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Wed Sep 19, 2012, 01:30 PM

Pew National Poll: Obama leads 51-43 among likely voters

Pew is one of the best:

Obama’s overall advantage – he leads 51% to 42% among registered voters – does not narrow significantly when looking only at those most likely to vote. Among 2,192 likely voters, Obama leads Romney, 51% to 43%.

http://www.people-press.org/2012/09/19/obama-ahead-with-stronger-support-better-image-and-lead-on-most-issues/

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Reply Pew National Poll: Obama leads 51-43 among likely voters (Original post)
WI_DEM Sep 2012 OP
WI_DEM Sep 2012 #1
Liberal_Stalwart71 Sep 2012 #2
WI_DEM Sep 2012 #3
JRLeft Sep 2012 #4
Liberal_Stalwart71 Sep 2012 #5
Thrill Sep 2012 #6

Response to WI_DEM (Original post)

Wed Sep 19, 2012, 01:34 PM

1. Here are some key stats:

Overall interest in the 2012 election is not as high as it was at this point in the 2008 campaign, with a similar decline among both Democrats and Republicans. But the dropoff in engagement is most noticeable among younger Americans. Just 48% of voters younger than 30 have given a lot of thought to the 2012 election, down from 65% at this point four years ago. The share of young people who say they are closely following election news is down by about half (from 35% to 18%).

By contrast, there has been no falloff in engagement among African American voters. Engagement among black voters, which was higher in September 2008 than in previous elections dating to 1992, remains just as high going into the final weeks of the 2012 campaign.

The survey finds that overall patterns of voter support for Obama and Romney have changed little over the course of the campaign. Obama holds a 56% to 37% lead among women registered voters, but only runs about even among men (47% Romney, 46% Obama). Voters younger than 30 continue to support Obama by a wide margin (59% to 33%). Voters 30 to 49 favor Obama by a 52% to 41% margin; older voters are more evenly divided.

Romney draws broad support from white evangelical Protestants. Race and ethnicity remain key correlates of candidate support: 92% of black voters support Obama, as do 69% of Latinos, compared with 43% of white non-Hispanics. Among whites, Romney runs better among white men and white working class voters than among women and white college graduates.

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Response to WI_DEM (Original post)

Wed Sep 19, 2012, 01:35 PM

2. I'm still concerned about the possible rope-a-dope strategy. Does the Corporate Media

 

and the Republicans want us to think the election is in the bag, then come out in the end with hordes of money and GOTV while we're standing mouths agape?

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Response to Liberal_Stalwart71 (Reply #2)

Wed Sep 19, 2012, 01:42 PM

3. the media keeps still keeps telling us its a toss up...

In 2008, Most of the final polls had Obama up by 5-11 points and it didn't hurt turn-out.

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Response to Liberal_Stalwart71 (Reply #2)

Wed Sep 19, 2012, 01:43 PM

4. Most people do not follow these polls or politics.

 

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Response to JRLeft (Reply #4)

Wed Sep 19, 2012, 02:17 PM

5. Yeah, sure. I agree, But that wasn't my question. I think we're being suckered by

 

the Republicans and Mitt Romney. At least, that's my conspiracy theory. I think this is feigned outrage against Romney on the right. Should he improve, or they steal the election, they can come back and use this period thwart claims of fraud: "We thought Romney was going to lose, but he's the Comeback Kid."

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Response to WI_DEM (Original post)

Wed Sep 19, 2012, 03:03 PM

6. This is likely where it really is

without the MSM insisting on it being a horse race

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