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Fri Sep 4, 2020, 08:35 PM

and seriously WHAT THE HELL IS THIS SHIT FROM 538......

Trump Has An Electoral College Advantage Again This Cycle

https://fivethirtyeight.com/videos/trump-has-an-electoral-college-advantage-again-this-cycle/ Itís a video or you have to listen. Ugh......ugh....ugh.......


14 replies, 1551 views

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Response to a kennedy (Original post)

Fri Sep 4, 2020, 08:37 PM

1. The polls won't have reflected the Atlantic article disaster yet.

Wait a few days for that shit to hit the fan.

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Response to The Velveteen Ocelot (Reply #1)

Fri Sep 4, 2020, 08:41 PM

2. Even so, what is this country's excuse?

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Response to dchill (Reply #2)

Fri Sep 4, 2020, 08:42 PM

3. That anybody voted for that clown for any reason will always baffle me.

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Response to The Velveteen Ocelot (Reply #1)

Fri Sep 4, 2020, 08:43 PM

4. Thanks Velveteen.......I always respect your posts, and opinions.

and youíre right.....will wait a couple of days to see how much the orange piece of shit falls in the polls.

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Response to a kennedy (Original post)

Fri Sep 4, 2020, 08:43 PM

5. I don't buy anything from 538 anymore. Look at what he did during the dem primaries

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Response to Thekaspervote (Reply #5)

Fri Sep 4, 2020, 08:46 PM

6. I wasn't following his coverage of the primaries. What did he do?

Please tell me so I feel better about his "trump approval" graph that shows approval going up fast, against ALL logic.

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Response to Squinch (Reply #6)

Fri Sep 4, 2020, 09:02 PM

8. After the first caucus nights in IA & NH 538 said that sanders would win 49 states

Despite the fact that sanders vote take was down 15% from 16, and the youth vote that silver and sanders said would bring him a win never materialized

More about his polling, 94 lack of at the link

https://www.commondreams.org/views/2019/10/30/nate-silver-making-he-goes

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Response to Thekaspervote (Reply #8)

Fri Sep 4, 2020, 09:05 PM

10. Thank you. I feel better. But, seriously? He fell for that youth vote Lucy football? Wow.

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Response to Squinch (Reply #10)

Fri Sep 4, 2020, 09:31 PM

11. Yes! People think silver is a dem..he is not! A self ascribed libertarian

Look at the link to common dreams I mentioned. Itís fair, but pretty much lays out what heís doing.

A really good poll aggregator, much better than 538 is the economist

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Response to Thekaspervote (Reply #11)

Sat Sep 5, 2020, 07:07 AM

13. Thank you. I'll check it out.

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Response to a kennedy (Original post)

Fri Sep 4, 2020, 08:50 PM

7. Nope. At worst it is a tie via the electoral college. Cook currently shows Biden leading in the

electoral college, and that is before the Atlantic article

I suspect they are using 2016 models, which is not applicable

According to recent polls most of those who voted for Jill Stein will be voting for Biden, and I suspect that applies to the 47% who didnít vote in 2016

Just looking at polls in the battle ground states Biden/Harris have an edge

As long as we register people at get the vote out by encouraging people to vote early, and by mail if possible we will win

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Response to still_one (Reply #7)

Fri Sep 4, 2020, 09:03 PM

9. Thank you...voice of sanity

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Response to still_one (Reply #7)

Mon Sep 7, 2020, 07:08 PM

14. I agree...

So much has changed since 2016 that those models aren't worth much today.

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Response to a kennedy (Original post)

Fri Sep 4, 2020, 11:39 PM

12. "The reason Trump has a 30% chance and not a 15% chance, or 10% chance..."

... is because of the Electoral College." ( https://www.youtube.com/watch?t=8m5s&v=T7XcqSv6YSQ )

"There are scenarios where Biden could win the popular vote by four and a half points and still lose the Electoral College..." ( https://www.youtube.com/watch?t=9m26s&v=T7XcqSv6YSQ )

NateSilver538

Chance of a Biden Electoral college win if he wins the popular vote by X points:

0-1 points: just 6%!
1-2 points: 22%
2-3 points: 46%
3-4 points: 74%
4-5 points: 89%
5-6 points: 98%
6-7 points: 99%

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/statuses/1301190941110341632


Strange that people think the Electoral College works in Trump's favor Ė in 2016 he lost the popular vote by 2.1 points, yet somehow received more votes in the Electoral College.

Biden is favored to win the election

Biden wins 71 in 100
Trump wins 29 in 100

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

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