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Mon Jan 25, 2016, 03:49 PM

First Read-Clinton's geographical advantage in Iowa

Caucuses are strange animals. I ran my precinct caucus in 2008. The key element in a caucus is not the number of votes but the number of delegates awarded. Here the fact that Sanders support is concentrated in three college towns will hurt him as to delegate allocation http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/first-read-get-ready-long-fight-democratic-nod-n503696

Staying with the Clinton-vs.-Sanders contest, MSNBC's Alex Seitz-Wald makes a very smart point: Geography likely gives Clinton a big advantage in Iowa. Why? "Iowa is a caucus not a primary. That means a supporter in one place is not necessary as valuable as a supporter in another place... Take the university towns: More than a quarter 27 percent of Sanders supporters come from just three counties of Iowa's 99, according to the Register poll, each home to one of the state's largest universities. But those three counties award only 12 percent of the total 1401 delegates at stake statewide. 'He's setting the world on fire on the college campuses,' [Iowa Dem strategist Jeff] Link explained. 'That's great if you're in a primary, but it's not as much if you're in a caucus.'" If Clinton wins Iowa, this will DEFINITELY be one of the reasons why. But don't discount Sanders or his operation at all.

While Sanders may do well in the counties with large student populations, those counties have fewer delegates.
This is the DU member formerly known as Gothmog.

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Arrow 16 replies Author Time Post
Reply First Read-Clinton's geographical advantage in Iowa (Original post)
Gothmog Jan 2016 OP
Motown_Johnny Jan 2016 #1
Gothmog Jan 2016 #5
Motown_Johnny Jan 2016 #6
Dawson Leery Jan 2016 #2
KingFlorez Jan 2016 #3
Gothmog Jan 2016 #4
Motown_Johnny Jan 2016 #7
Gothmog Jan 2016 #10
Motown_Johnny Jan 2016 #11
Hortensis Jan 2016 #12
Hortensis Jan 2016 #8
Gothmog Jan 2016 #13
Iliyah Jan 2016 #9
wildeyed Jan 2016 #14
StevieM Jan 2016 #15
Gothmog Jan 2016 #16

Response to Gothmog (Original post)

Mon Jan 25, 2016, 03:53 PM

1. Agreed.

 

Which is why the Sanders' campaign has rented every van they could get a hold of and will be transporting college students home to caucus.


It is an uphill battle for Sanders. We all know that. It is hoped that his supporters are more willing to undergo the caucus process simply because they are more enthusiastic about his candidacy.

Only time will tell.


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Response to Motown_Johnny (Reply #1)

Mon Jan 25, 2016, 03:59 PM

5. We will see if this works

Most students have class on Monday or Tuesday http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/how-geography-favors-hillary-clinton-iowa-n503451

In 2008, the caucuses were held on Jan. 3, when most college students were home on winter break. That meant that Obama's army of young supporters could caucus at their parents' homes all over the state, and not waste their support in Johnson or Story counties, home to the University of Iowa and Iowa State University, respectively.

The Sanders campaign is working to encourage college students to return home to caucus, and helping to arrange travel. But it's a big organizational lift and asking a lot of a demographic that has historically already been reluctant to turn out. The caucuses are on a Monday night, so students will have classes on the day of the caucuses and the next morning.

"I still think HRC by 5 in Iowa," Mitch Stewart, who was Obama's director of field operations for the Iowa Caucuses in 2008 and now backs Clinton, said in a tweet Saturday.

It takes a great deal of effort to get someone to go to a caucus in the first place and now you want to bus them across the state on a school night. We will see if this works
This is the DU member formerly known as Gothmog.

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Response to Gothmog (Reply #5)

Mon Jan 25, 2016, 04:02 PM

6. Not gonna be easy. No doubt about it.

 

Back in '08 the caucus was during winter break. The students were already home.

If the Sanders campaign really does pull this off, it will be a huge statement. Not just that he could win Iowa, but that his organization can make this heavy lift.


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Response to Gothmog (Original post)

Mon Jan 25, 2016, 03:53 PM

2. kick

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Response to Gothmog (Original post)

Mon Jan 25, 2016, 03:56 PM

3. Geography tends to be very important in this sort of race

Clinton has a decent ground game and that will be incredibly helpful to her.

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Response to Gothmog (Original post)

Mon Jan 25, 2016, 03:57 PM

4. Sanders would need to win 70 percent of Iowa's delegates...to even "be on track" to stay competitive

According to one of the experts for the Cook Report, Sanders needs to win big in Iowa to have a chance http://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/sanders-needs-more-than-a-win-in-iowa-to-beat-clinton

As David Wasserman wrote in the Cook Political Report last week, "98 percent of pledged Democratic delegates will come from states with lower shares of liberal whites than Iowa and New Hampshire." That is a big problem for Sanders who has yet to prove he can expand his base....

Yet, even then, delegate allocation is proportional, which means that Sanders would have to begin winning by major margins to make the race a serious contest.

Wasserman estimates that according to his models, Sanders would "need to win 70 percent of Iowa's delegates and 63 percent of New Hampshire's delegates" to even "be on track" to stay competitive with Clinton in later states where demographically speaking, Clinton has shown she has more support. And in a states like Florida and South Carolina, Clinton leads in recent polls by 36 points and 19 points, respectively.

"It is not merely the delegate process that favors Hillary, it is the voters. She has earned the loyalty and support of communities of color, women, the LGBTQ community, environmentalists, and other vital parts of the Democratic coalition," says Democratic strategist Paul Begala, a Clinton supporter. "Bernie's coalition - so far - is more narrow. It is impressive in its energy and its passion, but it is, I think, more narrow."

I have not seen any projections or polls that show that Sanders being close to these numbers.
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Response to Gothmog (Reply #4)

Mon Jan 25, 2016, 04:04 PM

7. I disagree with the premise.

 

Bernie just needs to show that Hillary is beatable. If he wins, even marginally, it is enough. He should win big in New Hampshire (especially if he wins Iowa) and we have already seen things trending for him in Nevada, and to a lesser extent in South Carolina.

A win is a win. The delegate math comes much later.


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Response to Motown_Johnny (Reply #7)

Mon Jan 25, 2016, 04:34 PM

10. You are wrong

The purpose of the primary process is to become the nominee which means getting a majority of the delegates. Sanders has to win by large percentages if he wants to be competitive (and this is ignoring the lead that Clinton has in Super delegates). Sanders is only polling well in states with 90+% white voting populations and these states account for 2% of the available delegates.

If Sanders wants to be the nominee, he needs to have more delegates than Clinton.
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Response to Gothmog (Reply #10)

Mon Jan 25, 2016, 04:38 PM

11. You are not taking into account the effect of the early states on the later contests.

 


If the air of inevitability falls away from Hillary, so will her support. Many voters in the later states are not really paying attention yet. Hillary still gets a lot of name recognition support.

He can pick up delegates later. The first thing on the list to do is to prove Hillary is not the inevitable candidate.






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Response to Motown_Johnny (Reply #11)

Mon Jan 25, 2016, 05:27 PM

12. Motown, it'd not be nearly enough for "the air of inevitability"

to fall away from Hillary for her support to "fall away." That is wishful thinking.

Her delegates, of course, would go nowhere until Bernie was literally proving he was likely to be the nominee who could defeat the GOP candidate with a series of dramatic wins pointing to a likely electoral majority.

Even less so would her voter support fall away because of marginal victories. A truly misunderstood situation. A lot of Bernie supporters are newly engaged, others have voted before but are newly excited at what he promises, some are, frankly, fickle and uninformed people who swing in the breeze. And some are good citizens who are solidly committed.

In contrast, your suggestion that Hillary's supporters would "fall away" at the mere lack of "inevitability" suggests that you do not understand the more solid and wide-spread base of support that Hillary has compared to Bernie's.

Many of Bernie's supporters are not even yet registered to vote. He has a far more narrow base, and some blocks, such as the youth vote, are notorious for not bothering to vote (he's working on that!). Many of those turning out for Bernie's rallies and say they are excited by them have not actually decided on a candidate... Still.

Hillary's supporters in comparison are much more likely to intend to vote for HER, to be registered voters, to have voted before, and to intend to show up on polling day. As one, I can tell you the the notion that I would suddenly flit to another, suddenly more appealing candidate is ridiculous. When my candidate does badly, I make some guacamole, grab a glass of wine, and submerge my worries in Downton Abbey reruns. I don't change.

The good news is that, if somehow Bernie did win the nomination, Hillary's more solid blocks would in very large part become Bernie supporters for the general. For most of us, it's democracy versus plutofascism. I thought maybe I invented that word, but not quite, so how about plutocorporatoreligiofascism? All major forces we need to put back in their boxes in order to do our duty by our republic, and children, in any case.

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Response to Gothmog (Original post)

Mon Jan 25, 2016, 04:22 PM

8. Running a precinct caucus sounds fascinating.

I'd love to just SEE one and would be there for sure if I lived in a caucus state. I'm guessing those cars and buses Sanders volunteers are gathering will be pulling out from those college campuses. Fun party.

BTW, I read your "ballot draw" thread. Another worthwhile one. It happened to remind me of long ago now when "John Hancock" was elected to an all-expense-paid trip to DC; forget which state, somewhere, but his entire campaign was his name on the ballot.

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Response to Hortensis (Reply #8)

Mon Jan 25, 2016, 06:53 PM

13. My caucus started at 7PM and I was not done until 11 PM

That is a long and tiring process. I was still sad to see the Texas two step dropped this cycle.

The ballot draw process is fun. There are some people on the Democratic ballot for POTUS who I have never heard of
This is the DU member formerly known as Gothmog.

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Response to Gothmog (Original post)

Mon Jan 25, 2016, 04:28 PM

9. K & R

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Response to Gothmog (Original post)

Mon Jan 25, 2016, 07:43 PM

14. Caucuses mystify me.

Why do we do these anyway? What is the problem with just having a regular election? We should just do ranked preferential voting. Throw all the candidates out there, let the people pick their favorites from one to three and then add it all up. THAT would be some kind of revolution. Hmmmph.....



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Response to Gothmog (Original post)

Mon Jan 25, 2016, 08:00 PM

15. Speaking as a Hillary supporter, I don't agree that the point about delegates from college towns

matters very much. In other words, I don't think that Bernie will be hurt for the reasons that are being suggested.

The winner in Iowa is determined by who gets the highest percentage of the overall vote. It always has been.

Hillary got one more delegate than Edwards from Iowa in 2008 (based on Caucus night projections) but nobody doubted that she came in third.

In 1992 Bill Clinton suffered a devastating loss to Jerry Brown in Connecticut, when the race was thought to be locked up, even though he got more delegates.

In 2008 Hillary was the recognized winner of the Nevada Caucuses, by all major media outlets, even though Obama got more delegates.

I love Barack Obama and Rachel Maddow, but truthfully, they are the only major figures who believe (or believed) that Clinton didn't win Nevada.

If Bernie gets the highest percentage of the vote in Iowa he will be declared the winner.

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Response to StevieM (Reply #15)

Tue Jan 26, 2016, 12:26 AM

16. The key issue in the caucus is who gets the most delegates

The winner of the Democratic primary process will be the candidate who gets the most delegates and if Sanders gets fewer delegates, then he loses. According to one of the experts for the Cook Report, Sanders needs to win big in Iowa to have a chance http://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/sanders-needs-more-than-a-win-in-iowa-to-beat-clinton

As David Wasserman wrote in the Cook Political Report last week, "98 percent of pledged Democratic delegates will come from states with lower shares of liberal whites than Iowa and New Hampshire." That is a big problem for Sanders who has yet to prove he can expand his base....

Yet, even then, delegate allocation is proportional, which means that Sanders would have to begin winning by major margins to make the race a serious contest.

Wasserman estimates that according to his models, Sanders would "need to win 70 percent of Iowa's delegates and 63 percent of New Hampshire's delegates" to even "be on track" to stay competitive with Clinton in later states where demographically speaking, Clinton has shown she has more support. And in a states like Florida and South Carolina, Clinton leads in recent polls by 36 points and 19 points, respectively.

"It is not merely the delegate process that favors Hillary, it is the voters. She has earned the loyalty and support of communities of color, women, the LGBTQ community, environmentalists, and other vital parts of the Democratic coalition," says Democratic strategist Paul Begala, a Clinton supporter. "Bernie's coalition - so far - is more narrow. It is impressive in its energy and its passion, but it is, I think, more narrow."

I have not seen any projections or polls that show that Sanders being close to these numbers.
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