Hamas likely to sit out on Palestinian Authority's presidential election in May

[Jefferson23]

Hamas sources say no decision has yet been made, but most senior officials lean toward forgoing the presidential ballot and running only in the parliamentary election.

By Avi Issacharoff

Hamas is considering not running a candidate in the Palestinian Authority’s presidential election, which is expected to take place in May 2012, at the same time as elections for the Palestinian parliament and the PLO’s Palestine National Council.

Hamas sources said no decision has yet been made by the organization’s leadership, but most senior Hamas officials lean toward forgoing the presidential ballot and running only in the parliamentary election. Yet Hamas is thought to have a decent chance of winning a presidential race, because PA President Mahmoud Abbas has repeatedly said he will not run for reelection.

Marwan Barghouti, the most senior Fatah prisoner being held by Israel, has said he plans on running to replace Abbas. But since he is still in prison, it is not clear whether he will be able to do so.

A Hamas victory in the presidential election could put the organization into a difficult political and diplomatic position, as Israel might well not allow a Hamas president to act freely, and might even arrest him.

in full: http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/news/hamas-likely-to-sit-out-on-palestinian-authority-s-presidential-election-in-may-1.404514

[Ruby the Liberal]

1. I am not as up to date on the election strategies as I should be

but do these parties each run for Parliament with their chosen leader to be the representative "President" if voted into the majority like Israel does (vote for a party, not a person, winning party's top dawg is then PM)?

Otherwise, what good would it do to run/not run someone for the top seat and just focus on Parliament unless the message is being sent that the top spot is just a figure head? Only thing I can think is to keep power while not having the responsibility of being the 'face' of the government.

[azurnoir]

2. Perhap reading the entire article could answer your question

Hamas leaders both in Gaza and abroad view Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood as a model. The Brotherhood has decided to focus its political effort on running for parliament, not the presidency, and to seek to exert influence mainly in social matters.

Moreover, Hamas’ rule over the Gaza Strip does not bode well for its ability to manage the entire PA, given its diplomatic isolation and its constant conflicts with Israel.

As a result, many senior Hamas leaders are demanding that the movement forgo the presidential election. But its deputy foreign minister, Razi Hamed, told Haaretz that no final decision has been made.

Hamas is also planning to focus on the elections for PLO institutions, where it hopes to at least match Fatah, and possibly even achieve a majority in the Palestine National Council. Its entry into the PLO could persuade several Arab states to end their boycott of Hamas.

____________________________________________________________________

of course the fact that polls going back a couple of years show that Hamas would almost certainly lose this is in contrast Issacharoff's claims of almost certain victory but without that the article is quite moot

[Ruby the Liberal]

3. That doesn't answer my question, but it does bring up another good point

Does anyone believe that Hamas wants nothing to do with the peace negotiations and is happy to sit on the back bench to "exert influence mainly in social matters"?

Thats why I asked. I don't see what they have to gain from this strategy, and if their influence is large enough to make a difference, it seems to me that they will bring down the PLO rather than gain legitimacy as a 'partner for peace'.

[azurnoir]

4. as I stated I find the entire 'analysis' questionable

this is due to the fact that all of the 'warm fuzzy' unity talk is coming from Khaled Meshaal whom has been in exile for more than a decade rather than from inside Gaza, if anything Abbas is causing Hamas an internal split. As to bringing down the PLO please do not too concerned yet as I have stated unless something has changed polls have consistently shown Hamas losing Parliamentary seats and a Presidential election

[Ruby the Liberal]

5. You bring up an excellent point about Meshaal

"Leader in exile" to me is questionable. They won the election and they are the party in power - so why the need to 'exile' Meshaal?

I get that he is the top diplomat with Iran, Hezbollah and Syria (et al), but wouldn't that have more credibility if the self imposed 'exile' ended with the election?

Seems more of a game to me, IMO - that no matter the steps taken in earnest by the Palestinian people to elect and form a government, there will never be "a government" until they (those in power) have the whole shootin' match.

What other group out there holds the reins to government AND has their "leader" in self-imposed exile in a foreign nation (for years) - and on top of that, bugs him (and his team) out to yet ANOTHER foreign nation(s) when things get dicy?

[azurnoir]

6. Meshaal has never liived in Gaza he was not exiled by Hamas

he was born in the West Bank when it was under Jordanian rule and his family moved to Kuwait after 1967, he has moved to various locations in ME over the years, his actual exile was from Jordan in 1999 after the Jordanian government banned Hamas There was also a failed assassination attempt in 1997 reputedly by Mossad

[Ruby the Liberal]

7. I know his history - why I said 'self-imposed exile'

[azurnoir]

8. His exile is not self imposed Jordan imposed it

however I must question if you were aware why make comments that would allude without of course actually saying that it is Hamas who exiled him? as seen here

""Leader in exile" to me is questionable. They won the election and they are the party in power - so why the need to 'exile' Meshaal? "

then of course in the paragraph claim the exile is somehow self imposed, it is not

as Israel has already attempted once to assassinate him I can see why he would be hesitant to move either to the West Bank or Gaza, where he would indeed be a much easier target

[Ruby the Liberal]

9. Thats Jordan, not Israel, not Gaza and not the Territories.

He chooses to remain "in exile", then that is "self imposed" - regardless of his reasons.

[azurnoir]

10. are you claiming that Israel would allow him into the West Bank?

that would be interesting to say the least however I never said that Israel imposed Meshaal's exile his family fled the West Bank in 1967 after Israel invaded and occupied it , indeed he has been exiled from his chosen countries of residence twice once from Kuwait and again from Jordan he is no more in self imposed exile than any other Palestinian in Diaspora , he can not be said to be in exile from Gaza because he never lived there

[Ruby the Liberal]

11. Honestly?

From a political perspective, I can't see where they would have a choice/say in the matter.

That said, as you mentioned - the security he would require is a different conversation and could make the conversation moot, but on paper, I highly doubt you will ever see a formal 'no entry' stance from the Israeli government.

One could see that even in the Damascus bug out - no one (that I recall) was willing to put a formal 'denied' stamp on his passport, but several countries were ruled out as options, couched in the language of the diplomatic corps, of course.

[azurnoir]

12. Israel has no say in who enters the territory it militarily occupies, do tell please

that is a completely new one on me but if you say so

however as of 2 days ago Meshaal was still in Damascus word has it he is preparing to leave for Qatar and according to Ynet Qatar is making overtures to Jordan to allow Meshaal to return

[Ruby the Liberal]

13. Has anything been published about him considering Israel

or the territories (why/why not or yes/no)?

I am not being contentious - I am genuinely curious if it even came up anywhere.

It may be a given, but would be interesting to see.

[azurnoir]

14. No it has not however an Israeli assasination attempt would be negative incentive to live territory

under Israeli control or even close surveillance such as Gaza

[Ruby the Liberal]

15. It still would have been nice to have an 'asked and answered'

on the record though - regardless of who declines and for what reason.

[azurnoir]

16. would you say that your caveat applies to every Palestinian refugee? n/t

[Ruby the Liberal]

17. Nope - specific to the ones who claim leadership in the duly

elected government.

Nice try though. Props.

[azurnoir]

18. oh so only the inconvient ones? I see no difference between the 2 groups though

and are you saying that Hamas is the duly elected government in Gaza, surely you know better?

[Ruby the Liberal]

19. Yes, Hamas is the duly elected leadership

and if you see no difference between refugee camps and elected government officials/spox, then I will let you have the last word on this as there is no way to dispute that perception.

[azurnoir]

20. Hamas won the majority of Parliamentary seats in both the West Bank and Gaza

some which no more makes the Palestinian leadership than the Republicans are the US leadership however I can understand your wish to make Palestinian leaders and "spox" somehow different from other refugees