, minus the comedy.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

85. Dear sir or madame, no matter how many times you insult me I will not respond in kind.

Do yourself a favor and keep to words of two syllables or fewer, the better not to hurt yourself. As it stands, you're coming across like Irwin Corey, minus the comedy.

-bvf

As I have said, ad nauseam and ad infinitum, I will be the bigger man, rise above the fray, and not respond to your puerile epithets in kind, here.




With all due respect,
DemocratSinceBirth

[bvf]

86. "Ad nauseum"?

Again, stick to English. There'll still be plenty of time for you to mangle Latin in your wretched attempts to sound educated.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

87. Dear sir or madame...

"Ad nauseum"?

Again, stick to English. There'll still be plenty of time for you to mangle Latin in your wretched attempts to sound educated.

-bvf

Ad nauseam= to the point of nausea


Ad infinty = to infinty
to no end



Dear sir or madame, as I have ad nauseam and ad inifity, I couldn't care less what you think my level of education is. The fact that you would use an anonymous message board to disrespect me reveals more about you than it can ever reveal about me.

With all due respect,

DemocratSinceBirth

[bvf]

91. I think you care *a great deal* about others' perceptions.

How better to explain your expression of umbrage when called upon your constant misuse of language, native or otherwise?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

92. Dear sir or madame, no many times you insult me I will not respond in kind.

I think you care *a great deal* about others' perceptions.How better to explain your expression of umbrage when called upon your constant misuse of language, native or otherwise?

-bvf

Do you insult random strangers in real life?

And if you do how does it work out for you?

Thank you in advance.


With all due respect,

DemocratSinceBirth

[bvf]

95. No, but I do make exceptions

for those who pretend to know English, and especially for those who've not only failed to do so, but who also crap on foreign tongues in pathetic reaches for a patina of erudition.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

96. Sir or madame, I can divine what my interlocutors look like and are like.

No, but I do make exceptions for those who pretend to know English, and especially for those who've not only failed to do so, but also crap on foreign tongues in pathetic reaches for a patina of erudition

.


Sir or madame, I have the gift of divining what my interlocutors are like and look like in real life and that gift allows me to divine that you are most definitely not the person to have the intestinal fortitude to disrespect anybody in real life. I am sure a smart lad like yourself will make the right inference from what I wrote.

With all due respect,

DemocratSinceBirth

[bvf]

100. Yes, you are gifted.

I know plenty of people similarly gifted.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

102. I take that as my assessment was correct. It's okay.

I take that as my assessment was correct. It's okay. Some folks need an anonymous medium to spew their venom. Spewing one's venom in real life is fraught with danger.

[bvf]

105. That's interesting. I mean, *really* interesting.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

107. Sir or madame

Sir or madame, I would literally wager my life my initial assessment was correct.

lit·er·al·ly
ˈlidərəlē,ˈlitrəlē/
adverb
in a literal manner or sense; exactly.
"the driver took it literally when asked to go straight across the traffic circle"
synonyms: exactly, precisely, actually, really, truly; More
informal
used for emphasis or to express strong feeling while not being literally true.
"I have received literally thousands of letters"

[bvf]

111. No you wouldn't.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

112. Of course I would.

It took a while but we now know what we think of each other.

Worse things to be than a pedant, even an arrant or failed one, much worse things.

[bvf]

113. No. You wouldn't.

Last edited Tue Feb 2, 2016, 02:01 AM - Edit history (1)

But it's amusing to see you belabor the point in so pretentious a manner.

ETA: You missed a few.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

120. A close reading of this sub-thread, sir or madame, establishes what kind of persons we both are.

If I have to go to my grave as a failed or arrant pedant there are much worse things I could have taken to the afterlife with me, much worse things.

[bvf]

122. Thanks for the laugh.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

123. X and Y

X is at worst a failed or arrant pedant who jocularly "crap(s) on foreign tongues in pathetic reaches for a patina of
erudition ", ergo:


http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=1112387


Y is a person who uses anonymous mediums to insult and disrespect people he or she would never have the intestinal fortitude to insult or disrespect in real life.


I am content to let the readers of this thread decide who X and Y are in our little tete-a-tete and whom they really would rather be.

[bvf]

125. Well, *that* was a chuckle.

I am content to let the readers of this thread decide who X and Y are in our little tete-a-tete and whom they really would rather be.

What a break for them. I'll bet they're grateful for your magnanimity.

You may want to edit your post. That word doesn't mean what you apparently think it does (and no, I'm not going to tell you which one--it's time you learned to pull your own weight).

[DemocratSinceBirth]

126. Sir or madame, I know what jocular means.

jocular=facetious, funny, humorous.

I would rather be the funny, facetious, and humorous guy than the guy who uses anonymous mediums to denigrate, disrespect, and dehumanize others, you?

[bvf]

129. Good luck on your choice, whichever you opt for.

You completely missed it, btw, but that was to be expected.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

130. Sir or madame...

Sir or madame, rather than exchange cryptic comments, please confine yourself to the discipline I imposed, and answer my straightforward question:

Would you rather be the funny, facetious, and humorous guy or the guy who uses anonymous mediums to denigrate, disrespect, and dehumanize others ?


Thank you in advance.


With all due respect,

DemocratSinceBirth

P.S. I would rather be the former.

[bvf]

133. Nope!

Your imposition carries no weight whatsoever. Funny that you think it might, though.

Would you rather have a candy bar or a mild case of gout? How about a bag of nickels vs. scabies?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

135. Sir or madame...

Sir or madame, if someone asked me if I would rather be a comedian or a bully and a pusillanimous one at that, who searches for anonymous mediums where he or she could disrespect, dehumanize, and denigrate people, I would readily say I would rather be the former. Why would I demur from answering such a straightforward question?



Respectfully,

DemocratSinceBirth

[bvf]

137. Really dodged a bullet there, didn't you?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

139. I don't think so.

I don't think so, sir or madame, but your refusal to answer my question is quite revealing... Too close to home???



Respectfully,

DemocratSinceBirth

[bvf]

141. So would you go for the bag of nickels?

Why refuse to answer such a simple question?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

143. The former, sir or madame. See how easy it was.

Would you rather have a candy bar or a mild case of gout? How about a bag of nickels vs. scabies?

The former in both instances, sir or madame. See how easy it was.


What your obscurantism fails to hide is I built a factual foundation before I asked my question.


Respectfully,

DemocratSinceBirth

[bvf]

145. Ever have scabies?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

146. I don't recall.

But you would have worked as hard as I did to establish a foundation for your question as I did mine.


Respectfully,

DemocratSinceBirth

[bvf]

148. Oh, you'd recall, all right. Nasty stuff.

[1StrongBlackMan]

90. I would refer to an individual with Doctoral level graduate studies under their belt ...

educated. Wouldn't you?

But that said, why are you doing this? Did your turtle run away and you're afraid your dog will bite you?

[bvf]

93. What ho! Reinforcements are in sight!

Now, let's see that transcript.

[1StrongBlackMan]

94. I'm loving your display; but, as any good liberal, I comment when I see someone acting out. eom

[bvf]

97. That's fair,

but I sense a certain defensiveness on your part regarding a particular, uh, interlocutor.

[1StrongBlackMan]

98. Get your senses fixed ...

They are way out of tune.

[bvf]

99. Thanks, Doc.

[1StrongBlackMan]

101. Any time! Misreading someone can prove harmful ...

for one's health.

[bvf]

106. Continue, by all means.

[1StrongBlackMan]

109. You eschew friendly advice?

[bvf]

114. Never.

But I can easily distinguish friendly advice from what reads like a thinly veiled threat.

[1StrongBlackMan]

121. As I offered, your interpretator is oit of whack. eom.

[bvf]

128. My interpretator is working just fine. n/t

[DemocratSinceBirth]

131. Sir or madame, it is my fair and unbiased opinion that it isn't.

My interpretator is working just fine.

Sir or madame, it is my fair and unbiased opinion that it isn't.

[bvf]

134. Shouldn't you be busy unmangling your accidents?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

136. What accidents?/nt

[bvf]

140. I've already told you you're on your own with this.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

142. Sir or madame, I am not too big not to give credit where credit is due.

Sir or madame, I am not too big a man to not give credit where credit is due. In my entire life I have never met a person as diligent as you in searching for picayune errors of grammar and word usage.

You have elevated it into an art, even finding misspellings and malapropisms even where they don't exist.

I feel as if I am "talking" to Professor Higgins.


Kudos!


Respectfully,

DemocratSincebirth

[bvf]

144. It's called "reading." You've heard of it, yes?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

149. Sir or madame...

Sir or madame, if you believing reading is synonymous with searching for picayune errors on the internet where they don't even exist, to patronize and insult strangers on an anonymous message board there is nothing I can do to disabuse you of that notion.




With all due respect,

DemocratSinceBirth

[bvf]

151. Unmangle your accidents yet?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

152. I am going to take a break from our tete a tete...

I will probably have a response later. Don't leave your computer.

[bvf]

153. Naturally.

[bvf]

155. Still having a hard time cleaning up your mess?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

158. That's what people...

Still having a hard time cleaning up your mess?

-bvf

That's what people like you are for.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

163. If

That's not how it works. If it were, I would be able to edit your posts. As it is, the best I have been able to do has been to do you the kindness of pointing out your pretentious buffoonery. You seem incapable of following through, except in those rare instances where you've managed to beat the edit clock.

Too bad for you, but entertaining for everyone else who delights in seeing your ever-growing trail of incompetence at what is assumed to be your native language.

Someone else here wondered if you work in education. I myself find that possibility alarming.

-bvf

If following me around this site searching for picayune errors so you can disrespect me boosts your self esteem I feel as if I am doing a service. In any other fora I would tell you what I think of you and your condescending attitude. Failing that I will take solace in the fact that you lack the intestinal fortitude to disrespect anybody away from the anonymity of an internet connection, especially me.

I am certain a lad as smart as you think you are can make the right inference.

[bvf]

164. Tee-hee.

Don't flatter yourself. Nobody's following you around, but if they were, it would be for the grins you unfailingly provide, sir or macadam.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

165. I stand by everything I said and I welcome anybody to...

Don't flatter yourself. Nobody's following you around, but if they were, it would be for the grins you unfailingly provide, sir or macadam.

I stand by everything I said and I welcome anybody to do a search. They will invariably discover you responding to my posts and trying to provoke me. I would literally wager my life that you could never muster the intestinal fortitude to disrespect me in any other fora. The fact that you persist reveals more about your pusillanimity than it can ever reveal anything about me.

[bvf]

166. Dear sir or madras: You're responding, too.

How about that? And from the anonymity of a fake handle, no less.

Astounding.


Respectively,

Something put in bold in order to indicate something or other, probably. Not really sure, but why not? Ergo ad infinity. With stadium muster.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

167. You continue to use this forum to belittle me.

Dear sir or madras: You're responding, too.
View profile
How about that? And from the anonymity of a fake handle, no less.

Astounding.


Respectively,

Something put in bold in order to indicate something or other, probably. Not really sure, but why not? Ergo ad infinity. With stadium muster.

-bvf

You continue to use this forum to belittle me. Pick another forum where we can speak freely and I will be more than happy to reveal my true identity. I never had to use the cloak of anonymity to insult anyone. That's not how I roll.

[bvf]

168. You belittle yourself.

I just point it once in a while.

You can't speak freely here? Hmm. Shame, that.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

169. We are at an impasse

You belittle yourself.

I just point it once in a while.

You can't speak freely here? Hmm. Shame, that.

-bvf

If I respond in kind to your puerile insults I will surely have my post hidden as so many of my friends here have. You can send me a private message. At that point I will give you my e-mail address and we can tell each other what we really think of each other. That would be the chivalrous thing to do. Unlike others here I will not reveal the contents of our private conversations nor will I forward them to the administrator. Again, that's not how I roll...

Also, the board doesn't have to be bored why you display your antipathy for me, from the anonymity of your computer.

The ball is in your court.

[bvf]

170. What a silly offer.

I've been pretty much saying what I think all along.

That you can't do likewise says plenty, all by itself.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

172. "What a silly offer"

What a silly offer.
I've been pretty much saying what I think all along.

-bvf

That you can't do likewise says plenty, all by itself.

Because if I said what I truly felt about your verbal bullying of me my post would be hidden.

Why do you insist on using the anonymity this message board provides, boring the rest of the members of this board displaying your antipathy for me, and wasting the Administrator's bandwidth when I have provided you with a venue to spew your venom for me?

[1StrongBlackMan]

174. I suspect, DSB has been saying WHAT he is thinking; but, not HOW he would say it in an open forum.

[Human101948]

64. Why do you hate Hillary Clinton?

She was Madam Secretary while heading the State Department and she doesn't seem French.

[bvf]

81. Can you read?

It doesn't seem so.

[Human101948]

82. Yes, I can read and I can see that you have an anger management problem...

You were the one casting aspersions on the French. Quel dommage!

[bvf]

84. Nope. Not even a good try.

Pauvre petit!

[thomservo]

9. check out the huffpo link...

New quinnipiac poll with sanders up 3.

[libdem4life]

103. This was out early this morning.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

13. No need to patronize me, sir or madame.

"L.O.L! CallerID...


That's fucking laughable. Good luck with that! "

No need to patronize me, sir or madame. That being said , I will be the larger person, rise above the fray, and not respond in kind.


With all due respect,

DemocratSinceBirth



P.S. For those interested in civil discourse here is a link to 538 which gives Hillary Clinton a 75% chance of winning the Iowa caucus:



?w=800&h



http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/iowa-democratic/#polls-only

[Flying Phoenix]

23. M$M is lying to you and your face.

Have a nice evening, Clinton supporters. Have a lot of tissues ready.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

27. Sir or madame, I only laugh or cry when I want to, and the latter is seldom.

Have a wonderful life.


Respectfully,

DemocratSinceBirth

[thomservo]

8. In the huff post link...

a new quinnipiac poll that shows Sanders up 3 with a much larger sample size.

[AtomicKitten]

10. Sanders 49 - Clinton 46

[riversedge]

21. Your poll--the Quinnpac started on Jan 25 -Jan 31. Things have changed

[thomservo]

28. huh?

Did something big happen in the last 12 hours?

[riversedge]

29. read my post better. Thank you.

[WI_DEM]

48. meaning it is a much longer period of time that they polled

While this poll was in the last three days.

[bvf]

31. For one thing, pollsters have stopped

dropping random letters from their names. You must have missed the memo.

[gyroscope]

11. Polls don't mean a thing

how many people actually show up to caucus is the only poll that matters.

its a toss up at this point.

[liberal N proud]

19. Unless your candidate is in the lead

[oasis]

12. Former Iowa Sen. Tom Harkin just said Hillary has the best Iowa caucus ground

operation he has ever seen.

[Zen Democrat]

16. Which would make an Iowa loss by Clinton even more profound.

[bvf]

22. Still trying to find his daughter a job, is he?

[riversedge]

20. Interesting....

The Qinnipiac poll that is being touted on gd-p started on Jan 25--through Jan31 -That is LONNNGGG time ago.
The Emerison poll in the OP is newer. --much better as things change so fast


http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-iowa-presidential-democratic-caucus

Pollster Dates Pop. Clinton Sanders O'Malley Biden Chafee Lessig Webb Undecided
Emerson College Polling Society NEW! 1/29 - 1/31 300 LV 51 43 4 - - - - 3
Quinnipiac NEW! 1/25 - 1/31 919 LV 46 49 3 - - - - 2

[TCJ70]

24. I'll admit to having only a little knowledge of polling practices...

...but wasn't yesterday Jan. 31? How is that a LONNNGGG time ago?

[MoonRiver]

59. Our MSM, aka crap for news, keeps pushing polls, any polls,

that put Bernie ahead and Clinton behind. If that means using old data to support their meme that Clinton will lose so be it.

Thanks for the reality checks riversedge!

[Plucketeer]

67. DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN!!!

[SidDithers]

25. DU rec...nt

Sid

[DrBulldog]

26. This poll is TEN days old.

And it's run by polling amateurs.

[riversedge]

33. The link in the Op says Jan 29-Jan 31. Where do you get 10 days old??????

[DemocratSinceBirth]

37. The poll was conducted 1/29-1/31

This poll is TEN days old.

The poll was conducted 1/29-1/31


http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_0f8be4ffea6949a298ba44d6eba0a6da.pdf

And it's run by polling amateurs.

Falsus in uno, falsus in omnibus

[Nanjeanne]

30. AMONG DEMOCRATS

those are the numbers reported.

Among Independents voting in the DEMOCRATIC primary the poll numbers are a 12 point spread 56-44 in favor of Sanders.

So the headline could have been Sanders ahead by 12 points.

Details details.

[bvf]

34. Good point, but DSB has just mastered posting videos.

Don't take that away from him. It would break his heart.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

50. Please see Post 40.

Thank you in advance.

[bvf]

53. Right.

/TTAR

[DemocratSinceBirth]

54. I am, thank you./nt

[DemocratSinceBirth]

40. Dear sir or madame, the top line results include all who will participate in the caucus.

AMONG DEMOCRATS

those are the numbers reported.

Among Independents voting in the DEMOCRATIC primary the poll numbers are a 12 point spread 56-44 in favor of Sanders.

So the headline could have been Sanders ahead by 12 points.

Details details.

Dear sir or madame, the top line results include all who will participate in the caucus:

Among Democrat primary voters, Hillary Clinton has an 8- point lead over Bernie
Sanders 51% to 43%

That is why the results are reported as Clinton 51 Sanders 43% 0' Malley 4% here:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ia/iowa_democratic_presidential_caucus-3195.html


here:


http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-iowa-presidential-democratic-caucus


and here:

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/iowa-democratic/#polls-only

[tarheelsunc]

45. Details details.

Thanks for posting the poll results and refuting the skewed-polls crowd

[DemocratSinceBirth]

46. Thank you.

BTW, those are links to aggregate polls (all polls) if you are interested.

[1StrongBlackMan]

65. Can Independent participate in Democratic Caucuses? eom

[DemocratSinceBirth]

72. Here

Only voters affiliated with a particular party may vote in its (IA) caucus. However, voters may change their party affiliation on the day of the caucus.

http://www.fairvote.org/primaries#presidential_primary_or_caucus_type_by_state

Any way I addressed the poster's larger point here:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=1108803

[LS_Editor]

32. We'll see.

Said the zen master.

[Jarqui]

35. Demographics for sex and age slightly favor Clinton on the Quinnipiac poll

- but pretty close

The Emerson poll - haven't got a clue how they arrived at their numbers - they don't provide much

[lunamagica]

36. K&R. YEEESSSS!

[Depaysement]

38. I'm curious

What exactly do you do for a living?

I'm not trying to be snarky. I'm genuinely curious. My guess would be education.

[workinclasszero]

43. BOOM!!!!

GO HILLARY!!!

[joeybee12]

44. good

The sooner Bernie goes away the better
I'd rather have him in the Senate doing nothing than in the white house doing nothing

[mainstreetonce]

47. This One's for the Girls

It's pantsuits time in
Iowa

[Gothmog]

49. Thanks for posting

[Tarc]

55. When some of the big DU Bernie supporters show up to knock a poll

You know they're getting nervous.

[NurseJackie]

56. I gotta feeling ....

I gotta feeling that tonight's gonna be a good night
That tonight's gonna be a good night
That tonight's gonna be a good, good night!

[RoccoR5955]

58. I wonder how many RepbuliCONs will vote

in the Democratic caucus, or if they can. If they can, than this poll is severely flawed.

[retrowire]

60. actually

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/iowa/release-detail?ReleaseID=2320

Bernie's in the lead!!!!

XD

[ChisolmTrailDem]

61. "Among DEMOCRAT primary voters"? Where's the "-ic" on the end of Democrat? nt

[DemocratSinceBirth]

66. Hanlon's Razor-sloppy editing.

Hanlon's Razor-never attribute to malice that which can best can be attributed to incompetence.

[ChisolmTrailDem]

68. So, you don't think there's a concerted effort to change our party name for us? nt

[DemocratSinceBirth]

70. On the part of those that don't like Democrats, yes.

But I would need to know more about the person who wrote the synopsis to believe he or she is part of that group. I have seen Democrats make that mistake.

[Attorney in Texas]

63. This is yet another robo-call poll. She and Trump do about 8% better in robo-call polls than they do

in polls conducted according to every other accepted methodology.

Here is the aggregation of all robo-call polls (including today's):



Looks like Clinton has an 8% lead.

Here is an aggregation of all the accepted methodology polls where data is gathered by live landline and cell phone polling (e.g., Quinnipiac, Des Moines Register/Bloomberg/Selzer, NBC/WSJ/Marist, Monmouth University, ARG, Iowa State/WHO-HD, FOX, CNN, Loras College, Mason-Dixon/AARP, NBC/Marist, Suffolk/USA Today, Suffolk):



Looks like a dead heat with Sanders coming into the caucus with a lot of momentum.

I'm not a huge fan of internet-based polling because it is not as reliable or as well accepted as live landline and cell phone polling, but it is much more reliable than robo-call polling. Here is an aggregation of the internet based polls (e.g., CBS/YouGov, Morning Consult):



This internet polling confirms the live landline and cell phone polling and refutes the robo-call polling.

Don't be confused by the junk polls out there, the Iowa caucuses are tied.

Also, bear in mind that attempting to poll a primary is much harder than polling a general election, and attempting to poll a caucus is much harder than polling a primary.

The aggregate of polling in Iowa in 2008 understated Obama's support by 7% and understated Edwards support by 4% (but pretty much nailed the ceiling for third-place Clinton's support).

This is the sprint to the finish. Let's finish strong!

[ViseGrip]

76. I'll stick with the Quinnipiac Poll out today...Sander above by 3

[workinclasszero]

78. Oh that's within the MOE is it not?

I got lectured endlessly by Bernie fans yesterday for that.

[pandr32]

79. Woo-hoo!

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

83. Because of the arrogance and racism of Bernie Sanders' fans, and his own unwillingness to deal with

the race issue properly, I am actually rooting for him to lose BIG TIME!!

[cali]

115. What a pile.

[kcjohn1]

104. I'm glad not to be on the side hoping for low turnout n/t

[workinclasszero]

110. This poll may turn out to be the most accurate

Hillary was surging right before the election!

[riversedge]

119. Give O'M's 4 pts to Sanders and yes you are correct.

[snooper2]

150. are you having a sad today or are you ignoring me?

or both? LOL

[Arazi]

116. Lol...I don't know who kicked this back up but it is good for a laugh eom

[Live and Learn]

117. What exactly does crow taste like? nt

[DemocratSinceBirth]

161. " What exactly does crow taste like? "

What exactly does crow taste like?


-Live and Learn

I don't know. Do you think it tastes something like this?



http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/02/politics/new-hampshire-primary-2016/index.html


Thank you in advance.


With all due respect,

DemocratSinceBirth

[Number23]

171. Why are people in this thread crowing because their candidate LOST?

Oh my God! A poll said that Hillary would get 51% and she only got 50%!

SERIOUSLY

[DemocratSinceBirth]

173. The Lakers beat the Timberwolves 119-115 last night. It was a virtual tie!

[bvar22]

118. I'll give this a kick too....

..for the delicious Schadenfreude.

[JudyM]

124. ^^this^^

[thereismore]

127. Let's kick this up a bit. What happened to her big lead yesterday?

Oh, caucuses happened.

[Art_from_Ark]

160. Kickety-kick

Hillary by 9%!
For the 1%!

[cherokeeprogressive]

132. kickety!

[dana_b]

138. sure! Why not?? n/t

[Arugula Latte]

147. Yeah, not so much.

[ljm2002]

154. If I pile on with the schadenfreude...

...does that make me a bad person?

[thesquanderer]

156. Wow, this one didn't even get it within the margin of error

and it was conduducted Jan 29 through 31, so right down to the wire.

Okay, it's hard to tell precisely since actual individual votes are not reported, but there should be some reasonable correlation (or all the polls would have been worthless), and this one was pretty far off.

The same poll gave Iowa to Trump on the Republican side, and way underestimated Carson.

One can argue about whether it was a good day or a bad day for Hillary, but I think most can agree, it was a bad day for Emerson College!

[reformist2]

157. Add Emerson to Gravis and PPP onto the "questionable poll" list.

If they mess up NH as well (off by 6 points or more), they should be considered unreliable.