2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumWill the DNC Use Super-Delegates to Steal the Primary Election from Bernie Sanders?
Last edited Sat Jan 23, 2016, 03:01 PM - Edit history (1)
OpEdNews.com
January 21, 2016
By Benjamin Kall
After watching Sunday's Democratic debate I came away inspired to take a look into what it would take for Bernie Sanders to win the Democratic nomination.
In doing so, I came away with a sad picture of a party likely to commit election theft by the use of super delegates.
In the coming months we will be voting for a candidate.
As polls have been showing, Bernie Sanders is quickly gaining support, while Hillary, the presumed favorite, is losing her lead and, in some polls, already behind.
It really depends on who you ask, but there is definitely support for Bernie out there.
Is it enough to defeat Hillary in the Democratic Party is the real question that needs to be addressed.
The Democratic Party has a built-in system to eliminate popular candidates with the populace but not as favorable to party leaders by way of Super delegates.
Super Delegates carry just about 20 percent of the voting power in the nomination of a Democratic presidential candidate.
These Super Delegates do not have to answer to a voting public.
They do not have to follow what the people have voted and they can make a choice based solely on their personal discretion or relationship with the candidates.
Read more:
http://www.opednews.com/articles/Will-the-DNC-Use-Super-Del-by-Benjamin-Kall-Bernie-Sanders-2016-Presidential-Candidate_Delegates-160121-566.html
Thinkingabout
(30,058 posts)Hillary will have more delegates from the primaries than is needed to win.
Metric System
(6,048 posts)MeNMyVolt
(1,095 posts)I can picture Ann Margret singing Bye Bye Bernie.
restorefreedom
(12,655 posts)they can kiss their precious money grubbing party goodbye if they even TRY this.
oh, and goodbye ge as well, downtickets,....
if they go nuclear, they will destroy themselves as well as all of us...
Agschmid
(28,749 posts)Wellstone ruled
(34,661 posts)McGovern,Mondale need we say more why.
merrily
(45,251 posts)Ken Burch
(50,254 posts)McGovern lost big because the party regulars leadpiped him out of spite.
Mondale was the establishment choice, as was Dukakis. There were no magically superior candidates to their right who could havr donr better against Reagan or Bush.
Wellstone ruled
(34,661 posts)They thought they had the dam thing in the bag,and just putzed along. That was in the days of the Democratic Party thing of well it is his turn. And the rest was history,a real learning curve as to the power of Image making and total control of messaging.
Uncle Joe
(58,349 posts)by a large margin, turnout is critical to Bernie and the movement's success.
Thanks for the thread, red dog.
red dog 1
(27,792 posts)PFunk1
(185 posts)The larger the margin, the less likely they will use the SD's to give it to Hillary (unless they prefer a repug victory-then all bets are off). But it looks like Bernie is headed in that direction-gaining large margins that it.
Uncle Joe
(58,349 posts)Peace to you.
PatrickforO
(14,570 posts)If he wins by big margins, the superdelegates, many of whom are elected officials will do nothing.
BlueCaliDem
(15,438 posts)Uncle Joe
(58,349 posts)in Bernie's favor will continue to improve.
BlueCaliDem
(15,438 posts)daily by the media and Republicans. African Americans were outraged as they watched President Obama being vilified in the press and get the least favorable coverage than any Republican in 2011-12. Then Bernie goes on Ed Schultz and Thom Hartmann's shows and suggested that maybe it would be a good thing to primary the first Black American president.
They have not forgotten. YOU might have, and you might forgive him for it, but you can be sure they haven't and won't. Last Sunday, in South Carolina, we all got a taste of how unpopular Sanders is there. He got a tiny taste of the firewall that's sure to beat him after Iowa and NH.
Latino's will remember his no-vote on comprehensive immigration reform in 2007 that included an early version of the DREAMact. They'll remember Sierra Blanca. He won't win Nevada.
The numbers don't look good for Bernie in either South Carolina or Nevada, and I don't see any shift there. None.
Uncle Joe
(58,349 posts)see the light in regards to chained CPI; of social security and other programs which damages the most vulnerable
Bernie changed his mind about the matter a week later.
Hartmann got a very pro-Hillary call (Louise) that was looking to try and put Sanders down in a big way and brought up the primary challenger BS that Clinton herself repeated tonight in the debate. Go here to see how he responded to this caller, and noted that Hartmann in his response noted that Bernie was randomly responding to a caller on the topic of how Obama on his problems with chained CPI and Bernie saying that he thought perhaps Obama facing a primary challenger might get him to see the light of why that position was not something that people wanted, and took it back in the following week's show. Go here to this link and go to the 1:45:22 mark in the show video to hear the comments and Hartmann's response.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511024398
https://www.freespeech.org/video/thom-hartmann-program-january-11-2016
Regarding African Americans' views of Bernie.
Three Spanish Language publications in Nevada have just endorsed Bernie and his poll numbers are going up in that state as well.
NBC's new post-debate poll carries the blaring lede: "NBC Online Poll: Clinton Wins Debate, Re-energizes Core Backers." And indeed, it found a majority of Democrats thought Hillary won the debate and that she held a steady 14 point overall lead.
But below the headline there was a major shift in narrative.
A typical July poll found Hillary leading Bernie 73-3 among Hispanics. With findings like that, it's not surprising the media churned out story after story trumpeting Hillary's lock on America's Hispanic voters.
But according to this new NBC poll, that 70-point lead has now shrunk to 42-35, and with a 7.7% margin of error, this means Bernie and Hillary are in a current statistical tie among Hispanics.
Of course Nevada, where 30% of the population is Hispanic, is the third voting state:
(snip)
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251693874
Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders received the endorsement of three Spanish language publications Wednesday in his bid for the Democratic nomination. Ahora Latino Journal, El Reportero and Tú Revista Latina announced their support for Sanders in a Wednesday news release. The endorsements come just one day after former Las Vegas Assemblywoman Lucy Flores pledged for Sanders as well. El Reportero and Tú Revista Latina are Las Vegas publications while Ahora Latino Journal is based in Reno. Ahora publisher and editor Mario de la Rosa said he decided to support Sanders because he seems trustworthy.
His concern has always been for all people suffering from inequality and lack of opportunities, de la Rosa said. That is one of the great appeals to him. He sees all people just as humans. Thats why we support his policies.
~snip~
De la Rosa said once the Latino community hears Sanders message, theyll begin supporting him.
Once people start knowing and listening to Bernie Sanders, theyll see whats going on and theyll see very clearly, de la Rosa said. Hes really trying to fight for the middle class and the low-income class and for all the people that are suffering. Not just the 10 percent or the one percent.
cont'
http://www.rgj.com/story/news/politics/2016/01/20/three-spanish-language-publications-endorse-sanders/79075958/
http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511039216
BlueCaliDem
(15,438 posts)when all the propaganda and all the incidences that accumulate to exactly nothing in this big political contest for the White House won't be able to save Sanders' run for the White House.
Written by Selena Hill for Latin Post
Not only does Hillary Clinton have a strong lead in the 2016 Democratic presidential race, but a new poll shows that the front-runner has overwhelming support from people of color, while more white Democrats are leaning towards Bernie Sanders.
According to a NBC News poll released Tuesday, Clinton has a huge lead over Sanders with African Americans, 63 to 20 percent, and Hispanic voters, 54 percent to 33 percent. She also holds a 15-point lead over the Vermont senator among Democrats nationwide, with 52 percent of voters compared to his 37 percent. The poll, which was conducted from Jan. 4 to Jan. 10, shows former Maryland governor Martin O'Malley coming in with just 2 percent of the vote.
**snip**
Earlier this month, a Gravis Marketing poll conducted from Dec. 23 to Dec. 27, revealed that former Secretary of State Clinton had a 23-point lead over Sanders in Nevada -- a state where Latinos make up a large voting bloc. She received 50 percent of support among likely Democratic caucus goers, compared to Sanders, who received 27 percent.
After Iowa and NH comes South Carolina and...drum roll...Nevada.
Uncle Joe
(58,349 posts)Peace to you.
BlueCaliDem
(15,438 posts)Peace to you, too.
red dog 1
(27,792 posts)Empowerer
(3,900 posts)And you wonder why African Americans aren't "feeling the Bern?"
Uncle Joe
(58,349 posts)key words were political pressure.
2. Why do you believe a black President should be different than a white President when it comes to applying political pressure to obtain a stated goal in this case eliminating chained CPI which most damaged the vulnerable, and elderly.
One only needs to look to the Civil Rights Era to see a white President needing political pressure to pass civil rights.
As my post makes clear, Bernie had also changed his mind about applying political pressure via a primary challenge against President Obama within a week.
"I don't wonder why African Americans aren't the feeling the Bern" that's another false assumption on your part.
I'm convinced that ultimately most African Americans; will support Bernie for President as they come to learn about him, they're not a monolith engraved in stone.
While Hillary had major name recognition since the 90s, Bernie didn't, I have no doubt that's why Schultz's DNC scheduled so few debates at times when they would least likely be viewed, and also why the corporate media conglomerates blacked out Bernie for so long until his rising popularity left them with little choice but to cover him.
Empowerer
(3,900 posts)Of course, we're not a monolith - that's why some African Americans are supporting Sanders now while other support Clinton. But I think it's wrong to assume that black voters don't support Sanders because they don't know any better. Black voters are very knowledgeable and very savvy - it's very likely that most already have determined for whom they want to vote and the fact that the majority doesn't support Sanders is based on their own learned assessment of him, not ignorance.
FYI, I put "schooled" in quotes because I used it as slang, not to suggest that I was quoting you. But I realize that because I did quote you in the heading, it may have appeared that way. My apologies.
Uncle Joe
(58,349 posts)had much greater name recognition, First lady, in the 90s, Senator from one of the most populous states in the nation, primary opponent against now President Obama, Secretary of State, while being a two edged sword countless scandals have kept Hillary's name front and center in the American Peoples' psyche.
Bernie on the other the hand, while serving in government for even longer than Hillary, has represented a small, mostly white state, unless you're a political junkie, most people never heard of him before his campaign started.
Most Americans of all colors don't even tune in to politics until just a very few months or weeks before the primaries begin and as I stated in my previous post, Schwartz's DNC and the corporate media conglomerates blackout of Bernie have done their best to freeze the peoples' awareness of the candidates, trying to keep Hillary's name recognition advantage out front for as long as they could.
That's just beginning to change for the better thanks in large part to the people power of the Internet, we're slowly getting the word out about Bernie and his message despite the corporate media conglomerates resistance.
Having said that our democratic republic would be in much better shape now if the corporate media conglomerates; had focused more on serving the best interests of the American Nation/People as a whole versus their own narrow self-serving concerns.
Sancho
(9,067 posts)They also don't like some of Bernie's other proposals. In short, Sanders is Bernt Toast in states (like FL) where there are many more delegated. Hillary won't need the super delegates.
BlueCaliDem
(15,438 posts)I surmise it's why Bernie's trying to attract the young White vote and pull them from Trump. He's making zero inroads with young minority Millennials. And although a few are playing footsie with support for Bernie, in the end they'll turn out overwhelmingly for Hillary Clinton, just as they had waffled a little with President Obama but ultimately cast their vote for him in both 2008 and 2012 by over 70%.
closeupready
(29,503 posts)That will only sharpen opposition to her, playing to the perception that the Establishment has become so corrupt, it's actually willing to short-circuit democracy itself, if it serves their selfish ambitions.
CorporatistNation
(2,546 posts)This Is "THE ESTABLISHMENT" that everyone is talking about... Already talking sliding Biden in there if Hillary shoots cats eyes in Iowa and NH! The corruption is what happens in a Corporatist Nation! Such a disaster if it were to occur may result in the cleansing of the American BIGMONEY Political System that is so sorely needed.
PatrickforO
(14,570 posts)Because its natural tendency is toward monopoly.
daleanime
(17,796 posts)emsimon33
(3,128 posts)and it will be the end of the Democratic Party.
daleanime
(17,796 posts)over a President Sanders.
emsimon33
(3,128 posts)Such as DWS who should not only be fired by replaced with a real Democrat!
red dog 1
(27,792 posts)and don't hold your breath waiting for that to happen.
I wish DWS would just resign as Chair of the DNC, she is too divisive.
Whether the Democratic nominee is Hillary or Bernie, the party cannot be "split" like it was in 1984, when Mondale got the nomination, despite losing ALL the primary elections west of the Mississippi to Gary Hart; and then, instead of picking Hart as his running mate (which would have "united" the party), Mondale picked Geraldine Ferraro, and Reagan easily won reelection.
We can't let that happen again.
If Hillary wins the nomination, I hope she chooses Bernie as her running mate; and, conversely, if Bernie wins, I hope he chooses Hillary as his running mate.
A divided Democratic Party will not be able to defeat the GOP nominee, regardless of who that person is.
Response to red dog 1 (Reply #75)
Post removed
peacebird
(14,195 posts)Bernie as VP, to attend a few functions and funerals? What a classic, monumental waste that would be.
And IF Hillary loses, and Bernie prevails the very last thing his administration would need is Hillary as VP.
red dog 1
(27,792 posts)or vote for an Independent such as Bloomberg (If he decides to run)
Like I said, a divided Democratic Party will NOT win in November.
As far as "IF Hillary loses", don't you think asking her to be Sanders' VP would unite the party?
If Sanders does win the nomination, will Hillary's supporters "sit out the election"?
(I would like to see a Sanders/Warren ticket myself; but I doubt if that will ever happen).
peacebird
(14,195 posts)Sanders supporters would see it as Hillary triangulating and trying to silence Bernie. Would anyone actually believe she would listen to him? No.
Oh, and I will NEVER vote for Hillary. I will write in Sanders if she wins the primary.
red dog 1
(27,792 posts)(Just curious)
peacebird
(14,195 posts)PowerToThePeople
(9,610 posts)When he won the popular vote.
I do not think they will steal it.
But, if they did, it would prove to me that this nation's government is a totalitarian state and I will hasten my plans to leave to a better nation.
merrily
(45,251 posts)I firmly believe that, in 2008, Obama was the pick of the Dem Party's powerful. That first dawned on me when I heard about Reid's describing him as articulate and so forth. I thought, to whom was Reid trying to sell Obama with that riff?
Daschle claimed he was one of the people who convinced Obama to run in 2008 because Obama thought he would need more time in the Senate under his belt. It came out that Reid repeatedly asked Obama to run and so on. The media sure was not in the bag for Hillary over Obama in 2007-08, the way they have been in the bag for Hillary over Sanders. Also, Obama had been a lifelong Democrat and Obama was selling hope and change (from Bushco), not a revolution. The New Democrat wing of the Democratic Party, which "houses" most of the Super Delegates, has a lot to lose going forward if Bernie is the nominee.
Warren Stupidity
(48,181 posts)after it became clear that she would not have a majority of the primary delegates. I see no reason why she would not do it again and I suspect the party establishment would go along.
SheilaT
(23,156 posts)end up voting with the majority of delegates. In the relatively short time they've been around, they have never made a difference in the nomination.
I don't understand why so many people here are freaking out about the superdelegates.
mythology
(9,527 posts)need to believe in silly conspiracy theories.
merrily
(45,251 posts)what the super delegates will do.
SheilaT
(23,156 posts)They'll end up supporting the candidate that most voters want. That's what they do.
merrily
(45,251 posts)necessarily in this case.
synergie
(1,901 posts)Vincardog
(20,234 posts)merrily
(45,251 posts)Vincardog
(20,234 posts)pinebox
(5,761 posts)and it would mean people would leave the Democratic party in droves. As it is, people are already leaving but this would really give millions a big boost to no longer stick around.
PatrickforO
(14,570 posts)But there's more to it. If they do this and then Clinton wins the WH, this nation will be simmering toward a pitchfork style revolution. I give it maybe a decade unless we get a real populist in there to FORCE the PTB to throw us just a few bones - a 21st century New Deal. See, the oligarchs are myopic, because they don't understand that if they just loosen up a TINY BIT - single payer, stronger Social Security, MUCH cheaper college - things that can encourage social mobility and a bigger, stronger middle class, they can continue to fleece us for the next 75 years. Seriously, they'll make plenty of money.
But, alas, they just want a LITTLE more, and that's probably gonna be the end of them. Fortunately I'm getting old so I'll probably have kicked off by the time it happens because who wants to live through shit like that? But my kids and grandchildren - they will live it. And I'm sorry for that. I'm sorry this world has to be polluted by a few greedy fucks when it COULD be a really good place for everyone instead of a shithole for most.
senz
(11,945 posts)After all, they've already done so much for her.
in_cog_ni_to
(41,600 posts)Political REVOLUTION - THE MOVEMENT HAS ALREADY BEGUN. They can't stop it.
PEACE
LOVE
BERNIE
sadoldgirl
(3,431 posts)that Bernie is not electable, and that the voters were fooled
by him. They may not care about a tremendous loss to the
party or that the repugs would win.
TPTB will insist on the status quo, then later blame the loss
on those "idiots with pony dreams",who refused to see
"reality". Of course should this happen, since most super
delegates sit in Congress or in state government, these
people might lose their jobs as well.
Question is: Do they really care? I doubt it by now.
daleanime
(17,796 posts)they definitely would prefer a republican before Bernie.
emulatorloo
(44,116 posts)LongTomH
(8,636 posts)Bernie supporters will leave the conference hall in droves and take to the streets, and the police will brutalize them, just as in '68.
The result: a massive stay-at-home vote and a loss to the GOP.
And....NO! I'm NOT telling people not to vote for Hillary if she wins. I'll try to persuade my friends to vote for Hillary as the lesser of evils.
As one of my liberal friends stated: "You vote for the lesser of two evils, and you get less evil."
Another of my liberal friends replied: "Yes, but you still get evil!"
PatrickforO
(14,570 posts)You work your fingers to the bone and what do you have?
Bony fingers!
You're right though.
BlueCaliDem
(15,438 posts)REVOLUSHEEEON!
redstateblues
(10,565 posts)red dog 1
(27,792 posts)Samantha
(9,314 posts)The above article might have been posted here before. If so, I did not see it. Here are a couple of paragraphs:
HOW WILL BERNIE OVERCOME THE SUPERDELEGATE PROBLEM:
We like to think that the Democratic primary is all about one Democrat, one vote. But in fact certain leaders of the Democratic party get 6,650 votes to our one. These few people alone make up 38% of the votes needed to clinch the Democratic nomination.
* * *
So, to insure that those in power stay in power, the concept of the "Superdelegate" was developed. These would be the faithful, party leaders whom, after all, should have (in their own view) final say over who the nominee is. These 718 Superdelegates have, collectively, 38% of the votes necessary to get the nomination. So a wild card candidate, say a Bernie Sanders, if they could not capture a significant number of these leading Democrats, would have virtually no chance of getting such a huge majority of the "one person, one vote" delegates that they could take the nomination against the will of the party faithful.
* * *
So if these Democratic leaders, the party faithful, who hold so many of the cards, have already cast their lots with Clinton, can Sanders possibly win the nomination, no matter how much Democratic voters prefer him? Can the Superdelegates be convinced to throw their support to him, or is he too far outside the party? Will the party force Clinton on us as the nominee even if Sanders gets a large majority of the popular vote in the primary?
End of quoted material.
A note of interest: Only the Democrats have Superdelegates; the Republicans do not (according to another article I read....)
My question: Is this Constitutional? Maybe Bernie needs to consult a Constitutional lawyer.
I agree that if Superdelegates in the Democratic party try to force a candidate to become the nominee who did not win the majority in the primary, the resulting consequence of that will be extremely detrimental to the party itself.
Sam
Jim Lane
(11,175 posts)The term "superdelegate" is more commonly used only in the Democratic Party. If you put terminology aside, the substantive question is whether Republicans have some convention delegates who are not chosen through presidential primaries or caucuses, but who are instead seated automatically and are therefore free to vote for any candidate regardless of the will of the voters. The answer to that question is: Yes, the Republicans have them, but not as many as the Democrats.
Oversimplifying somewhat: Democratic superdelegates are Democratic National Committee members plus high-ranking elected officials (all Democratic Senators, Congressmembers, and Governors). On the Republican side, the superdelegates (or whatever you want to call them) are just the Republican National Committee members and state party chairs. The result is that such delegates are less of a factor in the GOP (i.e., a smaller percentage of the delegates to the national convention).
merrily
(45,251 posts)what the internal working of the Republican Party has to do with this thread?
Jim Lane
(11,175 posts)So it was topic drift. So sue me. Or better yet, her.
merrily
(45,251 posts)the DNC had.
I don't want to sue either of you, so sue me!
Samantha
(9,314 posts)It was during that experiment, in 1976, that Washington outsider Jimmy Carter won the nomination against the wishes of many Democratic party leaders. High-ranking Democrats were determined to never again have to sit back and look on helplessly as a candidate outside the control of the established political machinery became their partys duly elected candidate. So superdelegates were introduced in 1982 and implemented two years later. The Republican party, by the way, has no superdelegates.
I have been familiar with the term superdelegates and who it generally includes for a very long time. But that statement that the Republican party has none startled me.
I did not overlook your statement saying the Republican party has the equivalent but they are just not called superdelegates.
My question is, regardless of what terminology is used to describe these people, is this Constitutional? I think only a Constitutional lawyer can answer that, and I believe Sanders should ask the question now. I have a very specific reason for focusing on that very simple question.
Sam
Jim Lane
(11,175 posts)The parties don't have an unlimited right to set their own rules. That was settled in Smith v. Allwright, 321 U.S. 649 (1944), overturning a "white primary". This was a method of disenfranchising blacks in the Jim Crow era. The Fifteenth Amendment said that blacks couldn't be denied the right to vote on account of race. Texas said that the Democratic Party was a private organization and could do whatever it wanted in its primary, including restricting the vote to whites, as long as blacks could vote in the general election -- a general election that was in practice meaningless, because the Democratic nominee almost always won. To Texas's argument that there was therefore no state action, the Supreme Court answered:
The privilege of membership in a party may be, as this Court said in Grovey v. Townsend, 295 U. S. 45, 295 U. S. 55, no concern of a state. But when, as here, that privilege is also the essential qualification for voting in a primary to select nominees for a general election, the state makes the action of the party the action of the state.
The decision relied heavily on the Fifteenth Amendment. Nevertheless, I suspect that the result would be the same if, for example, even without an ERA in the Constitution, a party tried to exclude women from voting in a primary.
What would probably save the superdelegate rule is that there's no such discrimination. The elected officials who are superdelegates attained that status through elections for public office in which everyone could participate. The party leaders' mandate is more indirect. What's most common, I think, is that the people (possibly only registered party members) elect local party leaders, who then elect the leaders higher up the chain. Of course, few people pay attention to the vote for party leadership positions. They could, though. Blacks and women (and whites and men) and any other group that might claim unconstitutional discrimination have an equal right to participate in the internal party processes that produce these superdelegates.
ETA: I am a lawyer but my practice almost never involves issues under the Constitution or concerning election law.
red dog 1
(27,792 posts)Renew Deal
(81,855 posts)Jim Lane
(11,175 posts)zappaman
(20,606 posts)BlueCaliDem
(15,438 posts)sadoldgirl
(3,431 posts)They may pledge a friendly support in the beginning,
but they can switch, as happened with Obama.
merrily
(45,251 posts)BlueCaliDem
(15,438 posts)one she won't make again. Bernie is falling into that same trap. He will NOT win the nom.
He can't get any minority group to "feel the Bern". Angry White male/female votes aren't going to cut it since most of them vote Republican anyway.
Maybe he'll win a few strays among minorities here and there, but in the end, not enough to give him what he needs in order to overcome Hillary Clinton. Minorities will NOT vote for the guy who's been pro-gun, anti-Obama (<--especially this one), and anti-immigration (until he decided to run for president, that is).
Dems to Win
(2,161 posts)The supes will follow the popular vote. Even if they are currently endorsing Hillary, they'll switch if Bernie gets the votes. To do otherwise would kill any chance of victory in November.
Not to worry.
Live and Learn
(12,769 posts)But we are as hell bent on making sure they don't and we will prevail.
99Forever
(14,524 posts)The blowback will destroy the Democratic Party.
KittyWampus
(55,894 posts)It's how politics work.
If you don't like, Sanders doesn't like it, you and he should have joined the party and worked to change it.
What a bunch of thin-skinned, self-absorbed whiners.
Tanuki
(14,918 posts)cheated out of the presidency already by evil superdelegates, or somebody. All that free-floating hostility, looking for the latest target, real or imagined.
Kentonio
(4,377 posts)You really don't know the party membership very well.
Well stated!