Jason Garrett is not typically regarded as a savvy 4th down decision maker, and his clock management skills aren’t the greatest either. Garrett consistently makes blunders in way too many of his strategic decisions. But even after all the mistakes he’s made as the Cowboys head coach, he somehow found a way to top every one of them with a single mistake in Week 2 against the Chiefs.

With 3:50 to play in the 4th quarter, Dallas trailed Kansas City 17-13. It was the Cowboys’ ball, but they faced a 4th and 10 from the Chiefs 35. They held all three of their timeouts and undoubtedly still had a decent opportunity to come away with a win. Garrett had a decision to make: should he go for it? Punt? Or a kick a field goal?

Based on the 4th down calculator, the Cowboys chose the worst of the three options, and it wasn’t even close.

The Cowboys chose to kick a field goal, and as you can see here, they potentially cost themselves .18 WP, or 18% of a win. Most heavily debated 4th down decisions come down to a few percentage points, but 18% is massive. It’s without a doubt the worst move any coach has made on 4th down this season, and it probably ranks as one of the worst 4th down decisions of all time.

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2013/09/jason-garrett-should-have-punted.html#more

El Supremo

(20,365 posts)

9. Jerral Jones called the play.

Reply to JonLP24 (Reply #8)

Mon Sep 16, 2013, 10:06 PM

Sep 2013

Or do you think it was Bill Callahan? It sure wasn't Jason Garrett.

Liberal_Dog

(11,075 posts)

10. And Exactly What Is Brian Burke's NFL Coaching Record?

Reply to JonLP24 (Reply #8)

Tue Sep 17, 2013, 12:35 PM

Sep 2013

Yeah... just what I thought it was.

Seriously, who cares what some internet blabbermouth thinks?

JonLP24

(29,322 posts)

11. I love his work

Reply to Liberal_Dog (Reply #10)

Tue Sep 17, 2013, 01:12 PM

Sep 2013

He uses statistics and mathematics to look at the game that many overlook or don't even think of. After week 4 you should check out his game probabilities which weighs several stats by each team but values n/ypa and d n/ypa the most heavily. They're incredibly accurate.

As far as drawing up plays, he probably wouldn't be much of a coach but deciding when to go for it, when not go for it, etc. He'd have a better record than most of these conservative minded coaches.

Belichick was one of the few coaches to take his 4th down probability models seriously years ago when first introduced. ESPN has the old clip, I have no idea where it is.

Also his Win Probability graphs are fun to follow during live games. He helps me picking games far more than any other resource out there for any sport.

Liberal_Dog

(11,075 posts)

12. Stats Are Fine

Reply to JonLP24 (Reply #11)

Tue Sep 17, 2013, 10:40 PM

Sep 2013

But you have to factor in what is actually going on in the game.

Romo completed 53 and 38 yd passes to Dez Bryant early in the game. Other than that, he completed 28 passes for 207 yds. Less than 8 yds per completion.

The Cowboys offense was having a difficult time getting the ball down the field.

Given that, what would you rather do: try to drive 80 yds needing a TD or 50 yds needing a FG?

Going for the FG was a reasonable gamble.

JonLP24

(29,322 posts)

13. You'd have to agree

Reply to Liberal_Dog (Reply #12)

Wed Sep 18, 2013, 09:53 AM

Sep 2013

that there is a win probability factor to whatever decision there is? That is what this is, he says punting the ball, likely pinning the ball deep is the better option because there is a likely possibility of a stop with decent field position with plenty of time left.

Garrett's choice that he argues is going for the FG (then making it) then getting the ball back after the Chiefs milk as much time as possible doesn't leave the Cowboys left with a reasonable amount of time to make the winning score which is exactly what happened.

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