Mayweather Forecast
Sept. 14
At Las Vegas (Showtime PPV): Floyd Mayweather Jr. vs. Canelo Alvarez, 12 rounds, WBA/WBC junior middleweight unification; Danny Garcia vs. Lucas Matthysse, 12 rounds, for Garcia's WBA/WBC junior welterweight title.
Two outstanding fights tomorrow night. First, let's look at the co-feature. Garcia, who was a top amateur and is now an undefeated pro, defends his titles against the man that many consider the hardest puncher in the sport. For much of his career, Garcia was a "boxer-puncher." In the past two years, he has relied upon his ability to maul opponents. And while it has worked thus far, two of the big names he beat were faded ex-champions. He did flatten Amir Khan, but had been badly hurt a round before he did -- so much so, that his corner was considering stopping the fight between rounds.
If he boxes Mattysse, landing power shots in spots, but not becoming a target, he can win. But that is a mighty big "if." Garcia has not shown defensive skills recently. And no one that size can take Mattysse's punches. Lucas has good boxing skills, and has learned from both of his loses (and both were close, disputed decisions). I favor Mattysse, because of his body-punching ability. He won his last bout with a devastating left hook to the liver.With everything else being fairly even going in, I believe that the body attack makes the difference.
Mayweather faces a bigger, younger foe in Alvarez. There's an old saying in boxing, that even a great champion can become old overnight in the ring. Bernard Hopkins has pointed out that this is an error: a fighter gets old in the gym. And, for the first time, Floyd has shown signs of the aging process in the gym. You can see it in his face -- which looks more and more like his Dad's -- and there are changes in his body.
Yet, he does not have the bad habits outside of the ring that accelerate the aging process. And only his hands have taken a great deal of punishment, relatively speaking, in the ring. He did damage his right hand in his last fight in May, and the hand injuries have been a serious issue since he turned professional. It is not a coincidence that, in training, we've seen Floyd concentrate far more than usual on body punches; there is far less risk of injuring either hand with a body punch, compared to a head shot. Also, Alvarez takes a good shot to the head -- he has been hurt before, but not by a man Floyd's size -- but body punches hurt everyone.
Alvarez has good hand-speed, a very good delivery (especially his left hook), and enough upper-body movement that he could present some problems in a jabbing dual with Floyd. I disagree with the "experts" that say he is stronger than Floyd, but because of his bigger size, he will be able to physically push Mayweather off-balance. This is especially true for when Floyd throws a lead right cross: he almost always steps in, and dips to his right, then steps out to the right. It may be the only pattern that I've ever picked up on with him. Be sure that Alvarez's trainers have, too.
That punch is going to land, no matter what anyone does. Floyd is that fast and accurate. Thus, the only question becomes, how do you respond? Most people simply take it in the face, while trying to cover up. Alvarez will roll the dice: he will be willing to take a hard shot, in order to bring his weight behind a left hook that lifts. Two results are possible: he will knock Floyd off-balance, where he is vulnerable; or he will be stunned by moving into a hard right cross.
The most likely outcome of this fight is Floyd by decision (even the first six rounds, with Floyd dominating the second half). But Floyd does want the knockout. Alvarez is determined to win by decision or knockout, and he has the tools necessary to win. It should be an outstanding fight.
(I'm heading to the gym with Marvis Frazier this afternoon, to train my son. And Marvis is watching the fights with us tomorrow night. It doesn't get any better than that!)
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