Nate Silver is not high on Bernie's chances of winning the Nomination

...so I am not overly concerned with your opinion.

Chance of Cruz winning Iowa - 48%. Chance of Trump winning Iowa - 43%. So it is real close.

By the way, he is also projecting Hillary as the favorite in Iowa over Bernie with an 80% chance of winning to Bernie's 20%. Not so close.

Let's see how Nate does on those projections; we are only a week away.

Jindal was supposed to have a good chance in Iowa. And Trump was supposed to immediately crash and burn. I've seen quite enough from 538 this primary to evaluate their accuracy. It's piss poor.

you will find he is no better at this than anyone else. Its like my meteorologist. I have a window too.

last year. He pretty much stated that no way would Trump be their nominee. Now look at how that prognosis turned out

in Nate Silver.

on the UK and Canada elections.

I really liked you and thought you were really smart until you started to say things I don't like. What caused you to become so stupid and unlikable?

Regards,

Bernie Warrior, 18th Internet Battalion

cc: Paul Krugman, Ezra Klein

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/jim-webb-would-make-a-good-anti-clinton-in-2016/
http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2016/01/nate_silver_said_donald_trump_had_no_shot_where_did_he_go_wrong.html

The second assumes facts not in evidence. There has not yet been a Republican caucus nor primary. Silver has consistently said that Trump has an extremely neglible chance of being the Republican nominee. He is absolutely correct.

That said, Silver is not infallible. But "laughably wrong"?

And Trump is clearly doing much better than Nate Silver thought possible.

Had I intended it to be for Harry Enten it would have begun "Dear Harry Enten,".

Trump may be doing "better" than Silver's initial prognosis, but he remains an extremely long shot. Has Silver changed his long-term outlook? No. That's not "laughably wrong" - it's adjusting for time.

Still the best in the game. Even when he says something you don't like. (See above.)

all I remember is once.

He's a clueless as she is as you seem to be

He was right about the outcome of the 2008 American presidential election in 49 of the 50 states, making a name for himself as a statistician of note. In 2012, he got all 50 states right, cementing his status.

There's a reason why hehe is so well-known.

I thought this was interesting:

2008 Presidential Election

Prediction: Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) will win comfortably over Sen. John McCain (R-AZ).

Outcome: Obama won big.

In the forecast that put him on the political map, Silver applied the statistical analysis that made him a hero to baseball fanatics during his career to horse-race politics in predicting a resounding victory for Obama in 2008.

Silver correctly forecasted the outcome in 49 out of 50 states in the presidential race that year. He only whiffed on Indiana, a traditional Republican stronghold that Obama improbably carried. Silver's analysis in the 2008 election cycle vaulted him to prominence, showing off his number crunching on television with the likes of Stephen Colbert and Dan Rather during the campaign. Two years later, he moved his FiveThirtyEight blog over to the New York Times.

—

2013 College Football Championship

Prediction: Notre Dame will beat the spread against Alabama in the 2013 BCS National Championship Game.

Outcome: Alabama won in a landslide 42-14.

On Jan. 7, the day of the big game, Silver published an extensive breakdown of the matchup between the two college football powerhouses. Along with the article, Silver appeared in a video in which he said that, although he isn't paid to dispense gambling advice, "Notre Dame might almost be a good pick against the spread," which most oddsmakers placed at 10 points in favor of Alabama.

In his write-up, Silver suggested that the "game should be remembered as a classic" if "Notre Dame is able to keep pace with Alabama." They couldn't, and Alabama had essentially sealed the title by the second quarter.

—

2013 College Basketball Tournament

Prediction: Louisville, Florida, Indiana and Gonzaga will advance to the NCAA Tournament's Final Four.

Outcome: Of the four predictions, only Louisville was right.

Silver's pre-tournament analysis gave eventual champion Louisville the best chance of cutting down the nets, but he was failed by his other three Final Four picks. Gonzaga, Silver's pick to emerge from the West region, was bounced in the second round. The team that upset them, Wichita State, made an improbable run to the Final Four, despite Silver giving them a mere 1.3 percent chance of advancing that far.

Silver's other two Final Four teams fared better, but still fell short of the final weekend. Indiana was two wins short of making it to the Final Four, while Florida fell only one win short.

—

2010 Midterm Elections

Prediction: Republicans will pick up 54-55 seats in taking back the U.S. House; Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) will be unseated.

Outcome: The GOP gained 63 House seats; Reid survived in Nevada

Silver was rightly high on the GOP's prospects to take back control of the House of Representatives in 2010, writing in his final forecast that the party was poised to gain 54-55 seats in the chamber. Republicans ended up pulling in what was the largest midterm gain for since World War II.

But Silver may have been too bullish on the Republicans' chances of taking back control of the Senate. His forecast made Republicans Ken Buck and Sharron Angle the clear favorites in Colorado and Nevada respectively. Buck was ultimately nipped by Sen. Michael Bennet (D-CO), while Majority Leader Harry Reid won with breathing room over Angle.

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/nate-silver-s-seven-most-memorable-predictions

---

2013 Academy Awards


Prediction: 'Argo' for Best Picture; Daniel Day-Lewis for Best Actor; Jennifer Lawrence for Best Actress; Steven Spielberg for Best Director

Outcome: He got three of four right.

Silver's new job will reportedly include a spot on ABC's coverage of the Academy Awards. In something of a foreshadowing of this role, Silver took a stab at the 2013 Oscars, correctly predicting three out of the four major categories using a model that took into account 16 other awards leading up to the Academy Awards. Silver's pick for Best Director was his lone miss, with director Ang Lee taking the prize.

---
2013 NFL Playoffs And Super Bowl

Prediction: Before playoffs, he picked the Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots to advance to the Super Bowl. Before the game he picked the San Francisco 49ers to win the championship.

Outcome: None of those things happened.

Before the NFL playoffs kicked off earlier this year, Silver picked a bi-coastal clash in the Super Bowl, with the Seattle Seahawks emerging from the NFC and the New England Patriots coming out of the AFC. The game ultimately pitted a West Coast squad against an East Coast team, but not the matchup Silver envisioned.

Hoping to redeem himself before the Super Bowl, Silver pegged the San Francisco 49ers as the favorites over the Baltimore Ravens. In a classic game, the 49ers fell five yards short of claiming the title -- and of giving Silver more bragging rights.
—

2012 Presidential Election

Prediction: Obama, the consistent favorite, will win in an electoral college landslide.

Outcome: Obama held consistent leads in the polls en route to an electoral college landslide.

If the 2008 election was Silver's "Meet The Beatles!," then 2012 was his "Revolver." It was during the most recent cycle that Silver asserted himself as both an authority of polling analysis and a seminal figure in American political coverage.

His consistently favorable forecasts for Obama drew the ire of many on the right who insisted that Silver had a bias against Mitt Romney. But he was ultimately vindicated on Election Day and even improved upon his stellar showing in 2008, correctly forecasting the electoral college outcome in all 50 states.

When you take into account the delegate math, the odds are very fair.

Why is it so huge? 907 kb

And next time you see Nate, tell him I said he needs to quit whoring for the establishment.

It is the Japanese symbol for "Patience", a trait that comes in very handy here on DU.

Nate is one of the top statisticians in the country. Statisticians don't care about candidates; they only care only about numbers. Numbers don't care who will win and who will lose. They are inanimate and totally impartial. It's hard to like or hate numbers, they just are what they are.

I bet if Nate were projecting Bernie as the eventual winner, you would be saying very nice things about him. Apparently if you are a Sanders supporter, if you don't like the message, you attack the messenger.

He's a lifelong numbers geek.

What did he do to change that?

You should print it out and hold it tight.

More proof that Sanders are dreamers rather realists. When given a 5% of winning by one of the nation's top statisticians the die hard Sanders supporters respond by shouting: Bernie! Bernie! Bernie! With people like us behind him, he can't lose!!!

How did they take Silver's prediction that Trump would crash and burn when he entered the race. They must have been devastated when that happened.

Chance of Cruz winning Iowa 48%. Chance of Trump winning Iowa 43% So it is real close.

By the way, he is also projecting Hillary as the favorite in Iowa over Bernie with an 80% chance of winning to Bernie's 20% Not so close.

Let's see how Nate does on those projections

He predicts based on what the polls are showing right now because the the poll respondents are asked: "How would you vote today"

Obviously his projections grow more accurate the closer we get to the event projected. Based on Nate's projections only a week out from the Iowa caucuses, Bernie is in trouble because Nate has Hillary with an 80% chance of winning in Iowa with Bernie having the remaining 20%. Those odds could change with the publication of additional Iowa polls, but I personally like those odds, don't you?

An enemy of The People.