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Mon Jan 19, 2015, 03:40 AM

 

Super Bowl betting

During this past week, I read the prediction that, if the two favorites (Seattle and New England) won their conference championships, then the line on the Super Bowl would be Seattle by 2 or 3.

On Sunday, the line did indeed open at Seattle -2.5, but heavy action on the Patriots pushed it to pick 'em. Obviously, bettors were impressed with the way the Patriots demolished the Colts:

“From the beginning of time, people bet what they see last,” said veteran bookmaker Nick Bogdanovich, the William Hill US Director of Trading. “Tonight, that was New England looking really good, and Seattle the luckiest team in the world to be there.”


(from "Early money favors New England over Seattle; line quickly adjusted to pick ’em for Super Bowl 49" in the Las Vegas Sun)

What really surprises me is that the over/under is 48.5. I admit I don't know much about totals betting. Still, the Patriots almost covered that number all by themselves, and the Seahawks demonstrated incredible offensive power in mounting their historic comeback. I thought the over/under would be in the low 50's.

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Arrow 5 replies Author Time Post
Reply Super Bowl betting (Original post)
Jim Lane Jan 2015 OP
Laura PourMeADrink Jan 2015 #1
Jim Lane Jan 2015 #2
Laura PourMeADrink Jan 2015 #4
Laura PourMeADrink Jan 2015 #5
LiberalFighter Jan 2015 #3

Response to Jim Lane (Original post)

Wed Jan 21, 2015, 09:13 AM

1. The overs sounds like a good bet. Maybe it's because they think

the Seahawk's defense is better than GB's?

We spent some time betting in Vegas during college football season and it seemed like the overs were always the way to go.

What do you think about the deflating of the footballs? When this first came out people were
saying it hurt a team - ball weighs less - won't travel as far. Now they are saying it helps the
grip - especially in the game. Should be an easy thing to figure out - just weigh the balls of
both teams ?

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Response to Laura PourMeADrink (Reply #1)

Thu Jan 22, 2015, 09:25 AM

2. I haven't been following deflategate much

 

As I understand it, the refs test the balls at the beginning of the game. They could be tampered with thereafter (although I think there are safeguards against that -- the team can't spirit them away into some back room), or their pressure could increase or decrease during the game without human intervention, or there could be an error in the pre-game or post-game testing.

Over/under isn't as simple as just picking the over without much analysis. You'd do better to bet sides and just pick the favorite. According to this website, "Favorites have gone 33-15 straight up and 26-18-2 against the spread in the Super Bowl. The ‘over/under’ has gone 24-23." As against that, the underdog has won the last three times.

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Response to Jim Lane (Reply #2)

Thu Jan 22, 2015, 02:00 PM

4. Update on Deflate-gate

The investigation for “Deflate-Gate”, the controversy the New England Patriots are involved in weeks before the Super Bowl, has already started and there are more details being exposed about the Patriots alleged cheating. The latest is the expose that the Baltimore Ravens had tipped off the Indianapolis Colts before the AFC championship game about the possibility that New England will be using deflated balls to their advantage.

The new “Deflate-Gate” report came from FOX Sports’ NFL Insider Jay Glazer, who also said that officials from the National Football League (NFL) were already on their way to inspecting the balls at halftime. Initial reports stated that the cause of the start of the investigation was when D'Qwell Jackson intercepted Tom Brady’s pass in the first half and Jackson reported it to his own team officials, who afterwards informed the league of the possibility that something is wrong with the balls being used for the game.

In a different and earlier report, the Patriots were found to have allegedly deflated 11 of 12 footballs they used in the conference championship game versus the Colts. According to many experts, a deflated football is easier to catch and throw, which means an easier time for the offence. NFL teams are allowed to use their own dozen footballs for each game so the advantage is one-sided.

"There's a huge advantage to having a deflated football," former NFL quarterback Mark Brunell said in SportsCenter segment on Wednesday. "It's like a basketball — if you take a little air out of it, it's easier to palm it.” The Patriots beat the Colts, 45-7 but the controversy has put the New England franchise under the microscope again. The Patriots have a history of “cheating” in the league as in 2007, the Patriots and Bill Belichick were fined $750,000 for being found guilty of spying on the opposition by stealing their hand signals on defence.

With the win over the Colts, the Patriots advanced to play the Seattle Seahawks in Super Bowl XLIX set to kick off on Feb. 1, 2015 in Glendale, Arizona.

“The investigation is currently underway and we’re still awaiting findings,” NFL's executive vice president for football operations Troy Vincent said as the cheating allegations started reaching the mainstream media in the United States. The investigation is said to be concluded days before the Super Bowl begins.


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Response to Jim Lane (Reply #2)

Thu Jan 22, 2015, 02:03 PM

5. Interesting about overs/unders vs. favorites....wonder if there is

a difference in the return on your money.

When we bet, we bet without analysis, just gut....so that tells you
what kind of newbies we are. Guess we were just lucky.

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Response to Jim Lane (Original post)

Thu Jan 22, 2015, 10:12 AM

3. I think some of the injuries and bang ups during the GB SH game will affect the outcome.

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