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littlemissmartypants

(22,418 posts)
Thu May 21, 2020, 02:21 AM May 2020

The Risks - Know Them - Avoid Them

The Risks - Know Them - Avoid Them
Updated: 14 hours ago

Erin Bromage
May 6 12 min
Please read this link to learn about the author and background to these posts.

https://www.erinbromage.com/post/about-the-author-professor-erin-bromage


It seems many people are breathing some relief, and I’m not sure why. An epidemic curve has a relatively predictable upslope and once the peak is reached, the back slope can also be predicted. We have robust data from the outbreaks in China and Italy, that shows the backside of the mortality curve declines slowly, with deaths persisting for months. Assuming we have just crested in deaths at 70k, it is possible that we lose another 70,000 people over the next 6 weeks as we come off that peak. That's what's going to happen with a lockdown.

As states reopen, and we give the virus more fuel, all bets are off. I understand the reasons for reopening the economy, but I've said before, if you don't solve the biology, the economy won't recover.

There are very few states that have demonstrated a sustained decline in numbers of new infections. Indeed, as of May 3rd the majority are still increasing and reopening. As a simple example of the USA trend, when you take out the data from New York and just look at the rest of the USA, daily case numbers are increasing. Bottom line: the only reason the total USA new case numbers look flat right now is because the New York City epidemic was so large and now it is being contained.

So throughout most of the country we are going to add fuel to the viral fire by reopening. It's going to happen if I like it or not, so my goal here is to try to guide you away from situations of high risk.

Snip...more at the link...
https://www.erinbromage.com/post/the-risks-know-them-avoid-them

❤lmsp

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The Risks - Know Them - Avoid Them (Original Post) littlemissmartypants May 2020 OP
I've shared this one a lot Freddie May 2020 #1
That's one of the better articles... Buckeye_Democrat May 2020 #2
I agree. And there are SO many MadLinguist May 2020 #3

Freddie

(9,231 posts)
1. I've shared this one a lot
Thu May 21, 2020, 06:52 AM
May 2020

I’m not so scared to go shopping anymore - wearing a mask and keeping distance of course. But what shouldn’t come back anytime soon is people up close for any reason, especially if a length of time is involved. Like concerts, movies, church services, plane travel. Family just decided to not fly to Florida for my son’s 30th birthday, too risky and that part of Florida (Palm Beach area) is a hot spot.

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