The West's expectations of Sunni monarchies

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http://atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/MID-01-061014.html



The West's expectations of Sunni monarchies
By Brian M Downing
Oct 6, '14

The unexpected Islamic State offensive into Iraq has rattled capitals and altered political dynamics in the Gulf. Led by Saudi Arabia, the Sunni monarchies were moving away from the United States owing to its support for democracy in the region and its effort to reopen ties with Iran, which the Sunni states deem a heretical land and a geopolitical threat.

The Sunnis, by necessity, have now realigned more closely with the US, Britain, and France. Though the duration of this move is uncertain, persistent military problems in the region suggest it will last longer than the present crisis. Western Europe is far less dependent on Gulf oil than in decades past; the US has shifted mainly to Canada and Mexico for its energy needs and will be self-sufficient in about 16 years - a blink of the eye in strategic thinking. The West will certainly look for something in return from the last of the monarchies.

Security shortcomings

The Sunni states are unable to defend the region from the disciplined, aggressive, but relatively small, lightly equipped forces of IS. Despite lavish expenditures, extensive training programs, and impressive numbers of battalions and squadrons, Gulf armies are deeply flawed by corruption, tribal and sectarian fissures, and poor leadership. There is no reason to expect reform, especially when outside forces are available to provide security.

Regional security is also limited by sectarian hostility, which has reached new highs with the demise of Sunni control in Iraq and the rise of Iran's nuclear program. Shia troops from Iran are unable to act decisively in Iraq without triggering fears and reactions from Sunni states. Sunni troops cannot intervene without triggering the same responses in Iran.